Us Midterms · resolved market
Will a Democrat win Florida US Senate Election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd092a7bd509c547431c12e86c8e7df40194da3790af8b34aeee04dcbf2e2359f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $312,749
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $302,728
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $312,749 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x74d1…1a60backed Yes | 14c | 31,313$4,457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,457 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a45…4a71backed Yes | 9c | 24,621$2,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,200 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd535…fa67backed Yes | 19c | 13,462$2,603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,602.68 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +149.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8714…4750backed Yes | 11c | 13,198$1,510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,509.79 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf118…1f58backed Yes | 12c | 11,472$1,355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,355.27 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed Yes | 16c | 11,357$1,828 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,827.52 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5696…9df8backed Yes | 17c | 8,732$1,445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,444.53 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x35e3…1a7bbacked Yes | 8c | 6,250$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 13c | 5,204$665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$664.83 | 58 | 24.1%14 W · 44 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b9…bb50backed Yes | 7c | 4,285$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.95 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ac0…041fbacked Yes | 18c | 4,000$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8393…f0aebacked Yes | 18c | 3,600$648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$648 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 34cpaid | -85.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4bba…d81fbacked Yes | 17c | 3,465$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef13…bab1backed Yes | 9c | 2,972$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7891…08c9backed Yes | 10c | 2,899$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1e…37e2backed Yes | 8c | 2,679$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2365…8eb9backed Yes | 17c | 2,588$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.96 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +4.2wins | +0.18per pick | 20cpaid | +104.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 11c | 1,856$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.89 | 81 | 33.3%27 W · 54 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x740e…fff3backed Yes | 10c | 1,500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58db…e80bbacked Yes | 18c | 1,113$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.34 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45cc…6400backed Yes | 12c | 1,100$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x958e…dfe3backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3aa7…ab3cbacked Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63fc…7b05backed Yes | 20c | 900$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47c2…212fbacked Yes | 15c | 700$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x454d…16f4backed Yes | 10c | 615.78$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dcf…9aeebacked Yes | 16c | 602.63$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f20…6673backed Yes | 9c | 564.94$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 17c | 555$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.35 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8505…b488backed Yes | 19c | 526.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7edc…29cbbacked Yes | 16c | 500$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 19c | 500$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d09…6d4ebacked Yes | 11c | 454.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e66…4383backed Yes | 11c | 454.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x481c…73eebacked Yes | 25c | 449$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.25 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +71.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd86b…a8e3backed Yes | 17c | 430$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x535f…5ce5backed No | 76c | 420$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe0…f2a8backed Yes | 13c | 402$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.08 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…1e98backed No | 77c | 399.91$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.98 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe13b…8a63backed Yes | 18c | 350$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x250e…e864backed Yes | 12c | 300$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde79…06abbacked Yes | 18c | 300$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd061…d5e4backed Yes | 14c | 300$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09a6…3f7abacked Yes | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x525e…3061backed Yes | 9c | 300$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba9a…9e65backed Yes | 18c | 277.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e40…c89dbacked Yes | 9c | 275$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.19per pick | 27cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x85ad…363abacked Yes | 13c | 272.3$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40ad…d41ebacked Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f90…b364backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd687…f71dbacked Yes | 10c | 249.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea68…4a15backed Yes | 9c | 225.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe896…0b70backed Yes | 38c | 202.85$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.54 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.25per pick | 47cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Yes | 24c | 200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 11c | 194.51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 272 | 22.1%60 W · 212 L | -15.0wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2e…75eabacked Yes | 16c | 176.92$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc411…caa7backed Yes | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -87.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8572…58cdbacked Yes | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeddf…462fbacked Yes | 18c | 157.5$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc4b…8c5bbacked Yes | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 16c | 135$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.06 | 77 | 31.2%24 W · 53 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ada…bcccbacked Yes | 19c | 131.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…f8a5backed Yes | 18c | 111.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x694c…919dbacked Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf4…7021backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12a7…399bbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6643…0109backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 44cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x896f…715bbacked Yes | 23c | 87.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3747…bd4bbacked Yes | 14c | 80$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed Yes | 18c | 66.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fce…2566backed Yes | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -65%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ba…a286backed No | 77c | 44.39$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will a Democrat win Florida US Senate Election?this page
- Will a Republican win Florida US Senate Election?Yes won
- Will a candidate from another party win Florida US Senate Election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.