Token Launches · resolved market
Avail airdrop in 2024?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8e96ea6137f65267faf7c44890d5d776108ef44a9847cc72da54724b9c0a423d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,721
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,981
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,721 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4337…8882backed No | 79c | 2,584$2,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$534.71 | 118 | 33.9%40 W · 78 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8e…0cc4backed Yes | 12c | 2,218$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.59 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +3.4wins | +0.16per pick | 16cpaid | +295.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb41a…1935backed Yes | 42c | 1,205$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.84 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.18per pick | 24cpaid | -91.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 27c | 937.19$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.95 | 134 | 24.6%33 W · 101 L | -14.8wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 5c | 865.78$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.48 | 333 | 29.7%99 W · 234 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b4…770dbacked Yes | 2c | 610.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +3.4wins | +0.17per pick | 28cpaid | +281.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x729c…e871backed Yes | 43c | 567.21$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9a1…35fabacked No | 58c | 500$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57cd…ea68backed Yes | 42c | 500$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cae…68f6backed No | 61c | 330.15$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8853…c3a9backed Yes | 11c | 262.32$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.07 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7a…3de0backed Yes | 32c | 258.5$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.72 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd980…5be0backed Yes | 20c | 254.73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 4c | 252.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 45 | 8.9%4 W · 41 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95a3…046ebacked No | 11c | 242.29$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.64 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +337.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d7…5c54backed Yes | 7c | 201.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0839…e88ebacked Yes | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcabf…c2d7backed Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf756…0fe0backed Yes | 16c | 126.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb8e…1d33backed No | 75c | 105$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a85…37c8backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae61…4e32backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…e952backed Yes | 36c | 89.44$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.18 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 29c | 88.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.31 | 79 | 19%15 W · 64 L | -6.0wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…fd27backed Yes | 30c | 76.76$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe6b…f255backed Yes | 34c | 57.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -52%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed Yes | 33c | 50.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -4.7wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8010…f104backed No | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x132a…4830backed No | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 40cpaid | +129.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe5…1f66backed No | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x573a…544cbacked Yes | 23c | 47.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf66…9ac6backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6783…2179backed No | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x301f…22f2backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Avail airdrop in 2024?this page
- Aleo airdrop in 2024?No won
- Astaria airdrop in 2024?No won
- Base airdrop in 2024?No won
- Berachain airdrop in 2024?No won
- Farcaster airdrop in 2024?No won
- Jumper airdrop in 2024?No won
- Linea airdrop in 2024?No won
- MetaMask airdrop in 2024?No won
- PartyDAO airdrop in 2024?No won
- Pudgy Penguins airdrop in 2024?Yes won
- Puffer airdrop in 2024?Yes won
- Pump.fun airdrop in 2024?No won
- Rabby airdrop in 2024?No won
- Rainbow airdrop in 2024?No won
- Scroll airdrop in 2024?Yes won
- Swell airdrop in 2024?Yes won
- Zircuit airdrop in 2024?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.