TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will Lilo and Stitch be the second highest grossing movie of 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$466,867
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$583,519

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $466,867 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 144 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa1de…ffd8backed Yes55c9,092$5,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,091.4650%3 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-17.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ce8…6414backed No2c8,762$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1651827.8%5 W · 13 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick23cpaid-54.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5073…59f0backed No43c7,699$3,334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,333.86119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick20cpaid-87.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2436…1858backed No1c7,114$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100170%0 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc22e…40c0backed No3c7,005$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19060%0 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a3c…2db9backed No1c6,812$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.91150%0 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d4a…6cb1backed Yes31c6,580$2,023 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,556.722532%8 W · 17 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-34.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x82a0…33a1backed No4c5,249$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.04190%0 W · 19 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe533…ab29backed No17c5,000$825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$825119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.12per pick21cpaid-87.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf66c…4ab1backed No1c4,629$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.55440%0 W · 44 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84ff…9f4abacked Yes72c4,558$3,263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,295.121729.4%5 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-41.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa801…87a8backed No0c4,000$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1830%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3bef…f04ebacked No2c3,745$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.671216.7%2 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick9cpaid+60.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2615…c16dbacked Yes70c3,342$2,336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,005.64366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick55cpaid-6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd416…d9e2backed Yes61c3,217$1,951 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,265.825044%22 W · 28 L+3.6wins+0.07per pick37cpaid-12.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked No2c2,899$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.37666.1%4 W · 62 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked No5c2,850$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.23894.5%4 W · 85 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-42.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b56…181dbacked No4c2,793$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.33100%0 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b51…5868backed No25c2,729$692 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$691.52540%2 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick26cpaid+73.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b30…29a4backed No42c2,724$1,144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,144.141729.4%5 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb373…c4abbacked No1c2,653$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8340%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x870a…bd43backed No3c2,627$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.2760%0 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x22f0…ae31backed No12c2,413$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.641030%3 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-41.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed No2c2,316$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.282042.9%6 W · 198 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-51.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No1c2,174$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.972781.8%5 W · 273 L-9.2wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-72.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe132…7a38backed No1c2,174$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick9cpaid-62.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed No2c2,154$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.12934.3%4 W · 89 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-20.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed No2c2,013$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.75674.5%3 W · 64 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick5cpaid+3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x169f…d837backed No1c1,956$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No5c1,891$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.546015%9 W · 51 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-36.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked No5c1,878$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.35303.3%1 W · 29 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-34%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xdcef…7388backed No2c1,556$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.49348.8%3 W · 31 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick5cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0537…5b0fbacked No2c1,500$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271323.1%3 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick18cpaid-39.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f5b…b598backed No62c1,449$898 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$898.18536.5%31 W · 54 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No4c1,169$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.461,3938%111 W · 1,282 L-47.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes10c1,158$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,036.5110537.1%39 W · 66 L+6.0wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes60c1,044$623 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$421.3536538.1%139 W · 226 L-19.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7dff…1f35backed Yes78c1,000$778 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2223935.9%14 W · 25 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-30.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x40c4…adbebacked Yes8c999.98$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$919.981225%3 W · 9 L+1.5wins+0.13per pick12cpaid+167%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf503…39e2backed Yes21c963.14$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$758.232536%9 W · 16 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick32cpaid-17.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf65…fde8backed Yes38c933.61$355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$578.47250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+31.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbac1…ce0ebacked Yes10c900.9$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$810.91060%6 W · 4 L+2.9wins+0.29per pick31cpaid+138%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x310b…b12abacked Yes18c831.55$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$684.311216.7%2 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick11cpaid-33.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd362…9bc4backed No3c744.87$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.124233.3%14 W · 28 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-44.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3727…0b44backed Yes42c721.02$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$421.021225%3 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-46.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x50a6…1c2ebacked Yes58c718$416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.56862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+27.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb294…7684backed No7c697.64$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No14c690.34$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.0720850%104 W · 104 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes26c684.17$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$506.4432639.3%128 W · 198 L-7.2wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-15.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ee8…d249backed No3c664.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.93110%0 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5518…46c8backed No9c600$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5470%0 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7678…e5f0backed No61c599.99$363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362.99825%2 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-61.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1ac3…55c8backed No4c558.91$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47c1…825fbacked Yes9c546.8$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$498.61429.5%4 W · 38 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-16.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked No2c522.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6617010%17 W · 153 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-36.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x442a…7c94backed No3c500$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1df6…30a9backed Yes42c500$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2902025%5 W · 15 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-42.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x73c4…ba3bbacked No3c463.56$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.05616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-73.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb940…d1febacked No65c459.31$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-52.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd5fa…f3f8backed No23c413$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.323246.9%15 W · 17 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+18.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3904…b722backed Yes55c403$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.111118.2%2 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick9cpaid-20.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x875e…e6b5backed No3c400$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102045%9 W · 11 L+3.9wins+0.19per pick26cpaid+61.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xbe52…32c5backed No12c400$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.21526.7%4 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick38cpaid+18.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7321…901abacked No10c400$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4080%0 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd535…fa67backed Yes37c385$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.4450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb120…f2ffbacked Yes52c376.75$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.88966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+16.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc851…cd2abacked No54c368.48$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.382646.2%12 W · 14 L+2.7wins+0.11per pick36cpaid+25.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x06dc…af59backed No77c328.48$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.3726041.2%107 W · 153 L+15.4wins+0.06per pick35cpaid-0.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1c55…8adebacked Yes62c319$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.221540%6 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-32.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No67c318$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.2887033.3%290 W · 580 L-77.0wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-37.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4579…9f19backed No8c312.5$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25825%2 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick16cpaid-32%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xad52…11acbacked Yes10c309.06$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.95123.5%12 W · 39 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-24.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x76cb…a1cfbacked No7c303.14$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick12cpaid+25.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x245c…2486backed No76c291.55$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.571735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdd45…59b2backed No7c285.71$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203836.8%14 W · 24 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-37.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c72…a042backed Yes37c276.09$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.821225%3 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-13.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d76…90c2backed Yes65c249.83$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.832433.3%8 W · 16 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-15.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7df9…f899backed No12c245.32$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.6120%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x980d…4a2bbacked Yes77c243.39$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.98450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-17%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b26…57e9backed Yes59c228.44$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.52722.2%6 W · 21 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-65.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3c4c…dd95backed Yes58c220.84$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.88862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick61cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97ed…28e1backed No38c216$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.081741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick44cpaid+4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x322a…3274backed No14c214$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.962254.5%12 W · 10 L+3.4wins+0.16per pick39cpaid+43.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x97bc…5aa2backed No6c209.35$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.230%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf416…6ec9backed No43c200$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8513740.1%55 W · 82 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-23%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7250…5468backed No63c200$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.911361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5567…aeedbacked No43c200$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$853644.4%16 W · 20 L+0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-29.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x777e…d384backed Yes13c199.99$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.991250%6 W · 6 L+2.0wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+87.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x682d…4cd6backed No47c199.54$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.1632814.9%49 W · 279 L+14.2wins+0.04per pick11cpaid-59.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x64e8…7819backed No11c195.51$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.961533.3%5 W · 10 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick26cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3506…4815backed Yes77c192$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.162152.4%11 W · 10 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x963a…fc4cbacked No23c170.42$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401010%1 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-78.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x14d4…cc6fbacked No32c166$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.122755.6%15 W · 12 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xae06…8acebacked Yes33c165$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.351154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b2f…c453backed Yes68c165$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.82951.7%15 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-15.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9099…8491backed No63c155.76$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.824654.3%25 W · 21 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcfb8…ec8dbacked Yes77c154$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.422454.2%13 W · 11 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick48cpaid-3.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd8a2…599ebacked No9c139.68$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1370%0 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9afd…3028backed No62c136.59$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.121233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-47.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbdf7…65d9backed No61c127.87$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.281947.4%9 W · 10 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick41cpaid-15%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.