Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 April 6-12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x377e4fc7b36206abe32ed916bb40f08bf1a6be79c0f1316b9e52f1b29e491af0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $405,223
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $437,086
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $405,223 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaf34…dc6ebacked Yes | 3c | 24,527$652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$652.42 | 33 | 9.1%3 W · 30 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +122.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5360…1f6fbacked Yes | 8c | 17,744$1,427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,426.9 | 146 | 6.2%9 W · 137 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 3cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90bb…531fbacked Yes | 0c | 11,612$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 71 | 0%0 W · 71 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5084…fb85backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e1d…d0fabacked Yes | 8c | 8,733$682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$682.43 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x104a…5b05backed Yes | 25c | 7,136$1,784 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,784 | 80 | 17.5%14 W · 66 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed No | 80c | 5,573$4,452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,120.83 | 377 | 45.9%173 W · 204 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 12c | 5,373$653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$652.53 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6079…b251backed Yes | 8c | 5,179$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 11c | 4,644$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.56 | 33 | 0%0 W · 33 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14e2…282fbacked Yes | 18c | 3,916$698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$698.48 | 40 | 7.5%3 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a6…8651backed Yes | 13c | 3,674$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda6b…a403backed Yes | 6c | 3,644$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.67 | 62 | 0%0 W · 62 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c35…feebbacked Yes | 8c | 2,603$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.2 | 27 | 0%0 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 8c | 2,578$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.43 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb49…340bbacked Yes | 14c | 2,341$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.22 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a9b…e9f6backed Yes | 15c | 2,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea30…4144backed Yes | 11c | 1,933$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.2 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a1a…e54ebacked Yes | 15c | 1,443$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f69…acb6backed Yes | 6c | 1,407$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.15 | 179 | 2.2%4 W · 175 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xced4…5055backed Yes | 10c | 1,395$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.12 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21c6…927bbacked Yes | 6c | 1,331$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.39 | 167 | 2.4%4 W · 163 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 6c | 1,286$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.32 | 258 | 1.2%3 W · 255 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -84%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x726f…d8e7backed Yes | 11c | 1,160$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.82 | 113 | 30.1%34 W · 79 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b59…58e6backed Yes | 8c | 1,084$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.75 | 100 | 1%1 W · 99 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -96.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72d7…1b97backed Yes | 8c | 1,022$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.82 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf54c…e6ccbacked Yes | 8c | 999.99$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac6a…57d1backed Yes | 25c | 988.68$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.17 | 32 | 6.3%2 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c21…adafbacked Yes | 11c | 946.45$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x991f…d3c2backed Yes | 12c | 837.15$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.94 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -4.3wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa898…71c1backed Yes | 9c | 795.17$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.57 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17b8…2f69backed Yes | 34c | 776.49$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b16…4ae8backed Yes | 9c | 748.28$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.58 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -14%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe190…0a5dbacked Yes | 7c | 703.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.22 | 103 | 1.9%2 W · 101 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb04f…2f22backed Yes | 10c | 691.11$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 2c | 649.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 416 | 3.1%13 W · 403 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 12c | 649.05$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.94 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f82…463bbacked Yes | 31c | 581.33$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.12 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd050…be7abacked Yes | 16c | 576.31$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.13 | 99 | 40.4%40 W · 59 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6345…6718backed Yes | 8c | 538.63$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13c5…fcc7backed Yes | 15c | 497.31$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa2…70f4backed Yes | 9c | 458.42$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d81…2b8fbacked Yes | 24c | 445.28$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf4c…33b5backed Yes | 14c | 424.99$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.69 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -27%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7f…2f05backed Yes | 8c | 424.09$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.17 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 8cpaid | +112.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ac…25bbbacked Yes | 13c | 399.95$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…9fdabacked Yes | 11c | 396.29$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.59 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 9cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x96c4…e168backed Yes | 20c | 353.92$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.78 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd984…18dfbacked Yes | 16c | 267.42$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.98 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -84.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5636…adf8backed Yes | 7c | 233.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b2…962dbacked Yes | 8c | 200.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2810…1131backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +147.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b01…5da3backed Yes | 11c | 197.39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…b2c2backed Yes | 11c | 192.91$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.81 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +3.4wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +88.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf9…1cc3backed Yes | 10c | 191.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19fc…b4e3backed Yes | 6c | 175.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -80.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a84…7101backed Yes | 7c | 175.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +5.7wins | +0.16per pick | 12cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcb95…542abacked Yes | 15c | 175.52$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.33 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacb7…0d19backed Yes | 11c | 158.52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6293…3c27backed Yes | 8c | 156.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e8…2e43backed Yes | 12c | 124.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99cb…b02cbacked Yes | 14c | 107.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54b4…748abacked Yes | 12c | 104.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x822f…7b43backed Yes | 10c | 101.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a43…a472backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6919…d27bbacked Yes | 13c | 99.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf57d…bf12backed Yes | 16c | 96.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa838…15cbbacked Yes | 14c | 93.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45ec…12eebacked Yes | 19c | 92.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93d7…7423backed Yes | 15c | 75.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 348 | 48.6%169 W · 179 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x170c…0a81backed Yes | 21c | 62.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa813…04fbbacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 99 | 64.6%64 W · 35 L | +17.0wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x066b…b491backed No | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf03…8229backed No | 80c | 30.35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa956…666fbacked No | 73c | 26.33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.11 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 68cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 April 6-12?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 April 6-12?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 April 6-12?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 April 6-12?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 April 6-12?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 April 6-12?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 April 6-12?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 April 6-12?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 April 6-12?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 April 6-12?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 April 6-12?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 April 6-12?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 April 6-12?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 April 6-12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.