Movies · resolved market
Will Avatar 3 be the second highest grossing movie of 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeb9980199c17162f53bf8b4f65a202761125693db36ba91aa1a11bdada1d5d0b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $273,487
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $133,084
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $273,487 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x82a0…33a1backed Yes | 1c | 20,186$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.02 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdadf…b1edbacked Yes | 0c | 11,517$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.07 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08aa…774ebacked Yes | 1c | 10,631$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa39…977fbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 35 | 2.9%1 W · 34 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -94.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96fd…62f5backed Yes | 1c | 10,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2436…1858backed Yes | 1c | 8,024$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4487…1ec1backed Yes | 4c | 7,911$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.64 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 0c | 7,312$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 111 | 4.5%5 W · 106 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa09b…db3dbacked Yes | 7c | 6,746$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.72 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf503…39e2backed Yes | 1c | 6,080$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.76 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4102…c584backed Yes | 3c | 5,963$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x321a…f416backed Yes | 0c | 5,250$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x755d…6accbacked Yes | 3c | 4,565$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.73 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x178c…5ac6backed Yes | 1c | 4,204$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb877…a13fbacked Yes | 2c | 4,155$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.48 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4463…f3d0backed Yes | 3c | 3,787$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda2b…ff18backed Yes | 2c | 3,000$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 2,797$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.97 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee8…d249backed Yes | 2c | 2,540$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.29 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbef7…0b4dbacked Yes | 2c | 2,522$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…0ca7backed Yes | 2c | 2,394$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4840…297fbacked Yes | 2c | 2,359$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x963a…fc4cbacked Yes | 4c | 2,139$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd444…aba5backed Yes | 5c | 2,072$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.69 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x78bf…13debacked Yes | 5c | 1,953$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 1c | 1,926$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 67 | 4.5%3 W · 64 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 1c | 1,860$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 204 | 2.9%6 W · 198 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 1,850$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 278 | 1.8%5 W · 273 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 1c | 1,773$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 93 | 4.3%4 W · 89 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c2…a1b0backed Yes | 2c | 1,734$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd4…325cbacked Yes | 7c | 1,607$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdcef…7388backed Yes | 1c | 1,576$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f5…6a9abacked Yes | 1c | 1,531$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82a7…9ea8backed Yes | 3c | 1,509$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d47…45d3backed Yes | 1c | 1,406$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,319$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 66 | 6.1%4 W · 62 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c83…0f55backed Yes | 8c | 1,280$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,250$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 56 | 21.4%12 W · 44 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d8…fbc5backed Yes | 6c | 1,179$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.53 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14ed…f51cbacked Yes | 4c | 1,177$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,157$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 170 | 10%17 W · 153 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb384…ff78backed Yes | 1c | 1,143$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7640…71aebacked Yes | 2c | 1,107$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b13…2c26backed Yes | 3c | 1,005$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df8…aa1ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,000$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6508…20b3backed Yes | 5c | 975.87$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.91 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8359…5944backed Yes | 1c | 943.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -86.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 2c | 910.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 30 | 3.3%1 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -34%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73b1…4a78backed Yes | 2c | 894.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc871…5b4ebacked Yes | 2c | 884.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd097…4432backed Yes | 2c | 880.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd10a…00dcbacked Yes | 3c | 861.05$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe267…86e4backed Yes | 2c | 853.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -89.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e4…4a86backed Yes | 2c | 807.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 4c | 785$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.31 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 768.48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf2…740bbacked Yes | 2c | 741.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a2…599ebacked Yes | 5c | 683.78$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 3c | 599.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 62 | 22.6%14 W · 48 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23e9…109fbacked Yes | 2c | 537.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3af8…7e3cbacked Yes | 2c | 490$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8678…121dbacked Yes | 3c | 478.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62eb…a3b6backed Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -73%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5239…099fbacked Yes | 4c | 322$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 4c | 287$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 89 | 4.5%4 W · 85 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb53…0412backed Yes | 4c | 279.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76cb…a1cfbacked Yes | 4c | 244.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 12cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 7c | 192$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 162 | 37.7%61 W · 101 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 6c | 177$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x181f…ac42backed Yes | 7c | 162.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 33 | 0%0 W · 33 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3df6…4992backed Yes | 8c | 129.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Avatar 3 be the second highest grossing movie of 2025?this page
- Will A Minecraft Movie be the second highest grossing movie of 2025?No won
- Will Lilo and Stitch be the second highest grossing movie of 2025?Yes won
- Will Wicked: For Good be the second highest grossing movie of 2025?No won
- Will Zootopia 2 be the second highest grossing movie of 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.