TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

Zircuit airdrop in 2024?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$254,216
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$285,783

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $254,216 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x24c8…23e1backed No2c34,575$707 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$707.14848.3%7 W · 77 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick11cpaid-29.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x574e…3ef1backed No9c21,637$1,882 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,882.082853.6%15 W · 13 L+7.7wins+0.27per pick26cpaid+103.1%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x671b…5c39backed No4c9,187$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.4920%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xacd9…3d87backed No10c7,362$763 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$762.591154.5%6 W · 5 L+2.9wins+0.26per pick28cpaid+74.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked No0c6,853$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.71571.8%1 W · 56 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick0cpaid+116.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe984…6bccbacked No17c5,470$930 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$929.910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcba3…6055backed No5c5,000$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25040%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed No11c4,995$541 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541.147919%15 W · 64 L-6.0wins-0.08per pick27cpaid-63.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No10c4,161$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$396.4333329.7%99 W · 234 L+0.2wins0.00per pick30cpaid-42.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x899d…07c8backed No38c1,872$715 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$714.8470%0 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe077…8ee3backed No12c1,825$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.44318.6%8 W · 35 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick15cpaid-3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5326…6c38backed No9c1,639$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-30.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x49d8…7807backed No6c1,500$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5231…1f75backed Yes79c1,320$1,037 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.17520%1 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.27per pick47cpaid-74.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa6d7…5c54backed No10c1,219$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.66812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick8cpaid+33.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c72…ee4cbacked No21c1,000$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick55cpaid-6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x054c…c4cdbacked No11c843.56$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed No10c803.94$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.6711833.9%40 W · 78 L+0.4wins0.00per pick34cpaid-36.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8111…489dbacked No6c723.26$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.512560%15 W · 10 L+4.7wins+0.19per pick41cpaid+46.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed No3c715.16$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.4516927.8%47 W · 122 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid+8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No11c665.69$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.1713424.6%33 W · 101 L-14.8wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-33.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x5b18…5df2backed No15c664.68$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.8110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8d9…d7f5backed No9c582.47$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.23540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+13.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e8e…0cc4backed No15c549.93$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.992231.8%7 W · 15 L+3.4wins+0.16per pick16cpaid+295.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9c3d…ee1fbacked No6c525$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.7530%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4b0d…59bdbacked No8c521$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.8940%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7343…2166backed No26c511.12$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb99…6844backed No7c400$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+552.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea19…add9backed No13c356.37$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6843…0c78backed Yes77c350.22$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd39b…9343backed No8c329.83$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251681.3%13 W · 3 L+5.3wins+0.33per pick48cpaid+97.1%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x5c96…cb7fbacked No16c317.46$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.6310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f71…9c46backed No14c224.45$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.9620%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb293…cb90backed No8c221.8$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.343013.3%4 W · 26 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick12cpaid+42.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8904…80a3backed No6c202.19$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.85650%28 W · 28 L+5.1wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+5.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x86fe…60e6backed No12c198.19$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.79450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf371…eb4fbacked No9c192.1$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17450%2 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+77.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0cab…b256backed No9c166.67$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151010%1 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick17cpaid-37.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb620…dd7abacked No11c158.72$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.07366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d5e…64ddbacked No10c152.17$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.17933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-29.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ddd…372dbacked No8c149.87$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.991442.9%6 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick36cpaid-22.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2104…a495backed No9c142.03$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3100%0 W · 10 L-2.4wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf7ef…485ebacked No12c135.09$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1b50…87fbbacked No8c130.22$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c04…a597backed No20c125$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-35.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ccf…eac1backed No17c119.4$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07d9…8508backed No14c107.14$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-19.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe903…0202backed Yes78c100$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0049…6034backed No11c100$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.512147.6%10 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-13%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xad67…d6e0backed No10c96.49$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104723.4%11 W · 36 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-25.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6fdd…0b07backed Yes77c89.97$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.36862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick46cpaid+44.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbe6b…f255backed No19c75.21$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.512516%4 W · 21 L-2.1wins-0.09per pick25cpaid-52%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfc05…f600backed No24c57.53$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148421.4%18 W · 66 L+0.3wins0.00per pick21cpaid+37%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa62f…2dffbacked Yes79c55$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.551100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb28b…8391backed Yes80c22$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.4475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.29per pick46cpaid+324.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6196…ad02backed Yes70c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick55cpaid-37.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.