TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

Base airdrop in 2024?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$381,877
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$488,345

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $381,877 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd212…3610backed Yes4c29,999$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,099.9830%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf55e…0c66backed Yes1c6,130$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.82812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick3cpaid-22.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3295…6c07backed Yes9c5,926$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$560.110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0d4…f46abacked Yes0c5,538$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.59911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick5cpaid-71.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc720…831bbacked Yes1c4,958$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6d7…5c54backed Yes4c4,923$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.84812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick8cpaid+33.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes2c4,147$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.6733329.7%99 W · 234 L+0.2wins0.00per pick30cpaid-42.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9912…440cbacked Yes4c3,990$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57a8…1e10backed Yes6c3,202$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd22…2df2backed Yes2c3,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x00cf…06f1backed Yes8c2,824$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2231010%1 W · 9 L-2.1wins-0.21per pick31cpaid-84.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x18a7…d21abacked Yes3c2,421$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.32458.9%4 W · 41 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-51.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes0c2,123$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.48571.8%1 W · 56 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick0cpaid+116.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0020…0d22backed Yes2c2,050$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.430%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a07…50e7backed Yes5c2,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.99812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick21cpaid-81.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde79…06abbacked Yes5c1,997$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.454721.3%10 W · 37 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x37f8…d3eabacked Yes6c1,963$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.62333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeee1…8d64backed Yes4c1,848$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.6230%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x219e…8518backed Yes6c1,826$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.4710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47b6…c65fbacked Yes6c1,677$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.6520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4645…7101backed Yes7c1,626$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.31119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.13per pick22cpaid-30.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1743…655ebacked Yes8c1,146$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.61425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-63.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96fc…cc0bbacked Yes6c1,083$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-54.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes4c994.47$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.587919%15 W · 64 L-6.0wins-0.08per pick27cpaid-63.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6faf…6a86backed Yes5c967.25$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501811.1%2 W · 16 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick8cpaid-35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfdb4…c07fbacked Yes6c964.88$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.8930%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf6f6…d902backed Yes4c746.11$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.8410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb18b…42b1backed Yes7c714.29$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4d6…745dbacked Yes3c699.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick18cpaid-71.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd22a…8d23backed Yes5c699.91$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc67e…b892backed Yes31c636.34$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.982240.9%9 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-30.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe0a2…a349backed Yes2c618.55$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.968052.5%42 W · 38 L+11.1wins+0.14per pick39cpaid+40.5%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xf59b…f978backed Yes8c613.39$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0e6…84a8backed Yes7c606.56$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.21428.6%4 W · 10 L-2.1wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-55.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb3ee…0991backed Yes7c558.93$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick24cpaid-64.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes4c538.13$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.51280%0 W · 28 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf9fb…974abacked Yes4c525.71$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4687…f67ebacked Yes5c499.93$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-24.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x167a…e952backed Yes4c489.61$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.584017.5%7 W · 33 L+0.1wins0.00per pick17cpaid-57.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc53d…54afbacked Yes4c449.07$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.4610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc04e…3ae3backed Yes6c424.15$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick8cpaid+386.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7088…cb23backed Yes4c421.74$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-29.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa7f9…27fbbacked Yes9c419.34$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.530%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d92…ab61backed Yes4c399.97$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c5d…2fafbacked Yes7c397.66$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.8420%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd3b5…a2e3backed Yes6c388.94$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.9340%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf49b…add9backed Yes18c341.98$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7509…1cd2backed Yes6c300$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184332.6%14 W · 29 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick31cpaid+17.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf91…f15ebacked Yes5c300$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb273…f1a1backed Yes5c300$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a0c…2924backed Yes6c299.99$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a36…d8ecbacked Yes4c299.96$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x380f…050dbacked Yes5c299.95$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa88d…221cbacked No38c295.29$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.08757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.24per pick33cpaid+20.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8429…e7b0backed Yes16c267.55$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.8110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x96f3…9d98backed Yes10c261$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.18per pick30cpaid-79.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x84b1…c7ccbacked Yes4c252.93$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick27cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6484…8864backed Yes4c238.1$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x946a…d34abacked Yes5c236.25$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.58250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-30.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes8c231.9$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1813424.6%33 W · 101 L-14.8wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-33.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x78f0…e4cabacked Yes5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fb3…0eedbacked Yes5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-32.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c22…7039backed Yes5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d9a…1e27backed Yes10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x295d…accebacked Yes6c196.67$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe57…bbc0backed Yes10c190$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1920%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd8da…d4b4backed Yes6c168.33$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7b3…c4f2backed Yes7c157.14$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1150%0 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1d5e…64ddbacked Yes7c150$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-29.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a20…101cbacked No21c142$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.18560%3 W · 2 L+2.5wins+0.49per pick11cpaid+664.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x089a…4bd5backed Yes8c140$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.260%0 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x97af…9bc6backed Yes8c129.92$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.391457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-15.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a8f…f082backed Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1050%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9103…9931backed Yes15c95.27$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd13…e6f1backed No21c47.89$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.83633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.21per pick12cpaid+118.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.