Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 April 6-12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x69cc1b7581524644f1bc347cab7c2795f18cdd049e535f897a6ec38d408d3556
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $277,955
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $240,504
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $277,955 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x90bb…531fbacked Yes | 0c | 13,965$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 71 | 0%0 W · 71 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f55…e9a4backed Yes | 11c | 12,607$1,433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,433.02 | 142 | 13.4%19 W · 123 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b76…c036backed Yes | 0c | 12,431$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes | 1c | 12,081$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.96 | 475 | 4.6%22 W · 453 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +144.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c0…fad2backed Yes | 0c | 11,150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 31 | 0%0 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ed…bb85backed Yes | 0c | 11,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed Yes | 18c | 9,416$1,694 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,694.44 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca5…8727backed Yes | 5c | 6,500$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 8cpaid | +280.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0140…9510backed Yes | 17c | 5,189$880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$880.43 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd626…cd9cbacked Yes | 2c | 4,581$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa3…df33backed Yes | 2c | 3,627$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd769…f90cbacked Yes | 12c | 3,150$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 195 | 35.4%69 W · 126 L | -13.0wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x70f3…2822backed Yes | 5c | 2,770$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.82 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4af7…2381backed Yes | 16c | 2,753$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.5 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 27cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19fc…b4e3backed Yes | 4c | 2,466$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.27 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -80.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 2,466$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.57 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb49…340bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,301$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.49 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 1c | 1,400$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 416 | 3.1%13 W · 403 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 2c | 1,298$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.13 | 258 | 1.2%3 W · 255 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -84%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21c6…927bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,147$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 167 | 2.4%4 W · 163 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14e2…282fbacked Yes | 13c | 1,065$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.26 | 40 | 7.5%3 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde79…06abbacked Yes | 3c | 1,000$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x449e…2bf3backed Yes | 5c | 991.45$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f69…acb6backed Yes | 2c | 947.24$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 179 | 2.2%4 W · 175 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 5c | 924.04$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.91 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae9f…763cbacked Yes | 2c | 898.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3034…4af5backed Yes | 4c | 834.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5f…634dbacked No | 71c | 768$544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.4 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c48…6e66backed Yes | 14c | 566.34$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.43 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0688…7a12backed No | 68c | 440$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.8 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4505…1cf0backed Yes | 4c | 349.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 23cpaid | +161.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x335c…6e62backed Yes | 34c | 331.61$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.75 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7639…4d07backed Yes | 3c | 325.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a07…7a4dbacked Yes | 8c | 320.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.68 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x983e…c5cebacked No | 78c | 285.68$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.85 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27a7…cd66backed No | 76c | 255.19$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.21 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2139…9df0backed Yes | 8c | 216.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6179…6f80backed Yes | 17c | 176.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.94 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa4…6ba3backed Yes | 17c | 149.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.36 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0f…e5f4backed Yes | 18c | 141.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +12%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc31e…a0dcbacked Yes | 8c | 134.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa956…666fbacked No | 73c | 131.74$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.64 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 68cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b16…4ae8backed Yes | 12c | 124.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -14%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6869…1528backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa23d…ef9bbacked No | 75c | 96.4$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.1 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.18per pick | 74cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb048…de01backed Yes | 18c | 92.74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…5ae4backed Yes | 31c | 90.06$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.92 | 280 | 21.1%59 W · 221 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30a5…2ee0backed Yes | 30c | 62.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.25per pick | 29cpaid | +289.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x42fa…a9abbacked Yes | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb693…6ebcbacked Yes | 31c | 51.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -5.3wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4d75…b263backed No | 80c | 48.74$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04fa…f437backed Yes | 27c | 45.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 45cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe61…e9c2backed No | 77c | 23.35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.37 | 24 | 79.2%19 W · 5 L | +3.3wins | +0.14per pick | 65cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb382…3c75backed No | 79c | 18.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510c…3239backed No | 80c | 18.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 April 6-12?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 April 6-12?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 April 6-12?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 April 6-12?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 April 6-12?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 April 6-12?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 April 6-12?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 April 6-12?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 April 6-12?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 April 6-12?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 April 6-12?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 April 6-12?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 April 6-12?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 April 6-12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.