Token Launches · resolved market
o1 FDV above $400M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfb9a43b24982147467eabb56395807fa3c4e497a20d03867f6b5eb023abed8aa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,398
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,346
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,398 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x78c5…f623backed No | 1c | 2,008$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 2c | 1,200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 154 | 1.9%3 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57f9…bcd9backed Yes | 19c | 1,038$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$842.01 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d78…ffa6backed Yes | 29c | 1,017$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$722.44 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 19cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1635…5624backed No | 71c | 1,000$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$710 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 14c | 854.98$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.78 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764f…64a1backed No | 76c | 754.32$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$571.51 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 74cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x733b…0268backed Yes | 9c | 730.74$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$662.96 | 84 | 40.5%34 W · 50 L | +9.4wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +38%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3e16…5026backed Yes | 57c | 727.05$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.02 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 3c | 552.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 206 | 1.9%4 W · 202 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 11c | 300$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 13c | 235.93$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 193 | 36.3%70 W · 123 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85b5…6cc3backed No | 4c | 230$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb19…e7a3backed No | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe267…86e4backed No | 48c | 199.99$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d2…7048backed Yes | 75c | 182.68$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.67 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -62%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6539…f6cdbacked Yes | 53c | 160.98$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.55 | 99 | 20.2%20 W · 79 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x975d…01bebacked Yes | 9c | 150.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.84 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +220.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 59c | 129.03$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.45 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1b…efb5backed Yes | 46c | 103.56$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.62 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | +11.4wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb2…94dcbacked Yes | 75c | 88$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.57 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 42cpaid | +77.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 39c | 52.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 111 | 7.2%8 W · 103 L | -12.9wins | -0.12per pick | 19cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 27c | 50.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -48%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5739…b180backed No | 74c | 27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- o1 FDV above $400M one day after launch?this page
- o1 FDV above $100M one day after launch?Yes won
- o1 FDV above $1B one day after launch?No won
- o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch?Yes won
- o1 FDV above $300M one day after launch?Yes won
- o1 FDV above $500M one day after launch?Yes won
- o1 FDV above $700M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.