TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

Rainbow airdrop in 2024?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$45,546
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$40,989

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,546 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa0d4…f46abacked Yes0c6,652$11 inLost-$11.1911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick5cpaid-71.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa44c…d16bbacked Yes1c2,453$31 inLost-$31.0210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes1c2,261$17 inLost-$16.9733329.7%99 W · 234 L+0.2wins0.00per pick30cpaid-42.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6116…f247backed Yes20c1,000$200 inLost-$200862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick50cpaid-5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x18a7…d21abacked Yes2c794.14$12 inLost-$12.36458.9%4 W · 41 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-51.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6faf…6a86backed Yes10c505.01$50 inLost-$501811.1%2 W · 16 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick8cpaid-35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x260d…9679backed Yes6c502.81$30 inLost-$29.754422.7%10 W · 34 L-4.9wins-0.11per pick34cpaid-47.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xde79…06abbacked Yes15c404.41$61 inLost-$60.664721.3%10 W · 37 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf3d4…d988backed Yes13c356.59$46 inLost-$45.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4c10…1538backed Yes6c332$20 inLost-$19.92540%2 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick24cpaid+68.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc6ae…5b2bbacked Yes24c291.67$70 inLost-$7010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7bc…504abacked Yes11c267.15$30 inLost-$303020%6 W · 24 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+287.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x173a…0887backed Yes11c175.53$20 inLost-$20.1230%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c6d…81c2backed Yes9c132.14$12 inLost-$12.37425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe643…554dbacked Yes12c125$15 inLost-$1530%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e5a…d56ebacked Yes13c122.75$16 inLost-$15.965623.2%13 W · 43 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick21cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x15ba…ac13backed Yes15c71.43$11 inLost-$1110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x49fd…0198backed No49c70$34 inWon+$36.02922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-46.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2741…0865backed Yes48c39.82$19 inLost-$19.064316.3%7 W · 36 L-5.3wins-0.12per pick29cpaid-55.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x13f2…2b36backed No60c25$15 inWon+$101100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.