TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

Will Pump.fun launch a token by June 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$215,508
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$221,179

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $215,508 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 123 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6bad…ce41backed Yes10c24,275$2,387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,386.94560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed No79c12,624$9,982 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,642.343228.1%9 W · 23 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-48.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6262…a5efbacked Yes37c9,705$3,580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,58010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe67b…3ec6backed Yes2c9,194$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-34.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe75f…edafbacked No66c8,295$5,510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,784.3475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+12.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa8b…c749backed Yes18c6,334$1,133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,133.1250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-17.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x27bf…d349backed Yes11c6,200$677 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36f4…3e14backed Yes22c5,781$1,248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,247.84742.9%3 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-24.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x864c…6808backed Yes5c5,382$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.0710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaec6…33f2backed No61c5,037$3,069 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,968.56475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick48cpaid+66.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Yes12c4,580$548 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$548.28825%2 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-59.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xad3f…c749backed Yes41c4,112$1,679 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,678.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed No77c3,950$3,059 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$891.412944.8%13 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+22.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa40a…fa62backed Yes34c3,917$1,321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,320.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes3c3,233$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.186227.4%17 W · 45 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick28cpaid+13.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69f1…fe92backed Yes37c3,129$1,162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,16210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9292…2cd1backed Yes29c3,125$892 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$892.281752.9%9 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc178…35b3backed No4c3,032$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,907.755100%5 W · 0 L+3.3wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+622.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xe075…a98cbacked Yes41c2,900$1,201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,200.6730%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes28c2,871$802 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$802.1613424.6%33 W · 101 L-14.8wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-33.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7a6e…1b79backed No65c2,652$1,717 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$935.09425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-61.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe854…269fbacked Yes2c2,238$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.12450%2 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+24.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x34a1…c25fbacked Yes24c1,956$468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$468.24540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-32.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe330…095cbacked Yes59c1,740$1,027 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,027.0310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x490f…17e5backed Yes8c1,740$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.311330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-52%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c95…3b35backed No67c1,704$1,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$563.84250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-25.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18dc…5e90backed Yes23c1,657$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$388.541457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03ba…77d6backed Yes24c1,656$394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394.164440.9%18 W · 26 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-18.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6278…e1b7backed Yes52c1,422$745 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$744.8250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-28.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x446d…1995backed No69c1,403$971 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$432.07250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-27.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x141e…8c87backed No65c1,199$778 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$421.07560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+40.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x768f…d08cbacked Yes35c1,195$422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421.641118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-22.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4324…a086backed No55c1,151$633 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$517.77250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid-9.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x54bb…35e5backed Yes25c1,146$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.51425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-66.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9415…9d21backed Yes52c1,114$579 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x700c…9368backed Yes25c1,063$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-63.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16ba…f14fbacked Yes24c1,000$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes2c999.99$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21510%0 W · 51 L-3.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x42f5…4a35backed No46c913.6$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$493.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9215…d69ebacked No77c896.07$690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.07250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-35.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x094e…f10bbacked Yes36c880.76$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.22832.1%9 W · 19 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-30.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd9b…ec76backed Yes2c777.77$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf19c…7f26backed Yes51c701.22$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-36.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2cb5…0483backed No80c690.92$551 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.921100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No76c605.35$463 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.2921240.6%86 W · 126 L-9.2wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-16.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x03fb…edfcbacked Yes19c599.97$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d55…e1e7backed Yes17c598.71$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd2ae…5d52backed Yes3c585.43$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes5c583.15$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.69280%0 W · 28 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4a49…7447backed Yes31c540.82$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.47425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa48e…b476backed No75c531.74$396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.552321.7%5 W · 18 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick28cpaid-43%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes24c514.71$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.957663.3%25 W · 741 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-75.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x404a…575dbacked Yes30c503.2$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.764647.8%22 W · 24 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+55.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x24de…83cbbacked No71c503$357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.743100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x326d…ec8fbacked Yes22c499.99$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes17c498.98$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.2235712.9%46 W · 311 L-29.9wins-0.08per pick21cpaid-55.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5cd9…bccebacked No75c489.47$368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.39540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-41.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e65…7bc1backed Yes37c480$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.2560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes40c465$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.857621.1%16 W · 60 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-46.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ee2…bea6backed Yes33c414.24$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.354544.4%20 W · 25 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7122…4e23backed Yes18c386.77$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7030%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x314a…2fbdbacked Yes23c386$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.79757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick50cpaid-19%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x34b1…bc54backed No47c326.26$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.72560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+43.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x433a…38e5backed Yes29c315.24$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.29per pick54cpaid-57.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x477d…e691backed Yes33c301.15$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001323.1%3 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-61%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ebb…eeaebacked No76c300$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$721100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf9d…a540backed No75c284.99$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.695100%5 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+78.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x495c…512bbacked Yes37c266.87$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002035%7 W · 13 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-48.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xea01…c767backed Yes31c259.19$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.06616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.26per pick43cpaid-74.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3e09…2d11backed Yes33c254.45$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.9720%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x55d8…74f1backed Yes42c238.44$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb40c…f89bbacked Yes30c218.5$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.54633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-16.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf388…7f67backed No65c216.97$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.97475%3 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.34per pick41cpaid+64.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7f88…a763backed Yes24c200$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e14…170cbacked Yes24c200$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed No65c200$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$701275%9 W · 3 L+2.5wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+99.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed No69c187.09$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.741428.6%4 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick29cpaid-19.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcced…9ffebacked Yes30c186.65$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.34650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-25.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72aa…3b8bbacked No74c180.46$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.92580%4 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.28per pick52cpaid+30%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd643…2177backed Yes7c175.84$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.12250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-19.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8d6…0062backed Yes47c171.57$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e77…e626backed No44c170$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x58f9…5824backed No74c167.56$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.56450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1141…971ebacked Yes20c164.71$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3330%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4f69…49ddbacked Yes17c160$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes14c157.06$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.6816740.7%68 W · 99 L-10.7wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-37.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2cde…5b98backed No12c151.48$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.31844.4%8 W · 10 L+5.8wins+0.32per pick12cpaid+985.3%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xbb70…6c66backed Yes14c144.94$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid+92.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb03…46dcbacked No77c140.27$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.682339.1%9 W · 14 L-4.0wins-0.17per pick57cpaid-39.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5a7b…fdd1backed No76c132.12$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.12425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.30per pick55cpaid-67%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x663f…bb92backed No76c132.12$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+32.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf626…8a12backed Yes31c113.87$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-48.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b3d…3533backed Yes19c105.26$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-30.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe82c…dadabacked Yes24c105$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4a3…0e45backed No60c100$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x715b…3ee1backed No79c100$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-16.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4182…840bbacked No67c97.12$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.12475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x96ac…a67bbacked Yes21c95.24$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7c8…5ababacked No64c90$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.2580%4 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick66cpaid+9.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa021…b489backed Yes34c90$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.