Token Launches · resolved market
Will Pump.fun launch a token by July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9c26bb8505b6c5ef6b5f5f2f8382d59f4867ad5d0d969cb128e66601b02fc407
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $793,508
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $869,861
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $793,508 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 225 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc23e…1461backed No | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…3e14backed Yes | 61c | 27,151$16,676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,474.78 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3402…9446backed No | 16c | 21,813$3,441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,440.79 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +5.0wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8804…feb3backed No | 13c | 20,356$2,742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,741.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa539…c472backed No | 1c | 18,791$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.18 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.32per pick | 25cpaid | +83%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x61c3…54c2backed No | 23c | 18,140$4,082 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,081.88 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x574e…3ef1backed No | 19c | 17,316$3,351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,351.22 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +7.7wins | +0.27per pick | 26cpaid | +103.1%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x090f…4579backed Yes | 71c | 15,811$11,222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,589.19 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7248…8cb4backed No | 1c | 13,150$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.27 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…9d67backed No | 2c | 11,708$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa970…d60dbacked No | 31c | 11,458$3,555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,555.09 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…dd49backed Yes | 64c | 11,331$7,286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,044.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed No | 0c | 10,090$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83a2…9452backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe75f…edafbacked Yes | 61c | 9,994$6,144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,850.07 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…faa8backed Yes | 54c | 9,930$5,407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,522.32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c95…3b35backed No | 35c | 9,628$3,370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,369.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaec6…33f2backed No | 35c | 9,483$3,319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,319.07 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 0c | 9,345$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.39 | 62 | 27.4%17 W · 45 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc6…bbc7backed No | 36c | 8,977$3,273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,273.31 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4f…c44bbacked No | 50c | 8,163$4,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,099.81 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -51%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9776…3e9bbacked No | 47c | 7,956$3,752 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,751.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked No | 0c | 7,187$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 57 | 1.8%1 W · 56 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +116.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31b6…3f0ebacked No | 32c | 7,121$2,283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,282.84 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x683a…3b03backed No | 8c | 6,427$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.09 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x741a…2b5dbacked No | 16c | 6,421$1,004 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,003.65 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa10d…e381backed No | 0c | 6,397$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 2c | 6,029$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.58 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | +128.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd0…2b4bbacked Yes | 55c | 5,847$3,206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,640.84 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +8.0wins | +0.26per pick | 48cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xfeef…01d6backed No | 2c | 5,634$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd36e…f9adbacked No | 1c | 4,989$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb87…6883backed No | 3c | 4,983$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…21b0backed No | 4c | 4,830$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.79 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | +8.0wins | +0.17per pick | 27cpaid | +64.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x80c6…4d8abacked No | 54c | 4,558$2,448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,447.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe922…39b3backed Yes | 57c | 4,390$2,498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,892.3 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34b1…bc54backed No | 28c | 3,826$1,064 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,064.34 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c57…0741backed No | 35c | 3,809$1,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,350 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3242…9dddbacked No | 25c | 3,208$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81f7…e1d3backed Yes | 75c | 3,000$2,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8b…c749backed Yes | 61c | 2,818$1,717 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,100.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49f2…3fd9backed Yes | 79c | 2,700$2,145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$555 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe047…e509backed No | 26c | 2,684$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$710 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5a…024bbacked Yes | 69c | 2,638$1,820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$817.64 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x400b…51e0backed No | 22c | 2,264$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81ff…81eabacked No | 22c | 2,243$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00cf…06f1backed No | 18c | 2,199$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.18 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 31cpaid | -84.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa5bf…8763backed Yes | 77c | 2,164$1,669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.93 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c82…1f13backed No | 14c | 2,073$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf1f…d148backed No | 1c | 2,058$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1285…6a2fbacked No | 18c | 2,045$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.66 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9215…d69ebacked No | 49c | 2,021$990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$990 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd626…89cebacked No | 5c | 2,000$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bad…ce41backed Yes | 48c | 1,970$943 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,026.99 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6090…39b4backed No | 13c | 1,831$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…cbacbacked Yes | 80c | 1,778$1,419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd697…def2backed Yes | 65c | 1,747$1,141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$605.99 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x700c…9368backed Yes | 69c | 1,645$1,128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517.11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc462…d348backed No | 35c | 1,531$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$541.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbc…5196backed Yes | 78c | 1,525$1,185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.98 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ba4…cd52backed No | 2c | 1,434$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x822e…5febbacked Yes | 71c | 1,413$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.69 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 15c | 1,405$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.15 | 357 | 12.9%46 W · 311 L | -29.9wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdada…806cbacked No | 9c | 1,340$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68f9…d046backed Yes | 76c | 1,315$999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.55 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ad…c74dbacked No | 34c | 1,200$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -63%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ff…d068backed No | 44c | 1,119$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18dc…5e90backed Yes | 65c | 1,118$727 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.94 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…8f5dbacked No | 32c | 1,079$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.36 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddd…53ebbacked No | 29c | 1,032$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.45 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe4a…bc74backed Yes | 74c | 1,023$755 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.74 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +20%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x620d…5c8cbacked No | 12c | 1,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9cb…b97abacked No | 37c | 997.45$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x583b…2ef1backed Yes | 70c | 960.51$676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -29%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c3…d4b9backed No | 16c | 900$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb61…58ffbacked No | 11c | 899.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c9…e1c3backed No | 30c | 864.28$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.29 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x314a…2fbdbacked Yes | 67c | 860$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.25 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92e9…e0cfbacked Yes | 70c | 816.06$574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 16c | 779.35$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.85 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8398…047fbacked No | 30c | 759.99$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb01b…e951backed No | 13c | 758.11$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc30…096abacked No | 21c | 725.78$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.87 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6278…e1b7backed Yes | 70c | 712.5$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ec…b5fcbacked Yes | 71c | 691.82$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.62 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8a…e17bbacked No | 38c | 644.62$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd52d…412dbacked No | 17c | 635.46$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34a1…c25fbacked Yes | 54c | 633$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.13 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc456…8996backed Yes | 67c | 619.99$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.74 | 195 | 43.1%84 W · 111 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9292…2cd1backed Yes | 71c | 593.37$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.01 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae77…378fbacked Yes | 58c | 570$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a5…98d0backed Yes | 52c | 568.27$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.4 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c1…cefebacked No | 33c | 545.95$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.05 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked No | 47c | 539.99$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.34 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed No | 17c | 528.68$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.51 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 61c | 499.02$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.27 | 134 | 24.6%33 W · 101 L | -14.8wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1696…8bf6backed No | 24c | 458.5$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4c…cb39backed No | 23c | 449.6$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.41 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 32c | 441.72$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.22 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed No | 16c | 405.14$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.39 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -52%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c8…5ababacked No | 35c | 400$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.18 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Pump.fun launch a token by July 31? this page
- Will Pump.fun launch a token by December 31? Yes won
- Will Pump.fun launch a token by June 30? No won
- Will Pump.fun launch a token by September 30? Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.