Music · resolved market
Will Kanye launch a coin in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x73dcdbffa949eca78249c85a942db89efcbd8ef75ae864ab2f8578dca14a78e0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,482
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,126
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,482 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked No | 0c | 12,191$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.09 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 4,179$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.55 | 462 | 9.7%45 W · 417 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdde1…ea9bbacked Yes | 75c | 2,866$2,163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$703.39 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed No | 24c | 2,500$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4b…4554backed No | 22c | 2,264$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.08 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 23cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d74…ee45backed No | 27c | 2,262$605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$604.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab0f…b72fbacked Yes | 60c | 1,726$1,034 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$692.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45cc…6400backed No | 64c | 1,520$969 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$969.03 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc683…4b1fbacked No | 3c | 1,442$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed No | 44c | 1,033$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.03 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c86…7dcebacked Yes | 38c | 1,020$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$631.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +162.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x398d…c7c3backed Yes | 41c | 762.51$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.02 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e4…2daebacked No | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11f3…3874backed No | 60c | 497.23$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x623f…1852backed No | 18c | 408.25$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.78 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7525…5d8ebacked Yes | 55c | 398.9$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 18c | 345.8$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.8 | 72 | 22.2%16 W · 56 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3468…b56fbacked Yes | 77c | 344.97$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc4…768fbacked Yes | 41c | 290$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +146%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x420e…e3c9backed No | 78c | 264.88$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.3 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc360…dbb2backed No | 48c | 206.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa270…c45fbacked No | 57c | 200$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48c6…d483backed Yes | 20c | 184.44$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +400%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Yes | 30c | 167$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.9 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.25per pick | 46cpaid | +75%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x239a…a0c6backed No | 79c | 165$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc17…289abacked Yes | 31c | 160$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 14c | 142$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17ed…c087backed Yes | 13c | 124.86$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.63 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +281.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfa6f…7e67backed Yes | 66c | 123$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.42 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d5…5637backed No | 79c | 106.01$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa518…41e3backed No | 74c | 101$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.74 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb28a…6d4abacked Yes | 26c | 101$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.74 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf555…b2d5backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 6cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 21c | 93.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 64 | 35.9%23 W · 41 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe328…9f4abacked Yes | 19c | 73.36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +426.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7caf…19d2backed Yes | 21c | 70.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.88 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +77.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf385…4864backed Yes | 27c | 66.1$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.49 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…f4e6backed No | 63c | 64.04$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.27 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0460…7137backed Yes | 33c | 60.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +200.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 98 | 44.9%44 W · 54 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9afd…3028backed Yes | 56c | 59.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.68 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde79…06abbacked Yes | 20c | 56.62$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +400%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed No | 50c | 55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf4…7021backed No | 64c | 51.19$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.76 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 41c | 42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.78 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x573d…6527backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…1338backed Yes | 66c | 37.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4970…ad8bbacked No | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1017…0c39backed No | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…5e29backed No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44cf…7aa0backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x940b…8d3dbacked No | 77c | 19.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb9d…e31bbacked Yes | 68c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.