TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

Superform FDV above $50M one day after launch?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$141,183
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$145,484

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $141,183 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 228 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xba3c…2e4ebacked No63c9,402$5,888 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,513.282356.5%13 W · 10 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick49cpaid-6.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbbca…9863backed Yes23c7,888$1,817 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,816.941850%9 W · 9 L+1.9wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+7.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x60d1…0c8fbacked No55c7,276$4,007 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,268.6415539.4%61 W · 94 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f5c…bb60backed No69c5,127$3,538 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,589.282250%11 W · 11 L+3.7wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+148.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c4,546$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.777663.3%25 W · 741 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-75.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd45…3dd4backed Yes29c4,039$1,185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,185.073630.6%11 W · 25 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+83.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2aa1…c691backed Yes45c4,000$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,8004050%20 W · 20 L+4.9wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+37.1%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xc903…b175backed Yes39c3,133$1,214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,214.193857.9%22 W · 16 L+5.3wins+0.14per pick44cpaid+46.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No57c2,800$1,605 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,194.2616740.7%68 W · 99 L-10.7wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-37.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7903…e8a1backed No78c2,361$1,851 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$509.971040%4 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.19per pick59cpaid-45.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf1b2…a321backed No44c2,288$998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,289.961741.2%7 W · 10 L+2.1wins+0.12per pick29cpaid-2.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe60e…3f04backed Yes35c2,134$747 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7471540%6 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+10%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x056c…5066backed Yes1c2,052$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143125.8%8 W · 23 L-2.6wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-49.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x42c4…93a7backed Yes5c2,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006127.9%17 W · 44 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-12.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x716d…4206backed No66c2,000$1,310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$689.981080%8 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.18per pick62cpaid+30.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8a97…593dbacked Yes48c1,920$929 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$929.258728.7%25 W · 62 L-14.9wins-0.17per pick46cpaid-55.1%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xe730…e424backed No41c1,797$737 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,060.446934.8%24 W · 45 L+4.4wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe267…86e4backed No51c1,766$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$865.945149%25 W · 26 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6817…f496backed No61c1,643$1,004 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$639.313946.2%18 W · 21 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-12.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c83…6387backed Yes44c1,376$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600.4120%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa75c…8ddbbacked Yes38c1,304$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$495.01825%2 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-43.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6911…947cbacked Yes8c1,289$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003834.2%13 W · 25 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-18.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcdbe…d65dbacked No66c1,282$846 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$435.832825%7 W · 21 L-2.5wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-40%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6b5f…1d83backed Yes33c1,176$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$386.973619.4%7 W · 29 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-20.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2805…2a1bbacked Yes49c1,008$494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$493.681020%2 W · 8 L-3.1wins-0.31per pick51cpaid-68%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x189e…64c3backed Yes38c1,005$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$378.043318.2%6 W · 27 L-3.0wins-0.09per pick27cpaid-39.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8e8c…6657backed Yes34c1,000$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.479352.7%49 W · 44 L+9.5wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+29.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3bcf…dc5cbacked Yes4c1,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406836.8%25 W · 43 L+4.6wins+0.07per pick30cpaid-3.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9c42…deb7backed Yes30c964.87$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.32429.2%7 W · 17 L-0.1wins0.00per pick29cpaid-22.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes28c946.07$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.8835712.9%46 W · 311 L-29.9wins-0.08per pick21cpaid-55.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x598e…6640backed Yes54c925.7$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.25per pick40cpaid-79.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x981d…ed7fbacked No51c895.85$457 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$438.978744.8%39 W · 48 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+0.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc0f0…8a28backed No68c886.05$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$286.052552%13 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-21.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8fda…3fd7backed Yes39c860.54$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336.610047%47 W · 53 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-11.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x571a…3315backed No75c817.84$611 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.592157.1%12 W · 9 L+2.5wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+22.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x21e7…6757backed No56c706.81$394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313.082326.1%6 W · 17 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-46.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc8e4…b626backed Yes34c701.4$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.51030%3 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-57.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x61d7…01f0backed Yes56c699.99$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3922138.1%8 W · 13 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-19%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6bfb…dcdcbacked Yes19c693.45$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.01616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick28cpaid-77.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5502…d440backed Yes36c689$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.031241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.14per pick56cpaid-41.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xff5b…9476backed Yes66c678.26$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd56…78cabacked No60c650.76$393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.85850%4 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No66c642.22$422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.328344.6%37 W · 46 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-7.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf44…214ebacked No72c616.01$441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.42366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick56cpaid-4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No66c603.2$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.3911145.9%51 W · 60 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-19%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc694…1171backed Yes20c600$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1187123.9%17 W · 54 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+17.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x08ea…0751backed Yes36c600$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2143324.2%8 W · 25 L-4.6wins-0.14per pick38cpaid-45.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3d35…23c1backed Yes27c599.99$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1624037.5%15 W · 25 L-3.4wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-22.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes5c599.49$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.573283%10 W · 318 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-45.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0141…c2dabacked No51c533.06$274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.062030%6 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-33.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a84…c26fbacked No50c524.84$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.422528%7 W · 18 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-24.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe33b…6de8backed Yes16c523.96$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.48714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.16per pick31cpaid-65.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf9a6…2833backed Yes36c494.34$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick41cpaid-60.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21f1…2593backed No65c487.95$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.57250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-23.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a79…d6cebacked No65c481.59$313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.76933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick27cpaid-29.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b7e…8fa1backed No73c477.2$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3eae…7cecbacked No77c466.69$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.69966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4b9b…7e7cbacked No68c444$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.464763.8%30 W · 17 L+10.3wins+0.22per pick42cpaid+48.7%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x4e53…6ba9backed Yes29c432.44$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.87745.5%35 W · 42 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-20.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2d1…62c2backed No68c430.12$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1388558.8%50 W · 35 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-14%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf90d…db1fbacked Yes33c428.5$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.83771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.15per pick57cpaid+17.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x11e9…4136backed No66c408.63$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.558630.2%26 W · 60 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-19.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes16c405.56$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.3425422%56 W · 198 L-9.0wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-34.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c76…06acbacked Yes60c400$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24120%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad4e…12f1backed No58c400$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1681100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b6c…70a8backed Yes25c400$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100238.7%2 W · 21 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-69.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x561e…2093backed No57c400$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1723234.4%11 W · 21 L+3.2wins+0.10per pick24cpaid+29%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7371…cadebacked No57c400$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1725457.4%31 W · 23 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid0%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x14b0…8d0ebacked Yes47c379.31$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.9314141.8%59 W · 82 L+8.8wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+6.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa793…1776backed No71c371.51$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.881735.3%6 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-24.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc67e…b892backed Yes41c370.27$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1522240.9%9 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-30.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0e8…904cbacked No62c357.53$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.538744.8%39 W · 48 L+4.8wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-1.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2764…1280backed No44c336.48$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.531216.7%2 W · 10 L-2.9wins-0.24per pick41cpaid-70%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9c4e…1f10backed No76c327.71$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.71650%3 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-25.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe384…0861backed No47c318.66$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.841241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-22.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1a0…dffebacked No64c300$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1081338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-46.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7205…ffd4backed Yes34c300$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1027431.1%23 W · 51 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-21.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x40e6…b3fdbacked Yes36c300$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1083259.4%19 W · 13 L+4.9wins+0.15per pick44cpaid+24.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5c6f…f5c1backed No68c290$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.41861.1%11 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick63cpaid-11.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes22c285.7$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.043495.7%20 W · 329 L-25.3wins-0.07per pick13cpaid-66.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes14c285.66$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.932094.3%9 W · 200 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick8cpaid-73.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf2b…b581backed Yes37c266.53$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.2930%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f10…777abacked Yes38c264.36$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-23.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5742…5e12backed Yes42c263.09$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.751435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick39cpaid+3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd059…448ebacked Yes34c259.89$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8850%0 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbfed…e820backed Yes39c257.98$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick58cpaid-56.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x185f…3649backed Yes5c254.54$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143318.2%6 W · 27 L-2.9wins-0.09per pick27cpaid-67.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa520…dbc6backed No75c250.24$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.76520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.30per pick50cpaid-73.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x981f…8993backed No59c249.32$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.792236.4%8 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-9.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x91fd…5db1backed Yes26c249.01$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.49250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77e4…d18fbacked Yes6c240$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.45736.8%21 W · 36 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+26.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x179e…a4b1backed Yes30c200.3$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbaac…ff10backed No68c200$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64966.7%6 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xacf0…9dd6backed Yes30c200$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601747.1%8 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+20.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c4c…a5f0backed No57c200$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$869142.9%39 W · 52 L+4.9wins+0.05per pick37cpaid-2.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd297…2919backed No66c200$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$689550.5%48 W · 47 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes6c200$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121243.2%4 W · 120 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-61.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d96…0c7fbacked No66c200$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$681100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf02f…2b0abacked Yes33c200$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$662650%13 W · 13 L+3.9wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+32.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb6a4…51dabacked Yes29c200$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.15per pick40cpaid+19.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.