Middle East · resolved market
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by April 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x12e3cc1640a58ee52e0ce2237c95ffefb7f543d65c0061043f23c803b215f099
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $309,133
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $263,857
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $309,133 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 115 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2baa…647abacked Yes | 1c | 35,492$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.64 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 17cpaid | +148.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f23…90dbbacked Yes | 1c | 12,989$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.88 | 31 | 12.9%4 W · 27 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 2c | 11,327$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.16 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66e8…0838backed Yes | 10c | 7,730$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 41 | 24.4%10 W · 31 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 4c | 7,276$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.91 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 3c | 7,073$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.28 | 152 | 34.2%52 W · 100 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2d…a9b1backed Yes | 3c | 5,900$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.5 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 1c | 5,826$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.1 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e84…ef69backed Yes | 3c | 5,516$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.1 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 3c | 4,919$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.91 | 221 | 7.2%16 W · 205 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a1e…bd03backed Yes | 6c | 4,916$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305 | 128 | 40.6%52 W · 76 L | +14.8wins | +0.12per pick | 29cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 3c | 3,700$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.63 | 366 | 26.8%98 W · 268 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 7c | 3,536$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.16 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x386b…4f0abacked Yes | 3c | 3,395$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.63 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 5cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe885…38efbacked Yes | 22c | 3,085$679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$679.49 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -30%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2a8…8466backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…e61ebacked Yes | 10c | 2,926$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -52%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d7c…d3bdbacked Yes | 1c | 2,849$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.27 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +3.6wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | +151.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 4c | 2,749$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.11 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 2,666$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0a…93c2backed Yes | 3c | 2,595$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.28 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 3c | 2,520$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.46 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43e0…0eebbacked Yes | 3c | 2,170$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc44a…8da6backed Yes | 6c | 2,058$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 71 | 23.9%17 W · 54 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e66…41e7backed Yes | 1c | 1,979$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.47 | 48 | 6.3%3 W · 45 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 2cpaid | +132.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f4c…14ddbacked Yes | 3c | 1,830$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.75 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 2c | 1,687$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.88 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3329…2f5cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,681$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 67 | 7.5%5 W · 62 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf6…2ecdbacked Yes | 3c | 1,600$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.66 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 2c | 1,592$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.86 | 197 | 6.6%13 W · 184 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3e…633cbacked Yes | 10c | 1,552$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.96 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x619b…7000backed Yes | 2c | 1,448$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.37 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f36…89cabacked Yes | 2c | 1,389$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | +8.4wins | +0.15per pick | 27cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x67f8…d626backed Yes | 20c | 1,276$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.26 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 18cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbab5…15c5backed Yes | 8c | 1,237$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa82c…620abacked Yes | 9c | 1,143$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 1,092$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.28 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c18…de25backed Yes | 3c | 1,071$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 215 | 31.2%67 W · 148 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74e6…99e8backed Yes | 3c | 983.55$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.86 | 100 | 41%41 W · 59 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7577…8fb9backed Yes | 5c | 979.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a63…b4efbacked Yes | 2c | 893.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7257…fc40backed Yes | 12c | 893.17$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.61 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 15cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 5c | 864.65$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.58 | 243 | 8.2%20 W · 223 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe35f…f7f8backed Yes | 5c | 839.35$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.91 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf4…4ab1backed Yes | 11c | 838.09$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.81 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed Yes | 24c | 836.04$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 140 | 36.4%51 W · 89 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d04…680abacked Yes | 7c | 830$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd131…9422backed Yes | 3c | 807.59$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.42 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 10c | 785.37$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.37 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c09…e173backed Yes | 5c | 764.92$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe85c…ed6bbacked Yes | 2c | 763.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 30 | 3.3%1 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaec3…22dfbacked Yes | 10c | 750$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 6c | 722.21$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.67 | 124 | 5.6%7 W · 117 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9724…fbc7backed Yes | 3c | 719.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 76 | 10.5%8 W · 68 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa3a…e29abacked Yes | 3c | 701.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x315f…85c6backed Yes | 4c | 682.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x48ee…008cbacked Yes | 10c | 680.46$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 100 | 23%23 W · 77 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3de…f83bbacked Yes | 12c | 657.84$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd166…666ebacked Yes | 4c | 649.91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.06 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -34%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3f…d9c2backed Yes | 5c | 616.93$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f7…da97backed Yes | 3c | 608.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7713…16f1backed Yes | 13c | 606.9$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 2c | 555$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 8c | 548.47$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.95 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x292a…e42fbacked Yes | 7c | 514.56$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 46 | 15.2%7 W · 39 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 63c | 505.03$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.69 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes | 3c | 500$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 169 | 3.6%6 W · 163 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a53…7a6fbacked Yes | 2c | 500$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 159 | 43.4%69 W · 90 L | +10.9wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcaab…24ddbacked Yes | 11c | 500$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 88 | 34.1%30 W · 58 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac3e…3b0fbacked Yes | 15c | 496.98$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.67 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +89.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 11c | 488.31$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.89 | 109 | 13.8%15 W · 94 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…b754backed Yes | 4c | 454.56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed Yes | 17c | 442.69$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.26 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf84c…e106backed Yes | 7c | 428.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ed…7c98backed Yes | 12c | 421.77$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.97 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e0b…e6cdbacked Yes | 5c | 419.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d91…7a49backed Yes | 13c | 411.54$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.04 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…cfeebacked Yes | 61c | 410.01$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f12…1164backed Yes | 3c | 400$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb442…bed7backed Yes | 7c | 357.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x706d…1c5abacked Yes | 7c | 357.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 40cpaid | +90.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x692e…ee58backed Yes | 14c | 345.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x854e…92c9backed Yes | 15c | 332.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 15cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd43b…5913backed Yes | 15c | 327.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +4.2wins | +0.22per pick | 30cpaid | +282.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 8c | 310$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.42 | 310 | 3.9%12 W · 298 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a74…d69ebacked No | 80c | 300$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.9 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +106.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3829…3633backed Yes | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | +3.3wins | +0.10per pick | 18cpaid | +226.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 13c | 278.27$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.27 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6c…eb44backed Yes | 13c | 270$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.47 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +102.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee72…6bc1backed Yes | 12c | 243.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3051…c2a4backed Yes | 14c | 239.52$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.49 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…14e8backed Yes | 20c | 235.7$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.05 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x769d…05bfbacked Yes | 16c | 215.8$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +6.8wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5344…7dc1backed Yes | 13c | 206.68$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.72 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53a8…4b54backed Yes | 24c | 204.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 56 | 21.4%12 W · 44 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 37c | 185.5$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.13 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc442…8d9cbacked Yes | 14c | 176.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b8a…7d26backed Yes | 13c | 156.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb8…cf89backed Yes | 20c | 138.24$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.41 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by April 30, 2026?this page
- Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026?No won
- Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by March 31, 2026?No won
- Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by May 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.