Token Launches · resolved market
Superform FDV above $20M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7b613ffea258edfa93b79af6983398d6d8c15c51a77d89a585af794a92374aa3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $189,522
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $164,137
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $189,522 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x60d1…0c8fbacked No | 13c | 15,463$1,994 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,994.13 | 155 | 39.4%61 W · 94 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9702…1042backed No | 4c | 12,061$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbe…d65dbacked No | 7c | 10,800$768 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$767.8 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -40%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9337…8546backed No | 0c | 10,100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe79c…c715backed No | 14c | 8,915$1,276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,275.88 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba3c…2e4ebacked No | 8c | 5,240$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.99 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d85…e6f6backed No | 14c | 5,000$703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$703.06 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbba8…f383backed No | 0c | 4,470$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc3…8548backed No | 16c | 4,060$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$649.52 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee1…16debacked No | 18c | 4,051$749 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$748.51 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6817…f496backed No | 13c | 3,686$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.86 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 7c | 2,431$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.07 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 17cpaid | -91.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6539…f6cdbacked No | 2c | 2,222$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.36 | 99 | 20.2%20 W · 79 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe730…e424backed No | 7c | 2,000$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.14 | 69 | 34.8%24 W · 45 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 4c | 1,996$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.49 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 8c | 1,845$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.77 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…1f7bbacked No | 17c | 1,520$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x561e…2093backed No | 2c | 1,444$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.32 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +29%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…21b0backed No | 7c | 1,427$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.88 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | +8.0wins | +0.17per pick | 27cpaid | +64.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe384…0861backed No | 2c | 1,381$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6911…947cbacked No | 13c | 1,314$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed No | 5c | 1,108$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.86 | 134 | 3.7%5 W · 129 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed No | 4c | 1,105$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.74 | 123 | 4.1%5 W · 118 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacc3…6682backed No | 10c | 1,014$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.14 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.25per pick | 30cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e27…c659backed No | 20c | 1,005$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 61 | 14.8%9 W · 52 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5699…418dbacked No | 3c | 1,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0141…c2dabacked No | 6c | 931.88$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd75…c70dbacked No | 12c | 920.14$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.76 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x571a…3315backed No | 12c | 909$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.94 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 6c | 878.89$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.45 | 254 | 22%56 W · 198 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked No | 5c | 800$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.1 | 124 | 3.2%4 W · 120 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ff2…90e4backed No | 15c | 799.99$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.35 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x772b…b16dbacked No | 12c | 799.98$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 69 | 27.5%19 W · 50 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 5c | 799.97$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.1 | 244 | 2%5 W · 239 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 7c | 791.77$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.19 | 209 | 4.3%9 W · 200 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x151d…4497backed No | 15c | 737.39$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.81 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a0…dffebacked No | 13c | 700$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.1 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a79…d6cebacked No | 14c | 700$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.1 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e8…904cbacked No | 7c | 660.57$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.32 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5d…9ea3backed No | 8c | 621.51$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.57 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked No | 5c | 506.01$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.33 | 99 | 14.1%14 W · 85 L | -8.1wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked No | 2c | 500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 92 | 28.3%26 W · 66 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93b7…7d51backed No | 7c | 500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 205 | 51.2%105 W · 100 L | +13.3wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c88…4c64backed No | 10c | 489.96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +95.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9b…7e7cbacked No | 11c | 473.75$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.87 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +10.3wins | +0.22per pick | 42cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 11c | 470.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.75 | 357 | 12.9%46 W · 311 L | -29.9wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaec3…22dfbacked No | 27c | 432.83$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.92 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -6.3wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 11c | 418.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.94 | 349 | 5.7%20 W · 329 L | -25.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…4f44backed No | 3c | 411.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 51 | 0%0 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab3…07bcbacked No | 11c | 395.36$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.15 | 55 | 3.6%2 W · 53 L | -7.0wins | -0.13per pick | 16cpaid | -83.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e2…06fbbacked Yes | 78c | 385.71$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.71 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73b6…5db1backed No | 12c | 385.27$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.65 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed No | 3c | 369$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 166 | 2.4%4 W · 162 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x981d…ed7fbacked No | 15c | 302.17$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.49 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a6…588ebacked No | 17c | 300$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.1 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8262…eddebacked No | 24c | 299.99$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 143 | 35.7%51 W · 92 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b23…4528backed No | 10c | 299.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 46 | 60.9%28 W · 18 L | +5.9wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf91f…a82bbacked No | 10c | 294.85$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.69 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -77%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa800…bd7abacked Yes | 76c | 292.18$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.18 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec15…1233backed No | 9c | 290.66$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.68 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ac…fc08backed No | 19c | 260.73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2764…1280backed No | 5c | 253.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.24per pick | 41cpaid | -70%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed No | 5c | 251.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 142 | 4.2%6 W · 136 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe89d…151dbacked No | 10c | 250.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…03c5backed Yes | 69c | 240.39$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.52 | 76 | 57.9%44 W · 32 L | +8.9wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1c08…1ff6backed No | 9c | 220$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -74%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f8…2097backed No | 10c | 204.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21f1…2593backed No | 14c | 202.7$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13af…3715backed No | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03f9…1f57backed Yes | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf56e…00d6backed No | 10c | 196.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x058c…cbc2backed No | 12c | 175.6$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.95 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0f…cb38backed No | 20c | 172.03$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 8c | 171.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 179 | 48%86 W · 93 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a0d…0d74backed No | 12c | 169.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd18d…e7b4backed No | 16c | 156.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -23%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 12c | 155.51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 463 | 20.5%95 W · 368 L | -68.1wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x62ca…ee4bbacked No | 15c | 140$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.14 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +135%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0feb…9876backed Yes | 80c | 125.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.31 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfb46…5d1bbacked No | 17c | 117.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4c…a5f0backed No | 9c | 109.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 91 | 42.9%39 W · 52 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3961…4ab2backed Yes | 80c | 107.56$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…14f1backed No | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -4.8wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8c25…8d52backed No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8751…fe10backed No | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdbf…c569backed No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14f7…4ef7backed Yes | 79c | 73.1$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.21 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa24b…b6f4backed No | 34c | 67.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89ee…b08fbacked No | 17c | 62.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02b4…3908backed No | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +3.4wins | +0.48per pick | 38cpaid | +196.7%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8aac…309abacked Yes | 78c | 25.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbad6…9963backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Superform FDV above $20M one day after launch?this page
- Superform FDV above $100M one day after launch?No won
- Superform FDV above $200M one day after launch?No won
- Superform FDV above $400M one day after launch?No won
- Superform FDV above $50M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.