TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

Pump.fun airdrop in 2024?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$148,881
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$138,059

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $148,881 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 161 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x07d4…8991backed Yes5c15,054$802 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801.71626.5%4 W · 58 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-76.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x36c6…dba8backed Yes2c13,357$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.91250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick10cpaid+168.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1584…53d1backed Yes16c11,393$1,844 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,843.93250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick20cpaid+113.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x637e…3c94backed No50c9,198$4,599 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,5991100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37d3…6b35backed Yes50c9,198$4,599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,59910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb49e…118fbacked Yes18c5,931$1,075 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,075.1240%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x382c…a0d7backed Yes21c4,370$918 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$918.12714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.19per pick33cpaid-79.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes10c3,849$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.8433329.7%99 W · 234 L+0.2wins0.00per pick30cpaid-42.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Yes3c2,479$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.4211833.9%40 W · 78 L+0.4wins0.00per pick34cpaid-36.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes4c2,333$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.37456.7%3 W · 42 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick3cpaid+272.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xae61…4e32backed Yes2c2,323$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.5480%0 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1537…b8f1backed Yes2c2,211$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.8210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x574e…3ef1backed No51c1,856$954 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$901.922853.6%15 W · 13 L+7.7wins+0.27per pick26cpaid+103.1%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0xd06f…d4a6backed No66c1,629$1,079 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$550.682450%12 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-27.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7187…76b4backed Yes4c1,169$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.2910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2104…a495backed Yes5c982.02$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.12100%0 W · 10 L-2.4wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x506b…319abacked Yes9c980.83$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3fde…803bbacked Yes36c852.99$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e34…344ebacked Yes2c762.88$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick27cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x59cf…272fbacked Yes53c748.01$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$396.38250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-10.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4bd…dcd2backed No80c732.34$583 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.36742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-42.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac07…fb5dbacked Yes6c700$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18a7…d21abacked Yes7c670.14$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.79458.9%4 W · 41 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-51.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe95e…61f2backed Yes53c628.38$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.2815041.3%62 W · 88 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+11.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x98b4…5d76backed Yes17c626.22$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes29c583.53$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.2213424.6%33 W · 101 L-14.8wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-33.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4020…11d1backed No71c571.76$407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.76425%1 W · 3 L-1.8wins-0.45per pick70cpaid-64.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x167a…e952backed Yes16c527$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.674017.5%7 W · 33 L+0.1wins0.00per pick17cpaid-57.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0a2…a349backed No80c460.66$367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.988052.5%42 W · 38 L+11.1wins+0.14per pick39cpaid+40.5%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x61ef…2fd0backed Yes49c449.99$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.540%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa173…3315backed Yes47c425$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.755541.8%23 W · 32 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-14.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe25…0fe1backed Yes8c391.17$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x588f…0cb6backed Yes24c355$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.2333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-47.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4cf7…28bbbacked Yes14c346.09$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5050%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0cab…b256backed Yes20c338.4$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$691010%1 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick17cpaid-37.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcfa5…ec41backed Yes3c330.43$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6ea…3ea8backed Yes24c315.29$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.521136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick28cpaid-21.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6faf…6a86backed Yes16c311.32$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501811.1%2 W · 16 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick8cpaid-35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3fd9…51ffbacked Yes4c309.07$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36d7…98fbbacked Yes25c308.86$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.5910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b1f…78eabacked Yes31c307.92$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.95520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-59%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b38…9937backed Yes19c302.98$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.5760%0 W · 6 L-2.2wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7e4b…6308backed No69c289.2$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.651100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6222…825fbacked No30c266.45$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.52633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x73b8…f6b5backed Yes15c260$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-68.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8bb4…8167backed No5c255.27$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.51376.9%10 W · 3 L+8.1wins+0.63per pick14cpaid+774.6%equal weight74+0.21 edge/pick
0x8975…e6dbbacked Yes22c254.99$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.1520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-57.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x72bd…d02fbacked No58c254$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.181100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+71.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb14…5358backed No54c250$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1151136.4%4 W · 7 L-2.5wins-0.23per pick59cpaid-39.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa772…b445backed Yes60c249.5$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.015945.8%27 W · 32 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+4.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xee9f…84b5backed Yes6c225.11$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x880d…55cebacked No71c205.13$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.512100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8111…489dbacked No49c205$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.552560%15 W · 10 L+4.7wins+0.19per pick41cpaid+46.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xea01…c767backed Yes49c204.76$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.47616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.26per pick43cpaid-74.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5c37…3174backed Yes22c198.67$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.59366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick40cpaid+63.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfde3…c59bbacked Yes6c189.77$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8330%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x410e…39efbacked Yes21c187.25$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.321330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x494e…7340backed No69c175.01$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.681100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfed9…7a56backed No68c171.29$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+46.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa571…5e05backed Yes30c165.85$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.7630%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b09…a97dbacked No75c165.3$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.321100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdcd0…4d91backed No70c163.11$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.931100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1348…da3dbacked No74c162.69$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+36%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x926e…105bbacked No66c157.16$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.431100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8362…5198backed No77c155.61$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x856d…30d8backed No77c154.56$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.371100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec65…9c25backed No78c152.92$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6d7…5c54backed Yes14c152.34$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.17812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick8cpaid+33.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x59fe…bc50backed No66c152$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.681100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd16…a2cdbacked No77c151$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.74366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick74cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1dc…5460backed Yes22c150$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338338.6%32 W · 51 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-6.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4294…ee29backed Yes35c150$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.5944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.18per pick63cpaid-39.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd39b…9343backed No67c150$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.51681.3%13 W · 3 L+5.3wins+0.33per pick48cpaid+97.1%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x15fc…e8d2backed No75c148.64$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x731b…90dfbacked Yes8c148$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8420%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb7a5…341bbacked No69c146.97$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d0e…9b78backed No80c144.43$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.331100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1dc3…8eabbacked No75c141.67$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.421100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7d9…e0dabacked No77c141.6$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.391100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d79…1f0bbacked No77c141.56$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.821100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8904…80a3backed No46c141.52$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.155650%28 W · 28 L+5.1wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+5.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7f32…e574backed Yes29c140$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.2250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+31.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ff4…2ea8backed Yes17c127$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.11250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-21.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe85e…775fbacked Yes8c126.25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x771d…440ebacked No80c124$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.8366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick75cpaid-15.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes23c123.53$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.9616927.8%47 W · 122 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid+8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc9a0…a799backed Yes36c120$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.220%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf2c5…1829backed Yes12c111$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6d3a…1ab8backed No66c108.85$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.471100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+50.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ac0…ec9abacked Yes22c108.4$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.76425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-64.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d5f…b380backed Yes36c107.79$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.88127.2%22 W · 59 L-0.3wins0.00per pick28cpaid+1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9a1…35fabacked Yes43c106.52$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.121233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-31.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b85…3566backed No70c102.13$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7daa…b3bebacked Yes20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2617…db91backed Yes17c100$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f13…ce0ebacked No58c100$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick61cpaid-13.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x122c…821fbacked Yes40c100$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-24.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb202…1e15backed No69c100$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick51cpaid-6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa25f…8966backed Yes42c99.5$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd5a…4441backed Yes35c98.63$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3520%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.