Middle East · resolved market
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by May 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x791f879219f18977b17076657b4d9952c1961e525039019155563f6b6d85bd68
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $438,622
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $416,909
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $438,622 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x907d…20c4backed Yes | 0c | 105,038$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.09 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9449…d829backed Yes | 1c | 77,577$871 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$870.9 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…d6c6backed Yes | 1c | 49,950$558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$557.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f23…90dbbacked Yes | 6c | 13,790$791 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$790.9 | 31 | 12.9%4 W · 27 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0873…09e8backed Yes | 0c | 13,332$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x152f…a549backed Yes | 5c | 7,911$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 18cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e84…ef69backed Yes | 2c | 7,389$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.04 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a1e…bd03backed Yes | 3c | 6,196$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188 | 128 | 40.6%52 W · 76 L | +14.8wins | +0.12per pick | 29cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 0c | 3,682$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e59…b2bebacked Yes | 1c | 2,774$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +97.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 6c | 2,596$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.22 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2baa…647abacked Yes | 1c | 1,698$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 17cpaid | +148.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4004…c5debacked Yes | 2c | 1,275$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +353%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8794…fa1bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc44a…8da6backed Yes | 3c | 996.17$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 71 | 23.9%17 W · 54 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f36…89cabacked Yes | 5c | 963.57$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.39 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | +8.4wins | +0.15per pick | 27cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 3c | 961.18$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.52 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f30…a59ebacked Yes | 4c | 900$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3329…2f5cbacked Yes | 5c | 651.8$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 67 | 7.5%5 W · 62 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa3a…e29abacked Yes | 6c | 567.64$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 6c | 549.51$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.45 | 366 | 26.8%98 W · 268 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf6…2ecdbacked Yes | 6c | 516.03$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.85 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 6c | 508.47$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.31 | 197 | 6.6%13 W · 184 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 6c | 325.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 6c | 285.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 119 | 9.2%11 W · 108 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 4c | 254.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 120 | 23.3%28 W · 92 L | +10.9wins | +0.09per pick | 14cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x32c9…cd8dbacked Yes | 5c | 204.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ac…990dbacked Yes | 6c | 200.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 77c | 162.08$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.95 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 10c | 120$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 288 | 27.8%80 W · 208 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed No | 54c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 333 | 37.5%125 W · 208 L | +12.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by May 31, 2026?this page
- Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by April 30, 2026?No won
- Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026?No won
- Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by March 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.