TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

Superform FDV above $20M one day after launch?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$189,522
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$164,137

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $189,522 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x60d1…0c8fbacked No13c15,463$1,994 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,994.1315539.4%61 W · 94 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9702…1042backed No4c12,061$505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505.38333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-48.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcdbe…d65dbacked No7c10,800$768 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$767.82825%7 W · 21 L-2.5wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-40%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9337…8546backed No0c10,100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.21844.4%8 W · 10 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+10.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe79c…c715backed No14c8,915$1,276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,275.884131.7%13 W · 28 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick25cpaid+15.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xba3c…2e4ebacked No8c5,240$444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$443.992356.5%13 W · 10 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick49cpaid-6.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0d85…e6f6backed No14c5,000$703 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$703.061553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+40.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbba8…f383backed No0c4,470$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.31421.4%3 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-70.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1bc3…8548backed No16c4,060$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$649.523330.3%10 W · 23 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick27cpaid-19.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ee1…16debacked No18c4,051$749 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$748.513745.9%17 W · 20 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+42.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6817…f496backed No13c3,686$467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$466.863946.2%18 W · 21 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-12.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked No7c2,431$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.07195.3%1 W · 18 L-2.2wins-0.11per pick17cpaid-91.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6539…f6cdbacked No2c2,222$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.369920.2%20 W · 79 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-46.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe730…e424backed No7c2,000$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.146934.8%24 W · 45 L+4.4wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No4c1,996$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.493283%10 W · 318 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-45.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No8c1,845$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.777663.3%25 W · 741 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-75.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9aa8…1f7bbacked No17c1,520$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2543727%10 W · 27 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick23cpaid-10.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x561e…2093backed No2c1,444$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.323234.4%11 W · 21 L+3.2wins+0.10per pick24cpaid+29%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc135…21b0backed No7c1,427$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.884843.8%21 W · 27 L+8.0wins+0.17per pick27cpaid+64.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xe384…0861backed No2c1,381$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.41241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-22.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6911…947cbacked No13c1,314$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1753834.2%13 W · 25 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-18.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed No5c1,108$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.861343.7%5 W · 129 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-52.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5081…a309backed No4c1,105$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.741234.1%5 W · 118 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-50%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xacc3…6682backed No10c1,014$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.14955.6%5 W · 4 L+2.3wins+0.25per pick30cpaid+61.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x3e27…c659backed No20c1,005$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2006114.8%9 W · 52 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-21.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5699…418dbacked No3c1,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251050%5 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0141…c2dabacked No6c931.88$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$532030%6 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-33.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd75…c70dbacked No12c920.14$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.761136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-44.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x571a…3315backed No12c909$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.942157.1%12 W · 9 L+2.5wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+22.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No6c878.89$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.4525422%56 W · 198 L-9.0wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-34.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfbf2…887dbacked No5c800$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.11243.2%4 W · 120 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-61.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ff2…90e4backed No15c799.99$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.352330.4%7 W · 16 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick24cpaid-0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x772b…b16dbacked No12c799.98$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$966927.5%19 W · 50 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked No5c799.97$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.12442%5 W · 239 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-56.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked No7c791.77$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.192094.3%9 W · 200 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick8cpaid-73.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x151d…4497backed No15c737.39$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.815347.2%25 W · 28 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa1a0…dffebacked No13c700$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.11338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-46.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a79…d6cebacked No14c700$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.1933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick27cpaid-29.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0e8…904cbacked No7c660.57$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.328744.8%39 W · 48 L+4.8wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-1.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4a5d…9ea3backed No8c621.51$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.573250%16 W · 16 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd2dc…223ebacked No5c506.01$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.339914.1%14 W · 85 L-8.1wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-60.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked No2c500$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.59228.3%26 W · 66 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x93b7…7d51backed No7c500$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3520551.2%105 W · 100 L+13.3wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+9.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2c88…4c64backed No10c489.96$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+95.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b9b…7e7cbacked No11c473.75$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.874763.8%30 W · 17 L+10.3wins+0.22per pick42cpaid+48.7%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No11c470.99$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.7535712.9%46 W · 311 L-29.9wins-0.08per pick21cpaid-55.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xaec3…22dfbacked No27c432.83$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.923534.3%12 W · 23 L-6.3wins-0.18per pick52cpaid-47.8%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed No11c418.99$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.943495.7%20 W · 329 L-25.3wins-0.07per pick13cpaid-66.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed No3c411.89$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.11510%0 W · 51 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ab3…07bcbacked No11c395.36$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.15553.6%2 W · 53 L-7.0wins-0.13per pick16cpaid-83.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf2e2…06fbbacked Yes78c385.71$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.718337.3%31 W · 52 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-20.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x73b6…5db1backed No12c385.27$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.655127.5%14 W · 37 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick23cpaid-3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed No3c369$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.871662.4%4 W · 162 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick2cpaid-14.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x981d…ed7fbacked No15c302.17$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.498744.8%39 W · 48 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+0.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd9a6…588ebacked No17c300$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.12356.5%13 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8262…eddebacked No24c299.99$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7214335.7%51 W · 92 L+5.5wins+0.04per pick32cpaid-8.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b23…4528backed No10c299.96$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304660.9%28 W · 18 L+5.9wins+0.13per pick48cpaid+53.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf91f…a82bbacked No10c294.85$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.69714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.15per pick29cpaid-77%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa800…bd7abacked Yes76c292.18$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.184831.3%15 W · 33 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-47.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec15…1233backed No9c290.66$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.681625%4 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-46.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc2ac…fc08backed No19c260.73$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2764…1280backed No5c253.14$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.661216.7%2 W · 10 L-2.9wins-0.24per pick41cpaid-70%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed No5c251.36$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.641424.2%6 W · 136 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick2cpaid+27.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe89d…151dbacked No10c250.55$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-65.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x15ce…03c5backed Yes69c240.39$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.527657.9%44 W · 32 L+8.9wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+20.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1c08…1ff6backed No9c220$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.98616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-74%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f8…2097backed No10c204.7$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201560%9 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+27.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x21f1…2593backed No14c202.7$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.2250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-23.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13af…3715backed No19c200$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-30.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x03f9…1f57backed Yes79c200$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.6850%4 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf56e…00d6backed No10c196.37$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-78.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x058c…cbc2backed No12c175.6$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.9590%0 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfb0f…cb38backed No20c172.03$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No8c171.85$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.217948%86 W · 93 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-16.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a0d…0d74backed No12c169.25$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd18d…e7b4backed No16c156.31$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255425.9%14 W · 40 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-23%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No12c155.51$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.946320.5%95 W · 368 L-68.1wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-59.8%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x62ca…ee4bbacked No15c140$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.142638.5%10 W · 16 L+2.7wins+0.10per pick28cpaid+135%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0feb…9876backed Yes80c125.31$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.311931.6%6 W · 13 L-2.9wins-0.15per pick47cpaid-43.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xfb46…5d1bbacked No17c117.69$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-29.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c4c…a5f0backed No9c109.37$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.069142.9%39 W · 52 L+4.9wins+0.05per pick37cpaid-2.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3961…4ab2backed Yes80c107.56$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.651100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ac4…14f1backed No13c100$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133125.8%8 W · 23 L-4.8wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-36.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8c25…8d52backed No20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.94528.9%13 W · 32 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-18.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8751…fe10backed No14c100$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfdbf…c569backed No20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.71346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14f7…4ef7backed Yes79c73.1$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.21837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-50.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa24b…b6f4backed No34c67.99$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.9820%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x89ee…b08fbacked No17c62.01$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x02b4…3908backed No20c60$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.88785.7%6 W · 1 L+3.4wins+0.48per pick38cpaid+196.7%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x8aac…309abacked Yes78c25.57$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.571100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+27.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbad6…9963backed Yes75c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5850%4 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-19.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.