Token Launches · resolved market
Jumper airdrop in 2024?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc1c4d2006d853267573267aab13bb38df25bbbd2a10cd4a874c70f4354b40f59
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $71,672
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $74,502
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $71,672 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 4c | 7,728$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.14 | 62 | 6.5%4 W · 58 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -76.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14ac…4301backed Yes | 18c | 6,686$1,203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,203.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…d4a6backed No | 68c | 2,127$1,449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$678.24 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8687…e87fbacked Yes | 20c | 1,630$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b55…2758backed Yes | 29c | 1,500$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b97…e8f6backed No | 80c | 1,252$1,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.15 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +227.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5346…f23bbacked No | 71c | 800$568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc6…62e0backed Yes | 7c | 700$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +58.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf6…94d5backed No | 71c | 700$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…0518backed Yes | 23c | 643.6$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4c…7108backed Yes | 6c | 499.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1f7…c4e5backed No | 76c | 497.79$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.99 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e14…88b7backed Yes | 22c | 496.18$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0985…352cbacked Yes | 25c | 430.34$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb017…a4f7backed Yes | 24c | 416.6$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -86.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7bc…504abacked Yes | 9c | 333.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +287.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5e…64ddbacked Yes | 54c | 302.34$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.69 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc767…ef0fbacked Yes | 27c | 267.52$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.23 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb62…1d05backed No | 76c | 262.71$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.71 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ac…c2aabacked Yes | 38c | 262.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed No | 75c | 255.19$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.11 | 118 | 33.9%40 W · 78 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23c8…fdf9backed Yes | 25c | 196.77$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ba…a286backed Yes | 23c | 193.53$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.57 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43b3…e3a9backed Yes | 24c | 192.38$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.17 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5af…f63ebacked Yes | 26c | 165.27$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.65 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf6…0d60backed Yes | 24c | 161.96$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.59 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1da4…1fffbacked Yes | 19c | 160.26$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 23c | 158.22$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.96 | 134 | 24.6%33 W · 101 L | -14.8wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8904…80a3backed No | 77c | 150$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde79…06abbacked Yes | 23c | 148.85$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.74 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8111…489dbacked No | 74c | 136$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.36 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +4.7wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdb9e…b4e5backed Yes | 10c | 129.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a26…8acbbacked Yes | 15c | 126.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x96fc…cc0bbacked Yes | 29c | 103.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa074…d030backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eac…f5e3backed Yes | 28c | 99.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab93…c40bbacked No | 76c | 99.98$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1a…7f99backed No | 78c | 99.98$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5a…d56ebacked Yes | 29c | 99.94$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe6b…f255backed Yes | 23c | 93.54$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.65 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -52%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd6…4ec1backed Yes | 43c | 90$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.1 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x137f…968dbacked Yes | 22c | 89.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +73.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60d1…0c8fbacked No | 77c | 86.96$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 155 | 39.4%61 W · 94 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4645…7101backed Yes | 28c | 80.52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.52 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 22cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69a5…4fa7backed No | 78c | 75$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6b…b03abacked Yes | 18c | 71.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4165…138bbacked No | 78c | 70$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +115.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8666…d7c7backed No | 72c | 69.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.48 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ba…082abacked Yes | 30c | 65.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed No | 78c | 59.99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6981…3ba4backed Yes | 21c | 57.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe897…d4f5backed Yes | 21c | 57.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0b…637fbacked Yes | 21c | 57.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2798…c8e2backed Yes | 22c | 54.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed Yes | 42c | 53.59$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.24 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -4.7wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x102b…a9c8backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 22c | 49.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 27cpaid | -75.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c6…e77dbacked Yes | 24c | 49.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccc7…e7b6backed No | 78c | 48.96$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 77cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdb4…c07fbacked Yes | 21c | 48.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe152…7aa1backed Yes | 31c | 45.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c49…6012backed Yes | 24c | 42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91f3…b1dfbacked No | 78c | 39.75$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3df1…38dfbacked No | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x573a…544cbacked Yes | 32c | 33.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91a1…5d25backed No | 77c | 32.91$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee03…6edbbacked No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9313…9140backed No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41a4…1c0abacked No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +55.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41bb…2526backed Yes | 57c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a79…5312backed No | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +200.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…843abacked No | 72c | 23.02$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d40…87b4backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b2e…bc8cbacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8eb6…16bbbacked No | 79c | 18.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf710…c3b9backed No | 75c | 17.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7a…16c6backed No | 71c | 16.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c5…2c6ebacked No | 74c | 15.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Jumper airdrop in 2024?this page
- Aleo airdrop in 2024?No won
- Astaria airdrop in 2024?No won
- Avail airdrop in 2024?No won
- Base airdrop in 2024?No won
- Berachain airdrop in 2024?No won
- Farcaster airdrop in 2024?No won
- Linea airdrop in 2024?No won
- MetaMask airdrop in 2024?No won
- PartyDAO airdrop in 2024?No won
- Pudgy Penguins airdrop in 2024?Yes won
- Puffer airdrop in 2024?Yes won
- Pump.fun airdrop in 2024?No won
- Rabby airdrop in 2024?No won
- Rainbow airdrop in 2024?No won
- Scroll airdrop in 2024?Yes won
- Swell airdrop in 2024?Yes won
- Zircuit airdrop in 2024?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.