TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

Pudgy Penguins airdrop in 2024?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$275,643
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$277,760

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $275,643 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 97 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7e76…ef4ebacked No3c14,542$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$434.813033.3%10 W · 20 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-45.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e8c…6657backed No0c12,729$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.979352.7%49 W · 44 L+9.5wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+29.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5231…1f75backed No65c12,169$7,895 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,895.48520%1 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.27per pick47cpaid-74.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe0a2…a349backed No8c10,896$899 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$899.438052.5%42 W · 38 L+11.1wins+0.14per pick39cpaid+40.5%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x9669…3cf0backed No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9f9…b3debacked No6c9,840$582 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$581.82456.7%3 W · 42 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick3cpaid+272.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcba3…6055backed No8c9,634$798 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$797.540%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed No61c7,628$4,629 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,628.8311833.9%40 W · 78 L+0.4wins0.00per pick34cpaid-36.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb46…d816backed Yes55c6,900$3,790 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,109.531100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+82%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x72d6…1c32backed No1c6,703$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.14520%1 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick6cpaid+2,101.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ac1…9a5cbacked Yes79c6,374$5,015 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,358.351100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+27.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e4f…28b6backed Yes30c5,701$1,738 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,962.44633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.14per pick20cpaid+128.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc0b4…4bacbacked Yes26c5,372$1,370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,002.43366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.38per pick29cpaid+134.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed No19c5,124$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$980.12848.3%7 W · 77 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick11cpaid-29.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff6f…156dbacked No65c3,673$2,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,40010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8111…489dbacked No8c3,620$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.862560%15 W · 10 L+4.7wins+0.19per pick41cpaid+46.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd904…373bbacked Yes77c3,145$2,414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$731.371100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No2c3,139$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.2833329.7%99 W · 234 L+0.2wins0.00per pick30cpaid-42.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1584…53d1backed Yes23c2,531$592 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,939.64250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick20cpaid+113.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed No6c2,459$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1503721.6%8 W · 29 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick19cpaid+128.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8bf…d806backed No7c2,435$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.67160%0 W · 16 L-3.3wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x168b…0450backed No5c2,384$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.071741.2%7 W · 10 L+2.7wins+0.16per pick25cpaid+72.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x8081…6d62backed No7c2,250$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1531040%4 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ff4…5d3dbacked No9c2,085$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.1410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8904…80a3backed No2c2,010$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.15650%28 W · 28 L+5.1wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+5.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf467…0f59backed No1c1,976$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-44.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8dc6…62e0backed Yes23c1,969$444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,524.79450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+58.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x054b…2339backed No33c1,831$612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$612.27540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.13per pick27cpaid+25.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x067f…3014backed Yes30c1,795$538 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,256.31250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+66.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e8f…3886backed Yes66c1,460$960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$500.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+52.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b0b…bf27backed Yes35c1,428$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$928.511100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+185.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1a2…8329backed Yes30c1,401$419 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$982.39425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-16.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x96f2…7effbacked No6c1,400$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88540%2 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.20per pick20cpaid+88.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes42c1,235$523 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$711.567919%15 W · 64 L-6.0wins-0.08per pick27cpaid-63.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1938…0408backed Yes60c1,201$726 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$474.53333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick62cpaid-44.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c6d…d04abacked Yes50c1,181$596 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$584.551100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+98.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c8f…9903backed No27c1,127$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.1710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f2e…ecaabacked No18c1,107$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick38cpaid+103.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfbb8…19f7backed No51c1,097$565 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56520%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1754…c8e6backed No5c1,007$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafa2…dd3ebacked No4c1,000$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13d0…e3dcbacked No10c960.75$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.6630%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad99…c539backed Yes15c798.31$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$679.31250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick14cpaid+235.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb293…cb90backed No4c761.17$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.83013.3%4 W · 26 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick12cpaid+42.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2104…a495backed No10c758.63$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.6100%0 W · 10 L-2.4wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x898c…c0ebbacked Yes11c751.5$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$669.351100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.89per pick11cpaid+814.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb99…6844backed No4c715.66$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.83933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+552.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x18a1…690abacked No66c575.7$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d5f…b380backed No9c571.77$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.248127.2%22 W · 59 L-0.3wins0.00per pick28cpaid+1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x013c…04a1backed No6c512.16$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37c5…bd4ebacked No42c500.05$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2104924.5%12 W · 37 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick30cpaid-31.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe5c3…a32fbacked No26c500$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131560%3 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.21per pick39cpaid+14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x137f…968dbacked No4c486.96$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202937.9%11 W · 18 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+73.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc04e…3ae3backed Yes10c486.62$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$436.62250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick8cpaid+386.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked No2c479.9$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.42571.8%1 W · 56 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick0cpaid+116.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6faf…6a86backed Yes11c466.19$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$416.191811.1%2 W · 16 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick8cpaid-35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No77c459.92$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353.4613424.6%33 W · 101 L-14.8wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-33.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3575…35ffbacked No14c405.15$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x680e…32c8backed No65c402.16$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.2110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c9c…ad87backed Yes52c400$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.2875%6 W · 2 L+2.3wins+0.28per pick47cpaid+61%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc8b5…3041backed No5c400$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.98475%3 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.41per pick34cpaid+89.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xabd7…c531backed No72c332$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.1430%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa6d7…5c54backed Yes9c324.77$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.27812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick8cpaid+33.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xadfb…df43backed No13c319.6$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.5710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4a7…ebe8backed No10c302.99$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.7110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde79…06abbacked Yes7c300$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2794721.3%10 W · 37 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe077…8ee3backed Yes21c285.85$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.614318.6%8 W · 35 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick15cpaid-3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x03b6…2f9dbacked No12c247.03$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.4920%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b0e…188cbacked No5c245.06$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc2a…97aabacked No58c230$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.541020%2 W · 8 L-2.9wins-0.29per pick49cpaid-29.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6dbd…d892backed No7c227.8$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe047…e509backed No6c210.23$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131723.5%4 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed No37c209.83$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.6516927.8%47 W · 122 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid+8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4645…7101backed Yes13c200$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.13per pick22cpaid-30.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1e5a…d56ebacked Yes16c200$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1685623.2%13 W · 43 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick21cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ed5…57a4backed Yes68c172.07$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.071100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d97…da06backed No66c157.04$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.86955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+72.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1be6…512dbacked Yes69c145.83$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.832100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0357…c4e9backed Yes71c141.52$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.091100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc603…d2a8backed Yes16c128.44$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.44366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+167%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e2a…e3b5backed Yes54c117.41$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.411100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+86.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x11e5…a49cbacked No13c100.91$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58dd…6ff5backed Yes11c100$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89862.5%5 W · 3 L+2.4wins+0.30per pick33cpaid+166.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x415c…3c94backed Yes13c95$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.793016.7%5 W · 25 L-4.7wins-0.16per pick32cpaid-41.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xbe6b…f255backed No22c74.65$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.372516%4 W · 21 L-2.1wins-0.09per pick25cpaid-52%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6569…48d9backed Yes67c57.41$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+50.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6236…6881backed No31c53.52$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.632850%14 W · 14 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-11%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf259…7592backed Yes37c46.26$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.941050%5 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+36.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x50b2…c94abacked No73c40$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.041861.1%11 W · 7 L+1.9wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+5.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe206…b9f3backed No70c31.53$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222227.3%6 W · 16 L-3.8wins-0.17per pick45cpaid-34.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x24ee…5f64backed No48c31.14$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-16.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a00…acfbbacked No36c30.3$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-14.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9bab…090dbacked No50c30.05$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xedd3…e9c6backed No70c28.75$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfb4e…6f6bbacked Yes38c28.57$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.571100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+159.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ed5…6f0cbacked Yes74c20.34$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.34250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-32.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa269…6368backed No53c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.58333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick64cpaid-53.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.