TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by April 30, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$309,133
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$263,857

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $309,133 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 115 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2baa…647abacked Yes1c35,492$481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480.641926.3%5 W · 14 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick17cpaid+148.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4f23…90dbbacked Yes1c12,989$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.883112.9%4 W · 27 L-3.5wins-0.11per pick24cpaid-71.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes2c11,327$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.1642818.7%80 W · 348 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-28.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x66e8…0838backed Yes10c7,730$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8004124.4%10 W · 31 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-52.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes4c7,276$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.9148923.5%115 W · 374 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-46.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes3c7,073$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.2815234.2%52 W · 100 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-33.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e2d…a9b1backed Yes3c5,900$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.580%0 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes1c5,826$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.14769.9%47 W · 429 L+15.1wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+75.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e84…ef69backed Yes3c5,516$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.16026.7%16 W · 44 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick26cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes3c4,919$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.912217.2%16 W · 205 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a1e…bd03backed Yes6c4,916$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30512840.6%52 W · 76 L+14.8wins+0.12per pick29cpaid+67.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes3c3,700$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.6336626.8%98 W · 268 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes7c3,536$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.16230%0 W · 23 L-3.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x386b…4f0abacked Yes3c3,395$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.63616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick5cpaid-20.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe885…38efbacked Yes22c3,085$679 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$679.494839.6%19 W · 29 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-30%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2a8…8466backed Yes1c3,000$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243016.7%5 W · 25 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-52.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7fe…e61ebacked Yes10c2,926$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3002416.7%4 W · 20 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-52%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d7c…d3bdbacked Yes1c2,849$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.272425%6 W · 18 L+3.6wins+0.15per pick10cpaid+151.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed Yes4c2,749$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.113717%26 W · 345 L+10.6wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes4c2,666$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1017135.6%40 W · 673 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb0a…93c2backed Yes3c2,595$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.285030%15 W · 35 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick32cpaid+19.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes3c2,520$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.464625%23 W · 439 L+1.3wins0.00per pick5cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43e0…0eebbacked Yes3c2,170$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.3420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc44a…8da6backed Yes6c2,058$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1257123.9%17 W · 54 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e66…41e7backed Yes1c1,979$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.47486.3%3 W · 45 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick2cpaid+132.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f4c…14ddbacked Yes3c1,830$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.75100%0 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes2c1,687$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.884195.3%22 W · 397 L+1.4wins0.00per pick5cpaid-15.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3329…2f5cbacked Yes2c1,681$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36677.5%5 W · 62 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1bf6…2ecdbacked Yes3c1,600$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.663023.3%7 W · 23 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick21cpaid-11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x66a1…80d9backed Yes2c1,592$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.861976.6%13 W · 184 L-0.8wins0.00per pick7cpaid-27.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc3e…633cbacked Yes10c1,552$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.962222.7%5 W · 17 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-57.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x619b…7000backed Yes2c1,448$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.371010%1 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick10cpaid+47.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f36…89cabacked Yes2c1,389$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.65541.8%23 W · 32 L+8.4wins+0.15per pick27cpaid+27.5%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x67f8…d626backed Yes20c1,276$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.26119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick18cpaid-17.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbab5…15c5backed Yes8c1,237$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001030%3 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid-22.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa82c…620abacked Yes9c1,143$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes4c1,092$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.281,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c18…de25backed Yes3c1,071$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301811.1%2 W · 16 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-58.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6139…6b7abacked Yes2c1,000$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2321531.2%67 W · 148 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-34.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x74e6…99e8backed Yes3c983.55$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.8610041%41 W · 59 L+0.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid+30.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7577…8fb9backed Yes5c979.99$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a63…b4efbacked Yes2c893.76$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.326936.2%25 W · 44 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-27.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7257…fc40backed Yes12c893.17$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.612725.9%7 W · 20 L+3.0wins+0.11per pick15cpaid-1.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes5c864.65$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.582438.2%20 W · 223 L+0.4wins0.00per pick8cpaid-47.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe35f…f7f8backed Yes5c839.35$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.914037.5%15 W · 25 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-24.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbdf4…4ab1backed Yes11c838.09$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.811127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.14per pick41cpaid-55.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x55d0…f655backed Yes24c836.04$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20014036.4%51 W · 89 L+8.7wins+0.06per pick30cpaid-0.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3d04…680abacked Yes7c830$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.2720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd131…9422backed Yes3c807.59$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.4250%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes10c785.37$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.374136.8%28 W · 385 L-13.6wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-37.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3c09…e173backed Yes5c764.92$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.62035%7 W · 13 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick30cpaid-28.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe85c…ed6bbacked Yes2c763.43$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.48303.3%1 W · 29 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick2cpaid+51.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaec3…22dfbacked Yes10c750$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$755735.1%20 W · 37 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-31.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes6c722.21$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.671245.6%7 W · 117 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9724…fbc7backed Yes3c719.5$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.157610.5%8 W · 68 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa3a…e29abacked Yes3c701.97$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202711.1%3 W · 24 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick19cpaid-71.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x315f…85c6backed Yes4c682.46$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254010%4 W · 36 L-3.2wins-0.08per pick18cpaid-75.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x48ee…008cbacked Yes10c680.46$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7010023%23 W · 77 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-44.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd3de…f83bbacked Yes12c657.84$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82850%4 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd166…666ebacked Yes4c649.91$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.061127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick23cpaid-34%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf3f…d9c2backed Yes5c616.93$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.5710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2f7…da97backed Yes3c608.71$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.04714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick24cpaid-77.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7713…16f1backed Yes13c606.9$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.9520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad52…11acbacked Yes2c555$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3244224.4%108 W · 334 L+22.2wins+0.05per pick19cpaid+19.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes8c548.47$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.9549023.5%115 W · 375 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-21.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x292a…e42fbacked Yes7c514.56$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354615.2%7 W · 39 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick16cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No63c505.03$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.6958927.2%160 W · 429 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes3c500$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.61693.6%6 W · 163 L-0.8wins0.00per pick4cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a53…7a6fbacked Yes2c500$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1215943.4%69 W · 90 L+10.9wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+7.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcaab…24ddbacked Yes11c500$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$568834.1%30 W · 58 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac3e…3b0fbacked Yes15c496.98$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.672425%6 W · 18 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick26cpaid+89.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes11c488.31$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.8910913.8%15 W · 94 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-42.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdad6…b754backed Yes4c454.56$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.526746.3%31 W · 36 L+5.0wins+0.07per pick39cpaid-0.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x401e…6fc9backed Yes17c442.69$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.2619648%94 W · 102 L+7.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf84c…e106backed Yes7c428.57$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303116.1%5 W · 26 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick20cpaid-52.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6ed…7c98backed Yes12c421.77$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.973534.3%12 W · 23 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+27.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e0b…e6cdbacked Yes5c419.61$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick20cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d91…7a49backed Yes13c411.54$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.043231.3%10 W · 22 L-2.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid+2.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9422…cfeebacked Yes61c410.01$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2501136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick38cpaid+18.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f12…1164backed Yes3c400$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick35cpaid-19.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb442…bed7backed Yes7c357.14$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255549.1%27 W · 28 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-22.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x706d…1c5abacked Yes7c357.14$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25475%3 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.35per pick40cpaid+90.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x692e…ee58backed Yes14c345.37$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502825%7 W · 21 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-31.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x854e…92c9backed Yes15c332.06$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick15cpaid+38.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd43b…5913backed Yes15c327.65$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501952.6%10 W · 9 L+4.2wins+0.22per pick30cpaid+282.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes8c310$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.423103.9%12 W · 298 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-32.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a74…d69ebacked No80c300$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.91861.1%11 W · 7 L+1.9wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+106.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3829…3633backed Yes7c285.71$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203228.1%9 W · 23 L+3.3wins+0.10per pick18cpaid+226.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes13c278.27$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.2789617.1%153 W · 743 L-57.2wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdf6c…eb44backed Yes13c270$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.471942.1%8 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick50cpaid+102.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xee72…6bc1backed Yes12c243.83$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3051…c2a4backed Yes14c239.52$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.491250%6 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-27.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe154…14e8backed Yes20c235.7$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.055529.1%16 W · 39 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x769d…05bfbacked Yes16c215.8$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346753.7%36 W · 31 L+6.8wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+52.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5344…7dc1backed Yes13c206.68$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.72862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x53a8…4b54backed Yes24c204.12$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505621.4%12 W · 44 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-28.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed No37c185.5$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.134928.7%43 W · 449 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-25.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc442…8d9cbacked Yes14c176.7$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-60.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6b8a…7d26backed Yes13c156.05$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfb8…cf89backed Yes20c138.24$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.419348.4%45 W · 48 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.