Middle East · resolved market
Will a nuclear weapon detonate in 2024?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2efa6f490f03e75f573d2c4a90bf24e71fa6db5878ca09fd3b6698e3d4a293b4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,742,982
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,696,852
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,742,982 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 698 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7a27…72aabacked Yes | 11c | 307,412$32,284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32,284.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 13c | 288,133$38,704 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38,703.72 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…f2cbbacked Yes | 6c | 198,740$12,865 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,864.99 | 76 | 10.5%8 W · 68 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38af…2b76backed Yes | 7c | 141,825$9,834 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,833.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86a5…5ac2backed Yes | 7c | 86,776$6,313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,312.54 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | +95.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a6f…4999backed Yes | 7c | 83,529$5,664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,664.19 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d23…8f86backed Yes | 11c | 67,169$7,222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,222.02 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24b2…5c6dbacked Yes | 14c | 64,781$9,253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,253.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x799a…48d6backed No | 79c | 59,273$47,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,272.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89ad…b45bbacked Yes | 5c | 59,249$2,681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,681.44 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x287e…72ccbacked Yes | 10c | 48,529$4,629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,628.75 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88dd…5767backed Yes | 8c | 44,594$3,435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,435.45 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c1…648dbacked Yes | 6c | 41,236$2,438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,437.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x585b…753fbacked Yes | 6c | 39,684$2,248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,247.6 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f5…9663backed Yes | 5c | 35,709$1,902 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,901.89 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8642…bc74backed Yes | 9c | 34,037$3,089 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,089.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55af…34aabacked Yes | 10c | 32,881$3,288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,288.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c66…79c7backed Yes | 10c | 32,348$3,235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,234.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9739…159fbacked Yes | 6c | 30,574$1,871 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,871.37 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…5f7bbacked Yes | 9c | 30,000$2,718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,718.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b87…d95cbacked No | 76c | 26,752$20,335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,417.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd54a…b9cbbacked Yes | 0c | 24,259$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb58…a9a1backed Yes | 7c | 23,992$1,601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,601.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e29…740fbacked Yes | 1c | 23,554$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.15 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -91.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00ed…f54dbacked Yes | 15c | 22,895$3,490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,490.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 3c | 22,627$789 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$789.36 | 27 | 0%0 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf29d…c106backed Yes | 9c | 22,223$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fbe…d7e1backed Yes | 7c | 20,486$1,467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,466.9 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -55%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3df…6f87backed Yes | 5c | 20,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 73 | 11%8 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4e…9020backed Yes | 10c | 19,529$1,953 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,952.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe410…de46backed Yes | 12c | 18,883$2,261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,260.51 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1d…c4c8backed Yes | 10c | 17,709$1,771 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,770.75 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6cc0…fb02backed Yes | 6c | 17,491$1,049 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,049.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa674…6631backed Yes | 6c | 16,664$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x678b…5482backed Yes | 9c | 15,912$1,377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,376.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c54…7e8cbacked Yes | 7c | 15,306$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$998.77 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 18cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd68f…3ad4backed Yes | 6c | 15,049$903 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$902.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5afa…cafbbacked Yes | 8c | 14,597$1,238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,237.72 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x054b…8477backed Yes | 5c | 14,590$706 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$705.69 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 4c | 13,105$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.38 | 96 | 4.2%4 W · 92 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6622…a384backed Yes | 10c | 12,813$1,232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,231.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24b8…2eb5backed Yes | 1c | 12,564$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe46f…9ab9backed Yes | 11c | 11,781$1,313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,313.21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 7c | 10,789$738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$737.65 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 1c | 10,457$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 141 | 29.8%42 W · 99 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc930…9ed4backed Yes | 10c | 10,240$1,012 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,012 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +81.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fda…01d5backed Yes | 1c | 10,100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.5 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4512…84f9backed Yes | 10c | 9,999$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x500b…0c81backed Yes | 10c | 9,838$966 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$965.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe1…05e8backed Yes | 5c | 9,764$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -60%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f8…3a3cbacked Yes | 1c | 9,088$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd46b…5dabbacked Yes | 9c | 8,333$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 167 | 43.7%73 W · 94 L | +11.9wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +21%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3a0…d247backed Yes | 10c | 8,244$843 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$842.8 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7824…0b03backed Yes | 8c | 8,105$648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$648.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae2…94bebacked Yes | 9c | 7,661$726 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$725.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3338…1251backed Yes | 11c | 7,463$817 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$817 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa102…36d9backed Yes | 8c | 6,965$538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$538.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ea8…e47ebacked Yes | 1c | 6,720$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52c9…7f71backed Yes | 9c | 6,542$589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588.78 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x872d…159bbacked No | 79c | 6,122$4,836 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,285.55 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 64cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc369…4e87backed Yes | 6c | 5,700$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.5 | 72 | 6.9%5 W · 67 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…d4a6backed Yes | 13c | 5,699$723 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$722.53 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74c5…0c87backed Yes | 9c | 5,589$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc8…40a8backed Yes | 9c | 5,544$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cba…6a4cbacked Yes | 6c | 5,463$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.37 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -61%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb0…5a2bbacked Yes | 4c | 5,405$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96a4…4d01backed Yes | 3c | 5,355$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.16 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f79…963abacked Yes | 0c | 5,182$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab6d…b458backed Yes | 13c | 5,032$674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$674.44 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +92.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 9c | 5,024$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.49 | 82 | 20.7%17 W · 65 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x488b…e1e8backed Yes | 10c | 5,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf18f…294cbacked Yes | 17c | 5,000$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce64…b8f5backed Yes | 10c | 4,941$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.41 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e29…f25bbacked Yes | 8c | 4,889$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cc…387abacked Yes | 16c | 4,873$794 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$793.9 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfee1…b641backed Yes | 6c | 4,848$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbac…83aebacked Yes | 1c | 4,720$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb600…55a0backed Yes | 1c | 4,688$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaad…69ccbacked Yes | 11c | 4,591$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518.21 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x911c…d748backed Yes | 17c | 4,509$746 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$745.79 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +113.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1af…d889backed Yes | 9c | 4,500$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.99 | 38 | 7.9%3 W · 35 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -66%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49a4…da0fbacked Yes | 9c | 4,444$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf904…85ecbacked Yes | 5c | 4,403$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.48 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -48%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…c1cebacked Yes | 10c | 4,251$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.02 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 23cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x004d…665bbacked No | 73c | 4,150$3,029 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,120.99 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 10c | 4,143$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.87 | 284 | 27.8%79 W · 205 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8272…14bbbacked Yes | 8c | 4,018$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.41 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…7851backed Yes | 3c | 4,000$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.67 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +80.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79c4…d1c7backed Yes | 9c | 4,000$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b64…49bdbacked Yes | 8c | 4,000$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -6.4wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3db0…1905backed No | 76c | 4,000$3,039 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc30a…1a0dbacked Yes | 17c | 3,974$679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$678.8 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.24per pick | 46cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e7…fc15backed Yes | 8c | 3,868$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.23 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd352…4ad6backed Yes | 9c | 3,819$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.23 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -3.3wins | -0.19per pick | 43cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9654…a94ebacked No | 79c | 3,797$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$797.47 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a66…9051backed Yes | 11c | 3,738$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d4…010dbacked No | 74c | 3,709$2,762 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$947.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed Yes | 16c | 3,695$577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$576.53 | 138 | 23.2%32 W · 106 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14da…7bbabacked Yes | 4c | 3,645$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaade…ae6cbacked Yes | 9c | 3,546$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.