TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

PartyDAO airdrop in 2024?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$22,839
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$16,833

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,839 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 10 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa0d4…f46abacked Yes1c4,688$31 inLost-$30.83911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick5cpaid-71.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x18a7…d21abacked Yes1c1,776$15 inLost-$15.17458.9%4 W · 41 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-51.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6faf…6a86backed Yes8c605.47$50 inLost-$501811.1%2 W · 16 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick8cpaid-35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes5c376.67$18 inLost-$17.91456.7%3 W · 42 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick3cpaid+272.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcabf…c2d7backed Yes9c333.33$30 inLost-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7bc…504abacked Yes9c333.33$30 inLost-$303020%6 W · 24 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+287.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes7c262.74$18 inLost-$18.08280%0 W · 28 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb482…fbc7backed Yes13c155.23$20 inLost-$20.182839.3%11 W · 17 L+2.5wins+0.09per pick30cpaid+9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0cab…b256backed Yes12c100$12 inLost-$121010%1 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick17cpaid-37.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae61…4e32backed Yes13c100$13 inLost-$1380%0 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.