TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 April 6-12?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$421,217
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$437,907

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $421,217 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 275 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes45c15,211$6,888 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,888.0537745.9%173 W · 204 L+15.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-0.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x691b…d550backed No44c11,244$4,967 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,276.57785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.26per pick60cpaid+57.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbc1f…7631backed No58c11,133$6,491 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,641.383447.1%16 W · 18 L-2.9wins-0.09per pick56cpaid-27.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5360…1f6fbacked Yes9c9,586$887 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$886.541466.2%9 W · 137 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick3cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf34…dc6ebacked Yes10c8,917$856 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$856.12339.1%3 W · 30 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick7cpaid+122.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc12a…dc73backed No65c6,774$4,410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,364.34050%20 W · 20 L-3.0wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-18.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1c20…cb2cbacked No74c6,381$4,707 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,674.12560%3 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2708…bd47backed Yes5c5,575$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.45450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-31.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc50…4c82backed Yes47c5,245$2,460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,459.7858126.9%156 W · 425 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-39.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes31c5,234$1,628 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,627.887828.4%249 W · 629 L+2.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0970…5ae4backed No56c4,208$2,342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,865.6328021.1%59 W · 221 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-27.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e1d…d0fabacked Yes45c4,203$1,879 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,878.543946.2%18 W · 21 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-35.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1a60…cc65backed Yes2c3,728$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.62425%1 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick9cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a1a…e54ebacked Yes4c3,183$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.2820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb37b…5186backed Yes46c2,956$1,347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,346.514032.5%13 W · 27 L-4.2wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-47.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa898…71c1backed Yes32c2,869$917 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$916.88333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xab87…bddebacked No40c2,809$1,129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,680.131100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+148.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf632…02aabacked Yes2c2,698$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.627321.9%16 W · 57 L+4.8wins+0.07per pick15cpaid+51.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc5ac…aa06backed Yes50c2,606$1,302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,302.1570%0 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdb49…340bbacked Yes63c2,513$1,582 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,581.890%0 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4af7…2381backed Yes53c2,379$1,267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,267.421010%1 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.17per pick27cpaid-80.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2464…44a1backed No52c2,356$1,230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,125.691968.4%13 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick59cpaid+30.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes34c2,095$717 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$717.393013.3%4 W · 26 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick12cpaid+44.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b16…4ae8backed Yes19c2,063$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391.724533.3%15 W · 30 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-14%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a40…4093backed No57c2,007$1,152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$854.941118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick27cpaid-72.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x88b4…cf0bbacked No51c1,908$973 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$935.21250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc249…8a61backed Yes52c1,819$952 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$952.091776.5%13 W · 4 L+2.8wins+0.16per pick60cpaid+28.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1f32…1532backed No54c1,786$958 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$828.042433.3%8 W · 16 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ee2…46e1backed Yes25c1,757$439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$439.1140643.3%176 W · 230 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-12.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa03…8916backed No50c1,503$752 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$751.68728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-47.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97bc…30cdbacked Yes49c1,500$735 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$734.86723.9%16 W · 51 L+4.1wins+0.06per pick18cpaid+111.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x846f…750ebacked No51c1,448$734 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$714.6313038.5%50 W · 80 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick40cpaid+2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x89e1…9528backed Yes54c1,412$758 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$757.53714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.5wins-0.35per pick50cpaid-79.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xfb12…d1b3backed No57c1,273$732 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$541.41366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick44cpaid+10%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes7c1,200$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.662126.6%14 W · 198 L+0.7wins0.00per pick6cpaid-37.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d5f…634dbacked No76c1,200$910 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2902458.3%14 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick65cpaid-14.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xeaeb…a557backed No59c1,169$689 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$479.75250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-15.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x007f…58dabacked No55c1,135$619 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$516.31850%4 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+21.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed36…e096backed Yes50c1,113$557 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$556.855226.9%14 W · 38 L-7.4wins-0.14per pick41cpaid-40.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xda6b…a403backed Yes3c1,033$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.89620%0 W · 62 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d97…d127backed Yes25c1,000$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2503215.6%5 W · 27 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick20cpaid-48.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x771a…3659backed No76c1,000$760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240560%3 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick69cpaid-22.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1464…8748backed Yes26c937.44$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.137112.7%9 W · 62 L-6.4wins-0.09per pick22cpaid-50.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x6ca2…134fbacked No47c887.49$421 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$466.854146.3%19 W · 22 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick41cpaid-0.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6306…852abacked Yes13c865.97$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.582222.7%5 W · 17 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick31cpaid-46.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x726f…d8e7backed Yes29c857.82$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.9411330.1%34 W · 79 L-6.9wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-41.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc33b…2372backed Yes46c801.95$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$368.91513.3%2 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick18cpaid-70.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa951…8a2fbacked No29c759.08$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$541.481338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-28.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3085…7568backed Yes4c749.26$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.292581.2%3 W · 255 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-84%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0688…7a12backed No57c735.66$422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313.964650%23 W · 23 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c34…5569backed Yes9c716.81$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebc0…5aafbacked No61c660.69$403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.67728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick23cpaid-52%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No54c651.5$352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.2711533%38 W · 77 L-7.0wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-34.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf6dc…246ebacked No67c633$424 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.5313770.1%96 W · 41 L+9.4wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xaea3…fe61backed Yes50c599.03$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.523666.7%24 W · 12 L+4.0wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+4.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2f69…acb6backed Yes4c566.88$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.031792.2%4 W · 175 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-71.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb9f…bef0backed No60c565.44$339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.182245.5%10 W · 12 L-3.7wins-0.17per pick62cpaid-35.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x936e…473fbacked Yes61c559.26$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.15633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-38.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No29c535.64$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$379.531523.8%75 W · 240 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c69…f7b6backed Yes44c533.9$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f82…463bbacked Yes17c533.04$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.98825%2 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-55.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c06…b98abacked Yes34c532.33$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.99540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-40.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbdf6…ceb2backed Yes55c510.11$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.5630%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x21c6…927bbacked Yes6c500.92$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.681672.4%4 W · 163 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-68.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd696…0618backed No49c492.66$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.25250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0fb2…25b9backed No57c469.33$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.93837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick43cpaid+23.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e0b…4e72backed No40c456.8$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.082100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+159%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa140…5531backed No76c400$304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96450%2 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+29%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6179…6f80backed Yes33c396.87$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.934341.9%18 W · 25 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc2db…6865backed No60c395.07$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.035757.9%33 W · 24 L+4.6wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+18.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7fe7…98e3backed Yes49c382.51$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.49955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.20per pick36cpaid+131.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0063…7c04backed Yes50c380.99$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ad8…6dbfbacked Yes24c370$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.0720%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdca7…1e2bbacked Yes11c305.38$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.5910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd050…be7abacked Yes43c302.8$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.659940.4%40 W · 59 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-25.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x61b9…20a3backed Yes48c287.26$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.6760%0 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa772…05efbacked No35c279.69$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.83158.1%18 W · 13 L+3.3wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+34%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x247f…6749backed No38c277.73$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.71580%4 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.35per pick45cpaid+60.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe190…0a5dbacked Yes17c276.91$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.071031.9%2 W · 101 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick3cpaid-47.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e9a…e7e0backed No77c275.51$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.724100%4 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+53%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xac63…1d1abacked No38c270.24$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.67333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-13%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb04f…2f22backed Yes14c265.44$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0258…13bfbacked No55c240.47$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.418162.4%113 W · 68 L+5.5wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa748…3f28backed Yes16c237.28$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.22333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-44.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf114…8003backed Yes19c232.02$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.438521.2%18 W · 67 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-22.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd187…c76cbacked Yes39c230.08$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.83333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6dc8…251abacked Yes63c225.41$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.01540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xccb3…2eadbacked No57c221.2$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.71520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick40cpaid-64.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x56be…17d3backed Yes42c218.21$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.65650%3 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+22.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1137…4ed5backed Yes43c215.97$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.7921651.4%111 W · 105 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-15.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf4c…33b5backed Yes45c209.75$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.624341.9%18 W · 25 L-0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-27%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd8d5…8935backed Yes55c200$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-46.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc18e…b090backed No79c199.1$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.133871.1%27 W · 11 L+5.8wins+0.15per pick56cpaid+15.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x807d…76dcbacked No60c197.86$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.464334.9%15 W · 28 L-2.9wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-30.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x187f…a85bbacked Yes39c197.62$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.073339.4%13 W · 20 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-31.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba13…57c4backed No59c196.9$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.891100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x53e9…d896backed No69c191.78$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.5333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick63cpaid-51.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2387…ffb4backed No63c190.63$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.96333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-46.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x37dc…85ccbacked No75c187.07$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.771741.2%7 W · 10 L-2.3wins-0.14per pick55cpaid-32.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6693…9454backed Yes15c181.65$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.