Token Launches · resolved market
Will Pump.fun launch a token by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd0a17f82d45e78fbd3762e1807b3c77b5267252aaaa7563872d6bf77fd4867c7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $215,508
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $221,179
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $215,508 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 123 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6bad…ce41backed Yes | 10c | 24,275$2,387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,386.94 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed No | 79c | 12,624$9,982 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,642.34 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6262…a5efbacked Yes | 37c | 9,705$3,580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,580 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe67b…3ec6backed Yes | 2c | 9,194$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe75f…edafbacked No | 66c | 8,295$5,510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,784.3 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8b…c749backed Yes | 18c | 6,334$1,133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,133.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27bf…d349backed Yes | 11c | 6,200$677 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$677 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…3e14backed Yes | 22c | 5,781$1,248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,247.84 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x864c…6808backed Yes | 5c | 5,382$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaec6…33f2backed No | 61c | 5,037$3,069 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,968.56 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Yes | 12c | 4,580$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548.28 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad3f…c749backed Yes | 41c | 4,112$1,679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,678.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 77c | 3,950$3,059 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$891.41 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa40a…fa62backed Yes | 34c | 3,917$1,321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,320.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 3c | 3,233$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.18 | 62 | 27.4%17 W · 45 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f1…fe92backed Yes | 37c | 3,129$1,162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,162 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9292…2cd1backed Yes | 29c | 3,125$892 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$892.28 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc178…35b3backed No | 4c | 3,032$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,907.75 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +3.3wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +622.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe075…a98cbacked Yes | 41c | 2,900$1,201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200.67 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 28c | 2,871$802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$802.16 | 134 | 24.6%33 W · 101 L | -14.8wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7a6e…1b79backed No | 65c | 2,652$1,717 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$935.09 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe854…269fbacked Yes | 2c | 2,238$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.12 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34a1…c25fbacked Yes | 24c | 1,956$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.24 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe330…095cbacked Yes | 59c | 1,740$1,027 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,027.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 8c | 1,740$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.31 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -52%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c95…3b35backed No | 67c | 1,704$1,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18dc…5e90backed Yes | 23c | 1,657$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.54 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…77d6backed Yes | 24c | 1,656$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.16 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6278…e1b7backed Yes | 52c | 1,422$745 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$744.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x446d…1995backed No | 69c | 1,403$971 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x141e…8c87backed No | 65c | 1,199$778 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.07 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked Yes | 35c | 1,195$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.64 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4324…a086backed No | 55c | 1,151$633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54bb…35e5backed Yes | 25c | 1,146$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.51 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9415…9d21backed Yes | 52c | 1,114$579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$579 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x700c…9368backed Yes | 25c | 1,063$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16ba…f14fbacked Yes | 24c | 1,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 2c | 999.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 51 | 0%0 W · 51 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42f5…4a35backed No | 46c | 913.6$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9215…d69ebacked No | 77c | 896.07$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…f10bbacked Yes | 36c | 880.76$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.2 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd9b…ec76backed Yes | 2c | 777.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf19c…7f26backed Yes | 51c | 701.22$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb5…0483backed No | 80c | 690.92$551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 76c | 605.35$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.29 | 212 | 40.6%86 W · 126 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03fb…edfcbacked Yes | 19c | 599.97$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d55…e1e7backed Yes | 17c | 598.71$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…5d52backed Yes | 3c | 585.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 5c | 583.15$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.69 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a49…7447backed Yes | 31c | 540.82$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.47 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa48e…b476backed No | 75c | 531.74$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.55 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -43%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 24c | 514.71$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.95 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x404a…575dbacked Yes | 30c | 503.2$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.76 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24de…83cbbacked No | 71c | 503$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.74 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x326d…ec8fbacked Yes | 22c | 499.99$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 17c | 498.98$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.22 | 357 | 12.9%46 W · 311 L | -29.9wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd9…bccebacked No | 75c | 489.47$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.39 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e65…7bc1backed Yes | 37c | 480$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 40c | 465$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.85 | 76 | 21.1%16 W · 60 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee2…bea6backed Yes | 33c | 414.24$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.35 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7122…4e23backed Yes | 18c | 386.77$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x314a…2fbdbacked Yes | 23c | 386$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.79 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34b1…bc54backed No | 47c | 326.26$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.72 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x433a…38e5backed Yes | 29c | 315.24$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x477d…e691backed Yes | 33c | 301.15$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -61%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ebb…eeaebacked No | 76c | 300$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9d…a540backed No | 75c | 284.99$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.69 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +78.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x495c…512bbacked Yes | 37c | 266.87$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea01…c767backed Yes | 31c | 259.19$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.06 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 43cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e09…2d11backed Yes | 33c | 254.45$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55d8…74f1backed Yes | 42c | 238.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40c…f89bbacked Yes | 30c | 218.5$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.54 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf388…7f67backed No | 65c | 216.97$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.97 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 41cpaid | +64.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f88…a763backed Yes | 24c | 200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e14…170cbacked Yes | 24c | 200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 65c | 200$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +99.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed No | 69c | 187.09$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.74 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcced…9ffebacked Yes | 30c | 186.65$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.34 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…3b8bbacked No | 74c | 180.46$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.92 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +30%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd643…2177backed Yes | 7c | 175.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d6…0062backed Yes | 47c | 171.57$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e77…e626backed No | 44c | 170$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58f9…5824backed No | 74c | 167.56$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.56 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1141…971ebacked Yes | 20c | 164.71$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f69…49ddbacked Yes | 17c | 160$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 14c | 157.06$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 167 | 40.7%68 W · 99 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed No | 12c | 151.48$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.3 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +5.8wins | +0.32per pick | 12cpaid | +985.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xbb70…6c66backed Yes | 14c | 144.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb03…46dcbacked No | 77c | 140.27$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.68 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -4.0wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7b…fdd1backed No | 76c | 132.12$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -67%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x663f…bb92backed No | 76c | 132.12$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf626…8a12backed Yes | 31c | 113.87$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b3d…3533backed Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe82c…dadabacked Yes | 24c | 105$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4a3…0e45backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x715b…3ee1backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4182…840bbacked No | 67c | 97.12$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.12 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96ac…a67bbacked Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c8…5ababacked No | 64c | 90$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.2 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa021…b489backed Yes | 34c | 90$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Pump.fun launch a token by June 30? this page
- Will Pump.fun launch a token by December 31? Yes won
- Will Pump.fun launch a token by July 31? Yes won
- Will Pump.fun launch a token by September 30? Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.