Rabby airdrop in 2024?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xab1fe62c869e0e20bdede248afdfe7c9a401ab109595403d08e2ee542e49fa65

Rebuilt 4 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 1, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $168,274
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $265,686

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $168,274 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x07d4…8991backed Yes	4c	13,679$611 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$611.41	62	6.5%4 W · 58 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-76.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x55b4…80eabacked Yes	1c	3,099$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.5	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	+1.3wins	+0.10per pick	36cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4645…7101backed Yes	8c	1,472$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.63	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-1.4wins	-0.13per pick	22cpaid	-30.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xde79…06abbacked Yes	11c	1,319$146 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$146.07	47	21.3%10 W · 37 L	-2.4wins	-0.05per pick	26cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	2c	1,222$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.16	333	29.7%99 W · 234 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	30cpaid	-42.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd8a3…cd82backed Yes	4c	1,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	37cpaid	-55.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb017…a4f7backed Yes	13c	855.39$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.37	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-1.1wins	-0.11per pick	21cpaid	-86.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe9a1…35fabacked Yes	17c	750$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$127.5	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	36cpaid	-31.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6126…87eebacked Yes	9c	510.49$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.02	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xad67…d6e0backed Yes	6c	506.67$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	47	23.4%11 W · 36 L	-1.7wins	-0.04per pick	27cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x87fb…9ad0backed Yes	9c	472.9$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.79	16	25%4 W · 12 L	-2.3wins	-0.15per pick	40cpaid	-58.1%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes	10c	401.81$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.95	134	24.6%33 W · 101 L	-14.8wins	-0.11per pick	36cpaid	-33.9%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x18a7…d21abacked Yes	6c	375.96$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.13	45	8.9%4 W · 41 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	-51.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xda8e…ae5dbacked Yes	17c	371.37$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.32	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	+0.7wins	+0.08per pick	29cpaid	+40.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b1f…78eabacked Yes	27c	366.22$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.99	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	24cpaid	-59%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8ba…a286backed Yes	12c	312.69$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.52	10	20%2 W · 8 L	-2.3wins	-0.23per pick	43cpaid	-69.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes	5c	308.26$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.74	28	0%0 W · 28 L	-2.3wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe7bc…504abacked Yes	11c	272.73$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	30	20%6 W · 24 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	18cpaid	+287.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x717d…5b34backed Yes	8c	190.83$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.9	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9015…76cdbacked Yes	13c	169.89$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.56	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x3ba2…4f27backed Yes	12c	167.93$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.97	22	22.7%5 W · 17 L	-1.5wins	-0.07per pick	30cpaid	-28%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d5b…6be4backed Yes	12c	166.67$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1edf…0d4fbacked Yes	13c	161.54$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc286…aa96backed Yes	17c	145.69$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.19	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.23per pick	23cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0aff…782fbacked Yes	12c	110.16$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.22	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x61f7…08aebacked Yes	14c	105$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-2.6wins	-0.24per pick	24cpaid	-100%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xccc7…e7b6backed No	75c	100.37$75 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.09	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.24per pick	77cpaid	+30.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd7f8…89e4backed Yes	11c	100$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+1.1wins	+0.19per pick	31cpaid	+68.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x415c…3c94backed Yes	16c	74.06$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.03	30	16.7%5 W · 25 L	-4.7wins	-0.16per pick	32cpaid	-41.4%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x97af…9bc6backed No	79c	69.99$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.7	14	57.1%8 W · 6 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a6d…e335backed Yes	30c	60.54$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.99	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.30per pick	30cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x620a…1687backed No	78c	50$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.2wins	+0.22per pick	78cpaid	+28.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe6b…f255backed No	36c	37.37$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.94	25	16%4 W · 21 L	-2.1wins	-0.09per pick	25cpaid	-52%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x41bb…2526backed No	74c	25$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.5	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+0.7wins	+0.12per pick	55cpaid	+24.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Rabby airdrop in 2024?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event