Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index hit 70 by April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9623d1115fd64fabf31311eb3421600ab2d67a08a45071f42f131944baa29e44
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,662
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,514
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,662 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0b69…6622backed No | 73c | 1,587$1,159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c6f…469fbacked Yes | 27c | 952$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6eaa…4456backed Yes | 27c | 919$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee4…9964backed Yes | 27c | 907$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf666…8842backed No | 73c | 674$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x246f…0ab2backed Yes | 31c | 583$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x326e…c7b9backed No | 69c | 583$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5d…5f6abacked No | 73c | 517$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc18b…3917backed Yes | 27c | 320$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.3 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 26cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9728…0314backed No | 71c | 213.64$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.43 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3121…dec8backed No | 52c | 163.7$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.86 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +86%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9fd…1fa0backed Yes | 35c | 149.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.25per pick | 34cpaid | -86.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c1…bdb9backed Yes | 52c | 146.56$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.41 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf31…454abacked No | 57c | 118.96$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.46 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed No | 45c | 117$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 34cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Yes | 55c | 117$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.35 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +109%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25db…28debacked Yes | 33c | 111.61$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.1 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2714…4a66backed No | 68c | 109.93$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4552…0333backed No | 50c | 84.57$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.88 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Yes | 25c | 74.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab51…2473backed Yes | 30c | 73.54$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 118 | 13.6%16 W · 102 L | +10.9wins | +0.09per pick | 4cpaid | +281.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd56d…12a9backed No | 70c | 57.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbe0…4623backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fcd…c60dbacked No | 64c | 46.7$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…0d14backed Yes | 36c | 40.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 69c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes | 37c | 28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 41cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7efb…68a1backed Yes | 40c | 25.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbae0…6ca6backed Yes | 63c | 20.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index hit 70 by April 30?this page
- Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index dip to 40 by April 30?No won
- Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index dip to 50 by April 30?Yes won
- Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index hit 80 by April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.