Movies · resolved market
Will Wicked: For Good be the second highest grossing movie of 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0c71f8f70b83aab4e99e6787a99e4c7d6f4eedae3adfffb742ab8bc6babfb16c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $214,393
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $142,838
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $214,393 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 1c | 31,683$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.31 | 328 | 14.9%49 W · 279 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…33a1backed Yes | 0c | 19,400$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1de…ffd8backed Yes | 4c | 13,399$526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$526.29 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2436…1858backed Yes | 1c | 11,513$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 13c | 8,449$1,110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,110.27 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7cb…76fcbacked Yes | 0c | 8,357$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ba…6aaebacked Yes | 1c | 5,334$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c72…a042backed Yes | 21c | 3,418$712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$712.32 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 3,116$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.63 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x910d…5a46backed Yes | 4c | 2,367$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2031…1d23backed Yes | 4c | 2,270$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x357e…2a0cbacked Yes | 19c | 2,000$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 28cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x110a…38a8backed Yes | 1c | 1,665$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 14c | 1,500$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.99 | 187 | 19.3%36 W · 151 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf70f…d753backed Yes | 6c | 1,350$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b49…c6debacked Yes | 25c | 1,233$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.96 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c3c…b4ecbacked Yes | 1c | 1,200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fab…3c98backed Yes | 21c | 1,146$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.4 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5073…59f0backed No | 75c | 1,007$755 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.83 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -87.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa39…977fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 35 | 2.9%1 W · 34 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -94.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf85f…9800backed Yes | 25c | 1,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 1c | 918.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 30 | 3.3%1 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -34%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x755d…6accbacked Yes | 12c | 903.13$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.88 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 2c | 808.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49e9…0bf2backed Yes | 19c | 800$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f5b…b598backed Yes | 11c | 742.44$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.1 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 4c | 725$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 60 | 15%9 W · 51 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2968…f266backed Yes | 10c | 682.02$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 5c | 629.4$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.11 | 89 | 4.5%4 W · 85 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9bc…9b04backed Yes | 3c | 600.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc28a…ac64backed Yes | 16c | 564.11$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…dc7dbacked Yes | 4c | 550.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26a9…f6b7backed No | 77c | 545.72$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.92 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x189f…11cdbacked Yes | 3c | 459.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 23cpaid | -81.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba4e…cdebbacked Yes | 23c | 437.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…c54fbacked Yes | 5c | 381.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf720…4599backed Yes | 28c | 357.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -26%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x011b…e44dbacked Yes | 13c | 286$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.18 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4041…6f52backed Yes | 6c | 259$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 170 | 17.1%29 W · 141 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe70c…6112backed Yes | 20c | 254.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x963a…fc4cbacked Yes | 17c | 239.32$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41e4…3848backed Yes | 10c | 238.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +110.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a6…2ab9backed Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 198 | 36.4%72 W · 126 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…30a9backed Yes | 17c | 202.5$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.27 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x777e…d384backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +87.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 260 | 41.2%107 W · 153 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2aac…dfadbacked Yes | 14c | 196.43$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.34 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | -78%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes | 16c | 188.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 285 | 24.2%69 W · 216 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc47d…8053backed Yes | 9c | 161$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc108…483fbacked Yes | 19c | 136.7$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc95a…82c1backed No | 73c | 136$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.72 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 9c | 130$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed Yes | 17c | 105$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28d6…8322backed Yes | 16c | 100.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x416b…bad6backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 55 | 23.6%13 W · 42 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7815…5400backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…7d2dbacked No | 78c | 86.84$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -57%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70d2…9213backed Yes | 15c | 80.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb120…f2ffbacked No | 78c | 28.49$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 79c | 22.97$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 131 | 35.1%46 W · 85 L | -14.0wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa29a…09c7backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67f1…3e4fbacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Wicked: For Good be the second highest grossing movie of 2025?this page
- Will A Minecraft Movie be the second highest grossing movie of 2025?No won
- Will Avatar 3 be the second highest grossing movie of 2025?No won
- Will Lilo and Stitch be the second highest grossing movie of 2025?Yes won
- Will Zootopia 2 be the second highest grossing movie of 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.