Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index hit 80 by April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0f89770de1426eaa4b2baee51b206dc2efb584fdb35167b6d9023491669927e0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,278
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,748
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,278 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde79…06abbacked Yes | 10c | 769.28$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.64 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 3c | 456.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 281 | 13.2%37 W · 244 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b63…bb9cbacked Yes | 23c | 441$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf31…454abacked Yes | 28c | 420.83$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.89 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c1…bdb9backed Yes | 30c | 406.07$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.02 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2191…628ebacked Yes | 10c | 381.8$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef37…f2bcbacked Yes | 23c | 333$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a40…4093backed Yes | 11c | 302.38$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.05 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…fa0bbacked Yes | 11c | 300.8$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…0137backed No | 77c | 291$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab51…2473backed Yes | 12c | 282$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.84 | 118 | 13.6%16 W · 102 L | +10.9wins | +0.09per pick | 4cpaid | +281.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 11c | 243$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.73 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17be…7a33backed No | 77c | 172$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf1…68cabacked No | 77c | 161$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae4…d837backed No | 77c | 124$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 26c | 104.65$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.29 | 149 | 9.4%14 W · 135 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9fd…1fa0backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.25per pick | 34cpaid | -86.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Yes | 22c | 53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 34cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked No | 78c | 53$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +109%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +84.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…5ca7backed No | 64c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x914d…e1e2backed No | 76c | 36.48$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d39…e7a0backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2b…a065backed No | 77c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc18b…3917backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 26cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index hit 80 by April 30?this page
- Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index dip to 40 by April 30?No won
- Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index dip to 50 by April 30?Yes won
- Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index hit 70 by April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.