Us Midterms · resolved market
Will a Republican win Florida US Senate Election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc65fdad4b98c013eb3bdf964f36fa595f82d0fed3916ba2da6d4568355b167a8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $297,222
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $325,771
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $297,222 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5696…9df8backed No | 16c | 20,994$3,407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,407.48 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed No | 16c | 9,024$1,456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,456.37 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf118…1f58backed No | 13c | 7,526$962 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$961.77 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe05d…aea2backed Yes | 79c | 3,206$2,541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$665.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ac0…041fbacked No | 18c | 3,000$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa373…e179backed No | 10c | 1,856$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63f1…6272backed No | 6c | 1,250$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8705…abdcbacked No | 11c | 909.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7831…3a88backed No | 12c | 833.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x481c…73eebacked No | 26c | 598$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.48 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +71.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed No | 17c | 587.02$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.26 | 58 | 24.1%14 W · 44 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45cc…6400backed No | 17c | 500$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3399…e5fbbacked No | 16c | 449.82$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.88 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed No | 19c | 400$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ba…a286backed No | 19c | 318$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.86 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6238…57c8backed No | 17c | 294.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x688e…a8f1backed No | 52c | 280.72$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde69…c751backed No | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc411…caa7backed No | 16c | 238.46$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -87.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe896…0b70backed No | 52c | 220$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.25per pick | 47cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed No | 26c | 200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed No | 22c | 160$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | +93.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf78…c8c4backed Yes | 78c | 150$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f8b…0159backed No | 17c | 143.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -71%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe0…f2a8backed No | 14c | 120$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed No | 17c | 97.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc81…a6a5backed Yes | 77c | 25.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.81 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36ce…12cbbacked Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will a Republican win Florida US Senate Election?this page
- Will a Democrat win Florida US Senate Election?No won
- Will a candidate from another party win Florida US Senate Election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.