Middle East · resolved market
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc41436a8fdcf3e8adff61fcf0b4688e0652e718f401111b3090c0ce5e45a5ffc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $796,788
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $717,779
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $796,788 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9449…d829backed Yes | 2c | 281,653$5,411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,410.73 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6a…e86dbacked Yes | 2c | 44,126$801 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800.96 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +3.3wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +46%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x93a9…0b88backed Yes | 1c | 23,485$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.65 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 2c | 12,124$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.37 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 1c | 12,100$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.1 | 310 | 3.9%12 W · 298 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d3…33bcbacked Yes | 2c | 10,701$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e52…00f5backed Yes | 2c | 10,000$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.81 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a1e…bd03backed Yes | 2c | 7,833$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.03 | 128 | 40.6%52 W · 76 L | +14.8wins | +0.12per pick | 29cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 0c | 7,246$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.44 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 6,817$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.64 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x371c…c236backed Yes | 3c | 3,886$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.36 | 135 | 32.6%44 W · 91 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed Yes | 1c | 3,333$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 333 | 37.5%125 W · 208 L | +12.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec0e…1e4ebacked Yes | 1c | 3,000$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f36…89cabacked Yes | 5c | 2,439$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.52 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | +8.4wins | +0.15per pick | 27cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4e84…ef69backed Yes | 8c | 2,354$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.57 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb19c…2467backed Yes | 1c | 2,352$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 2,076$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.93 | 228 | 2.6%6 W · 222 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2d…a9b1backed Yes | 5c | 1,808$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.17 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac1…0e83backed Yes | 10c | 1,572$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.24per pick | 10cpaid | +391%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f4c…14ddbacked Yes | 14c | 1,451$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12df…6a3dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,385$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c6…d759backed Yes | 3c | 1,385$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.7 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c18…a04cbacked Yes | 4c | 1,138$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 53 | 15.1%8 W · 45 L | -5.5wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef7…01f5backed Yes | 9c | 1,120$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac8f…feddbacked Yes | 2c | 1,055$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 210 | 34.3%72 W · 138 L | +9.3wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 7c | 1,054$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.2 | 124 | 32.3%40 W · 84 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe128…ccb4backed Yes | 2c | 1,036$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb8…48f6backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e66…41e7backed Yes | 2c | 933.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 48 | 6.3%3 W · 45 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 2cpaid | +132.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3925…d2f2backed Yes | 2c | 907.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | +134.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…3eb5backed Yes | 2c | 845.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 226 | 27.9%63 W · 163 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe85c…ed6bbacked Yes | 2c | 824.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 30 | 3.3%1 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 6c | 752.11$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.14 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc9…525ebacked Yes | 2c | 731$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | +6.1wins | +0.14per pick | 17cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked Yes | 8c | 718.32$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.47 | 215 | 31.2%67 W · 148 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 7c | 555$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.28 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3329…2f5cbacked Yes | 8c | 527.72$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 67 | 7.5%5 W · 62 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fda…7453backed Yes | 3c | 402.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 25cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb8d…aa15backed Yes | 6c | 399.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75c0…dfd2backed Yes | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 17cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…fa0bbacked Yes | 9c | 288.61$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.97 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e0b…e6cdbacked Yes | 9c | 277.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 7c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 197 | 6.6%13 W · 184 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 8c | 190.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a63…b4efbacked Yes | 7c | 176.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked No | 65c | 170.35$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.3 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27b7…0704backed No | 77c | 159.97$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.83 | 66 | 62.1%41 W · 25 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e4b…07fcbacked Yes | 10c | 147$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +54%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf504…b97bbacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 48c | 120.11$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.46 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 15c | 118.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 360 | 35.3%127 W · 233 L | -30.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 32c | 112$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.28 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 366 | 26.8%98 W · 268 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5864…76b9backed Yes | 13c | 80$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5e…868fbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2891…fa1dbacked No | 67c | 37.66$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.43 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +141.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026?this page
- Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by April 30, 2026?No won
- Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by March 31, 2026?No won
- Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by May 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.