TailMyPicks
Market

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 April 6-12?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$192,548
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$206,888

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $192,548 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xda6b…a403backed Yes1c40,499$543 inLost-$542.76620%0 W · 62 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x74e2…ea6dbacked Yes4c8,863$316 inLost-$315.8140%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5360…1f6fbacked Yes1c6,705$91 inLost-$91.491466.2%9 W · 137 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick3cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes2c3,642$61 inLost-$61.076785.9%40 W · 638 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe9a5…3396backed Yes1c3,294$43 inLost-$42.8990%0 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84d9…13b5backed Yes2c3,277$55 inLost-$55.520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb49…340bbacked Yes2c2,771$53 inLost-$53.4290%0 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes2c2,505$43 inLost-$42.934754.6%22 W · 453 L+14.7wins+0.03per pick2cpaid+144.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5533…51babacked Yes1c2,431$24 inLost-$24.391970%0 W · 197 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a84…7101backed Yes1c2,162$29 inLost-$29.363627.8%10 W · 26 L+5.7wins+0.16per pick12cpaid+6.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x803a…9b82backed Yes4c2,000$80 inLost-$8020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes1c1,709$22 inLost-$21.933013.3%4 W · 26 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick12cpaid+44.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0fc…6b2abacked Yes1c1,658$17 inLost-$17.560%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes1c1,591$11 inLost-$11.242922.1%6 W · 286 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick1cpaid-11.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3085…7568backed Yes1c1,284$18 inLost-$18.42581.2%3 W · 255 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-84%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes2c1,244$24 inLost-$23.64330%0 W · 33 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdc7f…2f05backed Yes2c745.7$13 inLost-$12.633514.3%5 W · 30 L+2.4wins+0.07per pick8cpaid+112.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbcd2…0eacbacked Yes3c672.35$22 inLost-$21.5220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c27…494bbacked Yes3c652.72$22 inLost-$21.52283.6%1 W · 27 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick8cpaid-81.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe190…0a5dbacked Yes2c601.04$11 inLost-$10.991031.9%2 W · 101 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick3cpaid-47.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac6a…57d1backed Yes6c518.95$32 inLost-$32.14326.3%2 W · 30 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-64.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa7ad…1e74backed Yes4c512.36$22 inLost-$22.0310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd95a…c9d2backed Yes4c422.94$18 inLost-$18.1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf10f…5dd7backed Yes4c391.97$17 inLost-$17.2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc549…cedcbacked Yes5c348.16$17 inLost-$17.26333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-44.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.