Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 April 6-12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8d8fe143ab21949467d00bce6226594955fe16f370db281273dbd16e2b08445d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $207,550
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $209,736
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $207,550 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5360…1f6fbacked Yes | 8c | 27,075$2,165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,165.44 | 146 | 6.2%9 W · 137 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 3cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda6b…a403backed Yes | 3c | 26,165$759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$758.94 | 62 | 0%0 W · 62 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14e2…282fbacked Yes | 11c | 8,965$946 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$946.14 | 40 | 7.5%3 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 2,869$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.81 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb49…340bbacked Yes | 4c | 1,447$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.16 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fc…6b2abacked Yes | 4c | 1,403$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.07 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7f…2f05backed Yes | 3c | 1,351$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.74 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 8cpaid | +112.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 11c | 1,295$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.67 | 89 | 19.1%17 W · 72 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 3c | 1,250$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.79 | 258 | 1.2%3 W · 255 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -84%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81a5…5e5ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,215$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.52 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -82.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x049b…5a12backed Yes | 2c | 988.75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.48 | 38 | 7.9%3 W · 35 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 3cpaid | +403.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe190…0a5dbacked Yes | 3c | 955.59$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.87 | 103 | 1.9%2 W · 101 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdde9…4bd5backed Yes | 6c | 794.75$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.28 | 128 | 8.6%11 W · 117 L | -9.0wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x19fc…b4e3backed Yes | 3c | 774.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -80.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c27…494bbacked Yes | 3c | 729.9$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.51 | 28 | 3.6%1 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 8cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 3c | 698.67$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf720…1df4backed Yes | 13c | 683.44$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.44 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21c6…927bbacked Yes | 2c | 632.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 167 | 2.4%4 W · 163 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f69…acb6backed Yes | 2c | 621.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 179 | 2.2%4 W · 175 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 2c | 595.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 197 | 0%0 W · 197 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde79…06abbacked Yes | 3c | 516.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae9f…763cbacked Yes | 4c | 465.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed Yes | 3c | 447.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 59 | 0%0 W · 59 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa4…6ba3backed Yes | 13c | 437.42$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.55 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1191…9b08backed Yes | 4c | 430.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…38a2backed Yes | 3c | 354.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96c4…e168backed Yes | 9c | 260.47$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecc…36ddbacked Yes | 9c | 194.84$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…8003backed Yes | 9c | 147.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 85 | 21.2%18 W · 67 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 April 6-12?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 April 6-12?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 April 6-12?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 April 6-12?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 April 6-12?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 April 6-12?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 April 6-12?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 April 6-12?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 April 6-12?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 April 6-12?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 April 6-12?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 April 6-12?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 April 6-12?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 April 6-12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.