Token Launches · resolved market
Farcaster airdrop in 2024?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x46ff3b7fd5e5d377c41f66a67b28e9176631ac8e6c48c0dc539b8334a1f8e7e2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $200,374
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $222,897
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $200,374 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x583d…1557backed Yes | 1c | 10,922$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb733…c872backed Yes | 1c | 10,300$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa256…2029backed Yes | 1c | 10,126$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6594…5b57backed Yes | 1c | 9,910$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 2,392$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.13 | 333 | 29.7%99 W · 234 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d4…f46abacked Yes | 1c | 1,976$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 5cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9038…3c1dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,114$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…a495backed Yes | 2c | 688.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6faf…6a86backed Yes | 6c | 599.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96fc…cc0bbacked Yes | 9c | 576.1$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.24 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58dd…6ff5backed Yes | 2c | 529.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.30per pick | 33cpaid | +166.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x388a…4002backed Yes | 5c | 469.21$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x810a…923dbacked Yes | 6c | 400$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7bc…504abacked Yes | 8c | 398.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +287.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf32e…8834backed Yes | 3c | 348.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde79…06abbacked Yes | 5c | 314.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae5c…17c6backed Yes | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17c7…e86fbacked Yes | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51fe…7fecbacked Yes | 7c | 300$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9259…8428backed Yes | 5c | 300$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf145…8274backed Yes | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe344…80f6backed Yes | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b89…baa4backed Yes | 3c | 288.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +112.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5121…1997backed Yes | 5c | 244.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa4…c643backed Yes | 7c | 203.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f38…1e75backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41aa…a181backed Yes | 6c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbc…e4e6backed Yes | 6c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f41…aea1backed Yes | 7c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfadb…8296backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7109…b176backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf697…fb8bbacked Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38fa…cafebacked Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e1…b31bbacked Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe0…4784backed Yes | 6c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0284…82a4backed Yes | 5c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf730…3936backed Yes | 6c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1c…2a94backed Yes | 7c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20c2…611dbacked Yes | 5c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f7…08aebacked Yes | 10c | 187.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc767…ef0fbacked Yes | 7c | 174.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed Yes | 15c | 96.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -4.7wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xef4e…7c57backed No | 68c | 78.36$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.76 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8111…489dbacked No | 77c | 72.47$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.89 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +4.7wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2359…b704backed Yes | 24c | 69.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb482…fbc7backed No | 74c | 67.3$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.3 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10ee…151cbacked No | 70c | 66.85$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1332…762dbacked Yes | 23c | 65.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb4f…8f5cbacked Yes | 23c | 64.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4294…ee29backed No | 77c | 51.95$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 63cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3d…8db7backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.19per pick | 40cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67fb…796abacked No | 78c | 41.36$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb4b…4738backed No | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc559…e74cbacked No | 65c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +105.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Farcaster airdrop in 2024?this page
- Aleo airdrop in 2024?No won
- Astaria airdrop in 2024?No won
- Avail airdrop in 2024?No won
- Base airdrop in 2024?No won
- Berachain airdrop in 2024?No won
- Jumper airdrop in 2024?No won
- Linea airdrop in 2024?No won
- MetaMask airdrop in 2024?No won
- PartyDAO airdrop in 2024?No won
- Pudgy Penguins airdrop in 2024?Yes won
- Puffer airdrop in 2024?Yes won
- Pump.fun airdrop in 2024?No won
- Rabby airdrop in 2024?No won
- Rainbow airdrop in 2024?No won
- Scroll airdrop in 2024?Yes won
- Swell airdrop in 2024?Yes won
- Zircuit airdrop in 2024?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.