MetaMask airdrop in 2024?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6dd9c889311efd117b78c496cadadefe52ca42cec51df29a50c4afff8bd274bc

Rebuilt 5 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 1, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $276,843
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $310,242

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $276,843 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xa8eb…72bdbacked Yes	3c	20,333$533 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$533.38	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcba3…6055backed Yes	5c	8,939$461 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$460.97	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	2c	7,881$161 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$161.41	333	29.7%99 W · 234 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	30cpaid	-42.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa0d4…f46abacked Yes	0c	7,618$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.34	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	+0.6wins	+0.06per pick	5cpaid	-71.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x60f3…1bddbacked Yes	2c	7,127$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160.43	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes	5c	4,838$259 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$259.35	79	19%15 W · 64 L	-6.0wins	-0.08per pick	27cpaid	-63.4%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes	1c	4,180$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.07	45	6.7%3 W · 42 L	+1.7wins	+0.04per pick	3cpaid	+272.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf97d…55ebbacked Yes	1c	3,719$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.31per pick	31cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xde79…06abbacked Yes	5c	3,682$167 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$166.89	47	21.3%10 W · 37 L	-2.4wins	-0.05per pick	26cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x18a7…d21abacked Yes	3c	2,914$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.11	45	8.9%4 W · 41 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	-51.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf51…a037backed Yes	2c	2,802$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.26per pick	26cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf55e…0c66backed Yes	2c	2,015$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.33	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	+0.7wins	+0.09per pick	3cpaid	-22.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4be5…e1ccbacked Yes	6c	1,600$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.35per pick	35cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4645…7101backed Yes	5c	1,209$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.39	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-1.4wins	-0.13per pick	22cpaid	-30.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe252…8ab9backed Yes	1c	1,173$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.99	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa3b7…520dbacked Yes	5c	1,041$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.01	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.4wins	-0.07per pick	23cpaid	-45.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e5a…d56ebacked Yes	5c	1,011$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	56	23.2%13 W · 43 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	21cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6d7…5c54backed Yes	5c	1,000$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.66	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	+0.3wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28f2…7db0backed Yes	5c	999.12$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x569e…a9d7backed Yes	4c	948.26$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Yes	4c	914.2$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.79	118	33.9%40 W · 78 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	34cpaid	-36.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x34c2…f6fbbacked Yes	1c	681.61$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.01	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x70c4…a2f3backed Yes	5c	620.91$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe7b3…c4f2backed Yes	4c	514.03$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-1.2wins	-0.24per pick	24cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xecb5…610bbacked Yes	10c	503.56$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.0wins	-0.20per pick	40cpaid	-46.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f01…663cbacked Yes	10c	499.9$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.99	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xeda3…5e71backed Yes	5c	384.62$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x61f7…08aebacked Yes	6c	308.67$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-2.6wins	-0.24per pick	24cpaid	-100%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8f38…1e75backed Yes	5c	300$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.5	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x113b…a8f8backed Yes	4c	300$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.4	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf28…4d47backed Yes	6c	260.98$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.5	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7509…1cd2backed Yes	6c	246.46$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.79	43	32.6%14 W · 29 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	31cpaid	+17.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ba2…4f27backed Yes	8c	238.24$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.06	22	22.7%5 W · 17 L	-1.5wins	-0.07per pick	30cpaid	-28%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5dc1…f30bbacked Yes	6c	200$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.1	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a9…48b9backed No	36c	83.65$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53.28	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+2.6wins	+0.44per pick	23cpaid	+424.7%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

MetaMask airdrop in 2024?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event