TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

Will Pump.fun launch a token in 2024?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$253,550
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$260,869

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $253,550 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 221 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x07d4…8991backed Yes7c14,437$1,007 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,006.61626.5%4 W · 58 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-76.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed No75c11,141$8,363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,777.27919%15 W · 64 L-6.0wins-0.08per pick27cpaid-63.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7c14…9073backed Yes26c10,847$2,824 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,823.5410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf98b…bfc5backed No57c9,881$5,603 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,278.34425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-55.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb49e…118fbacked Yes23c8,560$1,929 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,929.2440%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd56d…65debacked Yes43c8,383$3,584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,584.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6606…1338backed No68c7,401$5,035 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,366.182454.2%13 W · 11 L+2.1wins+0.09per pick46cpaid-8.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x59d1…696cbacked Yes58c6,945$4,043 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,043.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3fde…803bbacked Yes39c6,786$2,629 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,629.420%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a26…1851backed No58c6,390$3,729 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,661.521060%6 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+2.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xad1d…e2b7backed Yes80c6,282$5,005 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,004.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb0c5…0573backed Yes36c5,524$1,998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,998.4910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8cfc…730bbacked No66c4,857$3,226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,630.811100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+50.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed No53c4,563$2,434 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,129.0511833.9%40 W · 78 L+0.4wins0.00per pick34cpaid-36.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc360…0c46backed No66c4,531$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,530.65475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+24.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x88f7…fe6ebacked Yes35c4,333$1,507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,506.6820%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6ea…3ea8backed Yes26c4,030$1,047 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,047.431136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick28cpaid-21.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x013d…3e88backed No71c3,991$2,837 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,153.921637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-28.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x382c…a0d7backed No71c3,905$2,757 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,148.88714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.19per pick33cpaid-79.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed Yes8c3,759$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.59848.3%7 W · 77 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick11cpaid-29.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9bd5…4fdcbacked Yes33c3,498$1,154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,154.2110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbf3…b218backed Yes27c3,478$928 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92820%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe172…1c37backed Yes30c3,309$1,005 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,004.74520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-58.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa98…4a57backed No74c3,067$2,270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$797.641580%12 W · 3 L+4.4wins+0.29per pick51cpaid+59.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes12c3,017$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358.4133329.7%99 W · 234 L+0.2wins0.00per pick30cpaid-42.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8bb4…8167backed No6c2,756$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,590.491376.9%10 W · 3 L+8.1wins+0.63per pick14cpaid+774.6%equal weight74+0.21 edge/pick
0xbc26…24d0backed Yes24c2,091$502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501.8330%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa653…b36ebacked Yes34c2,026$686 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$686.0910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x360c…89bfbacked Yes31c2,000$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes60c2,000$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2002931%9 W · 20 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-28.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes32c1,994$632 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$632.3713424.6%33 W · 101 L-14.8wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-33.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2536…3a83backed No73c1,626$1,194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$432.02366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0905…2d9ebacked Yes29c1,549$449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7efd…be64backed No73c1,544$1,127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$416.951100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d67…776bbacked Yes27c1,500$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc5d2…a2a8backed Yes27c1,500$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3726…cf8abacked No73c1,500$1,095 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4051100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8975…e6dbbacked Yes38c1,420$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$539.75520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-57.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0e6…50aebacked No16c1,250$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0501145.5%5 W · 6 L+3.1wins+0.28per pick17cpaid+225.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa57a…66d6backed No61c1,225$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$474.64666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+71.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x54a6…91d9backed Yes1c1,222$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes6c1,219$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.28456.7%3 W · 42 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick3cpaid+272.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a50…3ddabacked Yes31c1,198$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b06…846dbacked No58c1,063$616 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4471100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc42…ff9dbacked Yes6c1,029$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.4710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x02ad…8be9backed No73c1,000$730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2701100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd72b…99dabacked Yes28c1,000$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e71…a8d3backed No72c1,000$720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2801100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4cb8…c0e9backed Yes27c1,000$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c72…ee4cbacked No74c991.91$734 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.8366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick55cpaid-6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xece1…2b04backed Yes15c966.67$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c6f…9654backed Yes2c944.89$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe077…8ee3backed Yes23c910.94$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.484318.6%8 W · 35 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick15cpaid-3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b41…5dedbacked Yes16c803.93$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.63633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick21cpaid+39%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6116…f247backed No78c793.47$621 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.09862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick50cpaid-5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3e92…f3abbacked Yes9c714.4$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6925…8189backed Yes5c703.89$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe67b…3ec6backed No76c660.32$502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.95250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-34.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21d6…86fdbacked Yes15c652.9$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100850%4 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+102.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa248…19d9backed No79c632.91$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.912100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+59.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6216…5403backed Yes8c600$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-68.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd77…9debbacked Yes2c599.04$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x070a…50ffbacked Yes3c571.36$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes14c548.36$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.1816927.8%47 W · 122 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid+8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9bfd…bf6abacked Yes58c521.49$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c35…2ce3backed Yes15c516.69$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe0a2…a349backed No77c508.12$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.578052.5%42 W · 38 L+11.1wins+0.14per pick39cpaid+40.5%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xdb0d…d6f9backed No62c503.88$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.74666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.24per pick42cpaid+36.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8c22…72c8backed No71c503.11$355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.661100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7dd0…2b4bbacked No55c500$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2253174.2%23 W · 8 L+8.0wins+0.26per pick48cpaid+44.1%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0xa69f…6874backed Yes19c474$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.531323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.7wins-0.21per pick44cpaid-69.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x199d…589abacked Yes43c467.44$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x17eb…3951backed Yes17c459.3$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.3420%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x33c5…2230backed No66c456.18$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.18742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick32cpaid+27.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x57cd…ea68backed Yes27c447.97$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.95757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.15per pick42cpaid+40.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe951…221fbacked Yes27c424.49$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe598…4677backed No51c415.97$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.79666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+11.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7bac…c726backed Yes4c414.84$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4cf7…28bbbacked Yes12c402.11$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5050%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4cc2…9271backed No61c394.68$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.414731.9%15 W · 32 L-5.0wins-0.11per pick43cpaid-42.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6245…d3c0backed No78c385.82$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.641241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-25%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e79…cd76backed Yes4c377.46$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x588f…0cb6backed No64c355$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.7333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-47.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea5b…0711backed No26c353.06$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.151100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.74per pick26cpaid+280%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x76c9…1917backed No73c350$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.55330.2%16 W · 37 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7585…dcd9backed Yes50c333$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e5a…34d2backed No60c330.66$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.662100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+82.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc392…511bbacked No57c322.93$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.841225%3 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-49.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes35c300$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1051428.6%4 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick29cpaid-19.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83bf…8d63backed Yes10c300$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-56.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x46bd…2842backed No60c280.25$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.33250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid-16.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ba1…1703backed Yes22c275.74$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60650%3 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x91a1…57b9backed Yes6c270$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.57333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-56.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb8e…1d33backed Yes34c260.45$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.631136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-47.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x73b8…f6b5backed No79c260$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.6425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-68.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeee8…7e06backed Yes8c253.07$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201717.6%3 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-46.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca03…91b8backed No55c250.44$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.71650%8 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-2.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x06be…3b32backed Yes6c249.94$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes38c235.31$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.011533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+113.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb99…6844backed Yes25c233.76$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.44933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+552.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.