Token Launches · resolved market
Swell airdrop in 2024?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8db17fbccdddc6549f449c752c2742eae20405d6bc45689cf90c172bdf16a72b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $537,132
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $660,628
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $537,132 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd3ed…09fcbacked No | 0c | 130,895$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620.41 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x168b…0450backed No | 1c | 42,228$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551.49 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.16per pick | 25cpaid | +72.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c94…0d19backed No | 0c | 15,688$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed No | 0c | 15,371$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.45 | 84 | 8.3%7 W · 77 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ac…c2aabacked No | 1c | 15,284$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.65 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked No | 0c | 11,593$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.54 | 57 | 1.8%1 W · 56 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +116.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x574e…3ef1backed No | 12c | 11,051$1,342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,341.83 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +7.7wins | +0.27per pick | 26cpaid | +103.1%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe13b…8a63backed No | 11c | 10,260$1,173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,173.46 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -89.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1111…ca23backed No | 1c | 10,019$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.28 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +6.2wins | +0.19per pick | 37cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xacd9…3d87backed No | 13c | 7,571$949 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$948.81 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.26per pick | 28cpaid | +74.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe95e…61f2backed No | 7c | 6,323$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.63 | 150 | 41.3%62 W · 88 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 2c | 6,186$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.46 | 333 | 29.7%99 W · 234 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f13…ca3dbacked No | 7c | 5,024$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed No | 6c | 3,789$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.79 | 118 | 33.9%40 W · 78 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed No | 4c | 3,648$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.5 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31b8…f0eebacked No | 1c | 3,127$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 13cpaid | +73.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc1…b8dfbacked No | 13c | 1,617$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.21 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8111…489dbacked No | 5c | 1,243$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.28 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +4.7wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9190…7cd9backed No | 2c | 1,200$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 13cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…e952backed No | 6c | 1,116$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.44 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1dc…7283backed No | 12c | 1,000$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab93…c40bbacked No | 12c | 999.98$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf96c…9e96backed No | 6c | 999.61$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.98 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9df7…3155backed No | 6c | 856.77$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.98 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.29per pick | 28cpaid | +155.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x089a…4bd5backed No | 2c | 849.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…dcd2backed No | 12c | 540.7$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5196…a0cabacked No | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab51…2473backed No | 7c | 456.41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 134 | 22.4%30 W · 104 L | +12.7wins | +0.09per pick | 13cpaid | +175.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a9…48b9backed Yes | 4c | 412.14$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.42 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.44per pick | 23cpaid | +424.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3f71…9c46backed No | 13c | 384.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 7c | 332.26$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 134 | 24.6%33 W · 101 L | -14.8wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5e…64ddbacked No | 6c | 327.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a5…a454backed No | 15c | 295.6$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd39b…9343backed No | 7c | 162.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +5.3wins | +0.33per pick | 48cpaid | +97.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8e…0cc4backed No | 13c | 161$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.93 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +3.4wins | +0.16per pick | 16cpaid | +295.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1ddd…372dbacked No | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c10…1538backed No | 11c | 139.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe08d…7befbacked No | 7c | 134.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4645…7101backed No | 16c | 120.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 22cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0dcd…ac97backed Yes | 76c | 20.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcac1…0c8dbacked Yes | 66c | 16.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87e6…c4a9backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Swell airdrop in 2024?this page
- Aleo airdrop in 2024?No won
- Astaria airdrop in 2024?No won
- Avail airdrop in 2024?No won
- Base airdrop in 2024?No won
- Berachain airdrop in 2024?No won
- Farcaster airdrop in 2024?No won
- Jumper airdrop in 2024?No won
- Linea airdrop in 2024?No won
- MetaMask airdrop in 2024?No won
- PartyDAO airdrop in 2024?No won
- Pudgy Penguins airdrop in 2024?Yes won
- Puffer airdrop in 2024?Yes won
- Pump.fun airdrop in 2024?No won
- Rabby airdrop in 2024?No won
- Rainbow airdrop in 2024?No won
- Scroll airdrop in 2024?Yes won
- Zircuit airdrop in 2024?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.