Token Launches · resolved market
Superform FDV above $100M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd264b6cd7ec137ebdd5ac098029df4f9d3ea84abe1b5c2e709118de7b8a18bae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $99,958
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $85,083
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $99,958 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1bc3…8548backed Yes | 5c | 5,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6c…70a8backed Yes | 4c | 4,877$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…de6bbacked Yes | 7c | 4,423$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 4,330$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.46 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 1c | 3,473$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 142 | 4.2%6 W · 136 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e9…63d0backed No | 80c | 3,384$2,707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$677.73 | 178 | 59.6%106 W · 72 L | +18.3wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +21%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbd45…3dd4backed Yes | 8c | 3,341$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.3 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +83.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e4…b626backed Yes | 4c | 3,090$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.35 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa1…c691backed Yes | 21c | 2,999$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$629.76 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +4.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5c83…6387backed Yes | 7c | 2,857$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2805…2a1bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,600$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.1wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -68%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8a97…593dbacked Yes | 6c | 2,023$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.58 | 87 | 28.7%25 W · 62 L | -14.9wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…dd99backed Yes | 10c | 1,920$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.1 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9150…26f4backed Yes | 1c | 1,797$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a6…2833backed Yes | 8c | 1,758$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 1,500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.2 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15c3…24a2backed Yes | 7c | 1,439$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.75 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x598e…6640backed Yes | 9c | 1,120$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.25per pick | 40cpaid | -79.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x571a…3315backed Yes | 9c | 1,111$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…64c3backed Yes | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 3c | 879.7$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 123 | 4.1%5 W · 118 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 5c | 854.87$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.31 | 254 | 22%56 W · 198 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 4c | 800$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 134 | 3.7%5 W · 129 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 4c | 735.73$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.07 | 209 | 4.3%9 W · 200 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 3c | 700$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 124 | 3.2%4 W · 120 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf2b…b581backed Yes | 5c | 700$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7205…ffd4backed Yes | 11c | 700$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 74 | 31.1%23 W · 51 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c42…deb7backed Yes | 9c | 673.82$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.12 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b9…74d8backed No | 75c | 670$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.5 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e53…6ba9backed Yes | 6c | 667$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.02 | 77 | 45.5%35 W · 42 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 3c | 662.18$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.15 | 166 | 2.4%4 W · 162 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5a…d56ebacked Yes | 25c | 657$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.25 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 3c | 600$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 244 | 2%5 W · 239 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11e9…4136backed Yes | 21c | 544.25$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.98 | 86 | 30.2%26 W · 60 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b5f…1d83backed Yes | 10c | 526.41$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.12 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e37…cccbbacked Yes | 6c | 521.06$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.26 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…06acbacked Yes | 8c | 500$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5f…8a41backed Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa135…68b8backed Yes | 16c | 476.54$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.28 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c6…9508backed Yes | 11c | 444.04$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.73 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62ca…ee4bbacked Yes | 17c | 429.87$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.87 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +135%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x296d…70f9backed No | 52c | 423.06$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.07 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x55ca…3397backed Yes | 9c | 400$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedaa…5786backed Yes | 7c | 350$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 7c | 344.15$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.56 | 349 | 5.7%20 W · 329 L | -25.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab3…07bcbacked Yes | 7c | 280.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 55 | 3.6%2 W · 53 L | -7.0wins | -0.13per pick | 16cpaid | -83.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x40e6…b3fdbacked Yes | 7c | 274.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +4.9wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x642d…3de0backed No | 78c | 257.72$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.65 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc731…416fbacked Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x437e…1555backed Yes | 12c | 243.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbfb…3979backed No | 77c | 228.55$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.55 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 8c | 216.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 357 | 12.9%46 W · 311 L | -29.9wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc4…b15dbacked Yes | 14c | 214.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x446c…d61fbacked No | 78c | 213.18$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc101…e6d1backed Yes | 6c | 199.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 181 | 44.8%81 W · 100 L | +23.4wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4105…928ebacked Yes | 48c | 194.95$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.94 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 15c | 193.3$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.22 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 13cpaid | +190.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6b…c4f4backed Yes | 10c | 140$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd059…448ebacked Yes | 7c | 139.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b34…be64backed No | 76c | 132.37$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.37 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +13%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c5c…eaf0backed Yes | 8c | 132.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 18c | 129.92$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.16 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 17cpaid | -91.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe384…0861backed No | 78c | 107.04$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.55 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90b4…4f99backed Yes | 14c | 107$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x093f…07b4backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 23cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 463 | 20.5%95 W · 368 L | -68.1wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x81b4…d205backed Yes | 18c | 82.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.29per pick | 40cpaid | -83%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ab…5635backed Yes | 17c | 66.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked Yes | 29c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 141 | 41.8%59 W · 82 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8986…b357backed No | 79c | 55.07$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7781…ea23backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x726b…3d01backed No | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 78c | 19.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 111 | 45.9%51 W · 60 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Superform FDV above $100M one day after launch?this page
- Superform FDV above $200M one day after launch?No won
- Superform FDV above $20M one day after launch?Yes won
- Superform FDV above $400M one day after launch?No won
- Superform FDV above $50M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.