Middle East · resolved market
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by March 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xae84617a8f3376e77079b66978f5316276e48427da596605812652bf5a15ee8f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $662,477
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $578,277
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $662,477 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 249 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe61a…ab8abacked Yes | 7c | 29,107$2,086 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,085.79 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -84.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3a…49cfbacked Yes | 9c | 28,004$2,501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,501 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +105.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f5d…1810backed Yes | 10c | 15,544$1,541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,541.13 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe885…38efbacked Yes | 9c | 10,656$923 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$923.48 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -30%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd157…0b20backed Yes | 4c | 10,639$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd61e…c34fbacked Yes | 1c | 10,231$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 62 | 3.2%2 W · 60 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fe…ce76backed Yes | 6c | 8,370$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 177 | 40.7%72 W · 105 L | +13.9wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +36%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 3c | 7,311$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.39 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4579…34bfbacked Yes | 5c | 7,246$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca6…4825backed Yes | 7c | 7,217$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.97 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 8cpaid | +900%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ea…b02abacked Yes | 3c | 6,328$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.75 | 105 | 13.3%14 W · 91 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb75…446dbacked Yes | 8c | 6,145$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510.99 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 26cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 5,461$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.47 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x363e…92f8backed Yes | 19c | 5,340$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e7…bc03backed Yes | 2c | 5,306$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb38e…272bbacked Yes | 1c | 5,293$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.58 | 46 | 8.7%4 W · 42 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 4c | 5,274$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.11 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x54be…ca00backed Yes | 1c | 5,104$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.63 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 1c | 4,614$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 12c | 4,574$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.6 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4db7…3d43backed Yes | 4c | 4,508$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e6…8197backed Yes | 2c | 3,950$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 50 | 14%7 W · 43 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -42%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 3c | 3,531$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.47 | 124 | 5.6%7 W · 117 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6992…6c1dbacked Yes | 3c | 3,488$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.27 | 222 | 27%60 W · 162 L | +17.8wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 2c | 3,348$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.26 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4075…8fb8backed Yes | 6c | 3,291$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.95 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -63%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61ad…915dbacked Yes | 8c | 3,241$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee72…6bc1backed Yes | 6c | 3,167$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a1e…bd03backed Yes | 3c | 3,097$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.43 | 128 | 40.6%52 W · 76 L | +14.8wins | +0.12per pick | 29cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…5d99backed Yes | 0c | 3,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 127 | 44.9%57 W · 70 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +91.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x08ca…dc71backed Yes | 6c | 2,980$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x783b…dc4cbacked Yes | 18c | 2,880$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.6 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +100.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe074…10e2backed Yes | 18c | 2,854$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +139.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f12…1164backed Yes | 2c | 2,840$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.71 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa071…822dbacked Yes | 2c | 2,810$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc39f…136abacked Yes | 7c | 2,786$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8257…da02backed Yes | 3c | 2,780$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.12 | 107 | 42.1%45 W · 62 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b2…9a39backed Yes | 10c | 2,667$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes | 4c | 2,624$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.2 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb442…bed7backed Yes | 8c | 2,594$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes | 9c | 2,547$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.84 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x692e…ee58backed Yes | 3c | 2,535$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc41f…7145backed Yes | 20c | 2,516$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 1c | 2,500$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4e…4f43backed Yes | 4c | 2,452$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x696f…d8b9backed Yes | 2c | 2,354$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.67 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 1c | 2,350$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 6c | 2,314$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.21 | 71 | 42.3%30 W · 41 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf06…4799backed Yes | 14c | 2,238$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 41 | 12.2%5 W · 36 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +71.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x292a…e42fbacked Yes | 4c | 2,237$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.75 | 46 | 15.2%7 W · 39 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda00…64e3backed Yes | 13c | 2,193$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.04 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9c0…3e88backed Yes | 15c | 2,100$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -75%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22aa…0caebacked Yes | 8c | 2,050$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.26 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c09…e173backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e40…fc98backed Yes | 20c | 1,919$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.08 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 6c | 1,894$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.46 | 199 | 5%10 W · 189 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb8…c665backed Yes | 8c | 1,875$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 11cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8568…7ac8backed Yes | 7c | 1,875$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.08 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 28cpaid | -83.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1424…2c7fbacked Yes | 6c | 1,863$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.79 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad09…3c3fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,852$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc664…ffeabacked Yes | 5c | 1,829$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.14 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5d…e74dbacked Yes | 8c | 1,712$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.14 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…c4c2backed Yes | 3c | 1,700$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.76 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21c7…191abacked Yes | 7c | 1,700$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.9 | 75 | 20%15 W · 60 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked Yes | 5c | 1,700$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.34 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 38cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 8c | 1,694$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.1 | 120 | 23.3%28 W · 92 L | +10.9wins | +0.09per pick | 14cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes | 6c | 1,676$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 150 | 23.3%35 W · 115 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc64b…516dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,652$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.65 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c85…31d4backed Yes | 3c | 1,646$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.8 | 102 | 26.5%27 W · 75 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…2231backed Yes | 4c | 1,630$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.12 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x315f…85c6backed Yes | 4c | 1,624$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,602$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.01 | 169 | 3.6%6 W · 163 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab73…d8e6backed Yes | 5c | 1,584$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff05…0a63backed Yes | 8c | 1,584$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.16 | 104 | 28.8%30 W · 74 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes | 2c | 1,583$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.46 | 170 | 3.5%6 W · 164 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 1,547$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.41 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaec3…22dfbacked Yes | 3c | 1,522$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.15 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa8…5909backed Yes | 5c | 1,514$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.21 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27db…25f1backed Yes | 7c | 1,471$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0371…70c3backed Yes | 13c | 1,412$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.81 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 20cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e66…41e7backed Yes | 2c | 1,383$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.08 | 48 | 6.3%3 W · 45 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 2cpaid | +132.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f36…89cabacked Yes | 2c | 1,287$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.49 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | +8.4wins | +0.15per pick | 27cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8611…d28fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,279$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.66 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a70…a50bbacked Yes | 5c | 1,278$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.83 | 49 | 28.6%14 W · 35 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…e61ebacked Yes | 8c | 1,251$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -52%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0612…bf7bbacked Yes | 8c | 1,250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2fb…ff75backed Yes | 8c | 1,221$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd379…6d43backed Yes | 7c | 1,200$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.21 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +5.7wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0191…ebdbbacked Yes | 8c | 1,195$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.65 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | +201.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a6…afa6backed Yes | 9c | 1,183$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 6c | 1,174$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.2 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f7…da97backed Yes | 2c | 1,170$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Yes | 16c | 1,154$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.59 | 78 | 38.5%30 W · 48 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e8…b293backed Yes | 4c | 1,123$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc44a…8da6backed Yes | 12c | 1,121$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.9 | 71 | 23.9%17 W · 54 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 6c | 1,100$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc82c…1218backed Yes | 9c | 1,092$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd71…d70dbacked Yes | 9c | 1,081$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x285f…69e0backed Yes | 10c | 1,073$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e42…0dfebacked Yes | 2c | 1,060$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 165 | 7.3%12 W · 153 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by March 31, 2026?this page
- Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by April 30, 2026?No won
- Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026?No won
- Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by May 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.