Token Launches · resolved market
WLFI market cap (FDV) <$10B one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0f599a16869357192741cd85b0317ccf87e4d21cdd78363bb65c76cd46e50f5f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $133,739
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $112,794
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $133,739 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe89c…6696backed Yes | 4c | 20,828$904 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$904.3 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd968…d5ecbacked Yes | 2c | 10,298$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 6,091$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.16 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x656f…b5b4backed Yes | 4c | 5,860$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bc…2907backed Yes | 5c | 5,765$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0397…000dbacked Yes | 7c | 5,306$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.11 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 2c | 5,200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.4 | 171 | 2.9%5 W · 166 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5a…d56ebacked Yes | 8c | 4,649$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.72 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x013d…3e88backed Yes | 2c | 4,500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf4…bbf7backed Yes | 2c | 3,322$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc012…baa0backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c65…3e45backed Yes | 10c | 2,689$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.53 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed Yes | 9c | 2,547$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.24 | 238 | 41.2%98 W · 140 L | +25.1wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 2,268$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.19 | 62 | 27.4%17 W · 45 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea5…766fbacked Yes | 8c | 2,216$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 3c | 2,177$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.32 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5021…9906backed Yes | 6c | 2,100$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.46 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a18…a6abbacked Yes | 4c | 2,100$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47ab…95dfbacked Yes | 13c | 1,873$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.71 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 36cpaid | -75%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd43f…3c52backed Yes | 1c | 1,290$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ae…f72fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,131$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1111…ca23backed Yes | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +6.2wins | +0.19per pick | 37cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8cdc…65a8backed Yes | 11c | 983.92$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 1c | 967.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 333 | 29.7%99 W · 234 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 3c | 953.16$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 51 | 0%0 W · 51 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa84f…bc44backed Yes | 11c | 780.74$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.82 | 60 | 31.7%19 W · 41 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee3…53b1backed Yes | 20c | 726.29$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcec…e023backed Yes | 4c | 686.49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x289d…6576backed Yes | 5c | 432.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95c7…63e6backed Yes | 6c | 390.67$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd063…5ccdbacked Yes | 13c | 350$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.9 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf442…93abbacked Yes | 33c | 301.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe876…9586backed No | 80c | 300$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 72cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 16c | 290.94$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.73 | 134 | 24.6%33 W · 101 L | -14.8wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0708…6c4fbacked Yes | 9c | 288.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9b…afddbacked Yes | 15c | 262.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09b6…4349backed Yes | 18c | 224.79$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.46 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde79…06abbacked Yes | 10c | 190$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdee6…c5c5backed Yes | 19c | 186$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.04 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac99…1380backed Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9567…e505backed No | 73c | 150$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 13c | 114.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 169 | 27.8%47 W · 122 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86e4…5d8abacked Yes | 10c | 112.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3eca…0d68backed Yes | 29c | 101.79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ee…9597backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 162 | 47.5%77 W · 85 L | +13.9wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x825e…904fbacked No | 75c | 90$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5805…6c4cbacked No | 78c | 65$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…843abacked No | 78c | 46.54$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- WLFI market cap (FDV) <$10B one day after launch?this page
- WLFI market cap (FDV) $10-12B one day after launch?No won
- WLFI market cap (FDV) $12-14B one day after launch?No won
- WLFI market cap (FDV) $14-16B one day after launch?No won
- WLFI market cap (FDV) >$16B one day after launch?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.