Token Launches · resolved market
Base airdrop in 2024?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x49f71d1ed2b275d7ed158693abaff18508b39f19224cff5c57eac46ce7287b19
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $381,877
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $488,345
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $381,877 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd212…3610backed Yes | 4c | 29,999$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,099.98 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 1c | 6,130$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.82 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 3cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3295…6c07backed Yes | 9c | 5,926$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d4…f46abacked Yes | 0c | 5,538$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.59 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 5cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc720…831bbacked Yes | 1c | 4,958$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d7…5c54backed Yes | 4c | 4,923$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.84 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 4,147$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.67 | 333 | 29.7%99 W · 234 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9912…440cbacked Yes | 4c | 3,990$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…1e10backed Yes | 6c | 3,202$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd22…2df2backed Yes | 2c | 3,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00cf…06f1backed Yes | 8c | 2,824$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 31cpaid | -84.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 3c | 2,421$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.32 | 45 | 8.9%4 W · 41 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 2,123$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 57 | 1.8%1 W · 56 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +116.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0020…0d22backed Yes | 2c | 2,050$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a07…50e7backed Yes | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -81.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde79…06abbacked Yes | 5c | 1,997$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.45 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37f8…d3eabacked Yes | 6c | 1,963$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.62 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeee1…8d64backed Yes | 4c | 1,848$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.62 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x219e…8518backed Yes | 6c | 1,826$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47b6…c65fbacked Yes | 6c | 1,677$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4645…7101backed Yes | 7c | 1,626$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.31 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 22cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1743…655ebacked Yes | 8c | 1,146$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.61 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96fc…cc0bbacked Yes | 6c | 1,083$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 4c | 994.47$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.58 | 79 | 19%15 W · 64 L | -6.0wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6faf…6a86backed Yes | 5c | 967.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdb4…c07fbacked Yes | 6c | 964.88$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.89 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…d902backed Yes | 4c | 746.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb18b…42b1backed Yes | 7c | 714.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d6…745dbacked Yes | 3c | 699.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd22a…8d23backed Yes | 5c | 699.91$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc67e…b892backed Yes | 31c | 636.34$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.98 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 2c | 618.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 80 | 52.5%42 W · 38 L | +11.1wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf59b…f978backed Yes | 8c | 613.39$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e6…84a8backed Yes | 7c | 606.56$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ee…0991backed Yes | 7c | 558.93$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 4c | 538.13$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.51 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fb…974abacked Yes | 4c | 525.71$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4687…f67ebacked Yes | 5c | 499.93$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…e952backed Yes | 4c | 489.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc53d…54afbacked Yes | 4c | 449.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc04e…3ae3backed Yes | 6c | 424.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 8cpaid | +386.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7088…cb23backed Yes | 4c | 421.74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f9…27fbbacked Yes | 9c | 419.34$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d92…ab61backed Yes | 4c | 399.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c5d…2fafbacked Yes | 7c | 397.66$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b5…a2e3backed Yes | 6c | 388.94$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.93 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf49b…add9backed Yes | 18c | 341.98$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7509…1cd2backed Yes | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf91…f15ebacked Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb273…f1a1backed Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0c…2924backed Yes | 6c | 299.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a36…d8ecbacked Yes | 4c | 299.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x380f…050dbacked Yes | 5c | 299.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa88d…221cbacked No | 38c | 295.29$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.08 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 33cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8429…e7b0backed Yes | 16c | 267.55$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96f3…9d98backed Yes | 10c | 261$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 30cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84b1…c7ccbacked Yes | 4c | 252.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6484…8864backed Yes | 4c | 238.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x946a…d34abacked Yes | 5c | 236.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 8c | 231.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 134 | 24.6%33 W · 101 L | -14.8wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x78f0…e4cabacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb3…0eedbacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c22…7039backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9a…1e27backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x295d…accebacked Yes | 6c | 196.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe57…bbc0backed Yes | 10c | 190$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8da…d4b4backed Yes | 6c | 168.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b3…c4f2backed Yes | 7c | 157.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5e…64ddbacked Yes | 7c | 150$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a20…101cbacked No | 21c | 142$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.18 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.49per pick | 11cpaid | +664.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x089a…4bd5backed Yes | 8c | 140$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97af…9bc6backed Yes | 8c | 129.92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8f…f082backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9103…9931backed Yes | 15c | 95.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd13…e6f1backed No | 21c | 47.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.83 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 12cpaid | +118.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Base airdrop in 2024?this page
- Aleo airdrop in 2024?No won
- Astaria airdrop in 2024?No won
- Avail airdrop in 2024?No won
- Berachain airdrop in 2024?No won
- Farcaster airdrop in 2024?No won
- Jumper airdrop in 2024?No won
- Linea airdrop in 2024?No won
- MetaMask airdrop in 2024?No won
- PartyDAO airdrop in 2024?No won
- Pudgy Penguins airdrop in 2024?Yes won
- Puffer airdrop in 2024?Yes won
- Pump.fun airdrop in 2024?No won
- Rabby airdrop in 2024?No won
- Rainbow airdrop in 2024?No won
- Scroll airdrop in 2024?Yes won
- Swell airdrop in 2024?Yes won
- Zircuit airdrop in 2024?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.