TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will Avatar 3 be the third highest grossing movie of 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$829,616
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$513,076

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $829,616 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 200 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x82a0…33a1backed Yes1c35,208$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.43190%0 W · 19 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6eda…75ddbacked Yes4c26,211$949 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$948.99837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick32cpaid-31%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x929c…e816backed Yes1c25,472$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.8590%0 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x62cf…5826backed Yes9c24,001$2,091 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,090.782653.8%14 W · 12 L+2.8wins+0.11per pick43cpaid-7.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x96fd…62f5backed Yes0c22,300$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50110%0 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0624…744cbacked Yes1c21,750$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.8930%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes4c21,708$858 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$858.149021.1%19 W · 71 L0.0wins0.00per pick21cpaid-25.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44e9…5798backed Yes7c20,507$1,442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,442.0480%0 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2bf2…45bcbacked Yes0c20,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7db…feb0backed Yes5c18,060$879 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$878.863831.6%12 W · 26 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-38%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0486…2a2fbacked Yes2c16,610$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.130%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9b4…7cf1backed Yes0c15,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4463…f3d0backed Yes4c13,385$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500150%0 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2635…41aebacked Yes3c12,715$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$430.4650%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c1e…5181backed Yes5c12,270$565 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$564.7290%0 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb659…c375backed Yes6c10,826$659 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$659.38520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-72%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0de9…e633backed Yes2c10,176$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.412128.6%6 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-39.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa39…977fbacked Yes0c8,613$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.09352.9%1 W · 34 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick2cpaid-94.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe646…0a39backed Yes3c7,910$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26430%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c18…36aebacked Yes3c7,413$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.1920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb401…df2abacked Yes3c6,992$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.81631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-47.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2436…1858backed Yes1c6,909$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100170%0 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes3c6,830$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.722751.9%14 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick47cpaid-21.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c0c…7b4dbacked Yes2c6,550$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.4230%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa61e…6906backed Yes3c6,227$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.2650%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x705d…0ca7backed Yes4c6,154$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.840%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcad4…1a4cbacked Yes4c5,662$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.2530%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60b8…945fbacked Yes4c5,591$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.1570%0 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8271…1b26backed Yes3c5,537$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.0150%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f2f…fa00backed Yes2c5,510$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.8250%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1b08…1a9dbacked Yes0c5,503$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1843…e483backed Yes0c5,275$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc412…592dbacked Yes0c5,100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.42737%10 W · 17 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-21.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes0c5,012$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3814015%21 W · 119 L-6.2wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-25.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes4c4,555$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.683119.4%6 W · 25 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-61.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes3c4,467$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.78674.5%3 W · 64 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick5cpaid+3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes3c4,427$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.772042.9%6 W · 198 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-51.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes3c4,317$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.145234.6%18 W · 34 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-45.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes2c4,159$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.162781.8%5 W · 273 L-9.2wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-72.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes5c4,140$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.51303.3%1 W · 29 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-34%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4102…c584backed Yes4c4,102$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a4e…0116backed Yes4c4,099$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.3430%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes3c4,004$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.18666.1%4 W · 62 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x55c5…a686backed Yes5c4,000$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick17cpaid+66.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7640…71aebacked Yes4c3,914$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes3c3,894$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.79934.3%4 W · 89 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-20.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56e6…abbabacked Yes6c3,837$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.871711.8%2 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick18cpaid-70.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdcef…7388backed Yes4c3,582$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.65348.8%3 W · 31 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick5cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x47c1…825fbacked Yes4c3,502$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.98429.5%4 W · 38 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-16.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x08aa…774ebacked Yes3c3,465$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9080%0 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e7c…5399backed Yes1c3,419$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-60.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes4c3,325$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.446015%9 W · 51 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-36.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b13…2c26backed Yes5c3,316$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.2120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7ff…f668backed Yes4c3,300$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.5714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-73%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd7c0…6aa1backed Yes5c3,084$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.7450%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes4c3,031$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.421,3938%111 W · 1,282 L-47.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x57bb…2d0bbacked Yes5c3,000$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.430%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f3c…b4b8backed Yes6c3,000$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.51915.8%3 W · 16 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick22cpaid-66.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1199…d5f9backed Yes3c2,904$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.5250%0 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x06dc…af59backed Yes6c2,819$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.0626041.2%107 W · 153 L+15.4wins+0.06per pick35cpaid-0.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe504…70efbacked Yes3c2,766$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.952718.5%5 W · 22 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick26cpaid-58.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd2de…163bbacked Yes2c2,758$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.5140%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad52…11acbacked Yes4c2,716$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.415123.5%12 W · 39 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-24.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7002…1be1backed Yes4c2,401$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.6580%0 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f51…5f02backed Yes5c2,400$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.2616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.16per pick32cpaid-67.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf1f5…6a9abacked Yes0c2,303$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5950%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8dda…6ec7backed Yes1c2,225$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.5870%0 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa266…87e3backed Yes9c2,204$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6eb6…1b70backed Yes5c2,100$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.3425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-51.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd444…aba5backed Yes6c2,067$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.591266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.0wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+4.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x686c…86f8backed Yes5c2,000$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa966…208bbacked Yes3c1,975$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.1330%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14ed…f51cbacked Yes5c1,914$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8830%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe59d…dc31backed Yes1c1,737$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.95425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-56.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f9b…0029backed Yes11c1,714$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.78425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-48.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85e6…1a38backed Yes9c1,680$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick17cpaid-54.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe3e4…8d04backed Yes1c1,665$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6238.7%2 W · 21 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick17cpaid-67.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes7c1,665$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.5567232%215 W · 457 L+14.4wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-30%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3727…0b44backed Yes49c1,641$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8001225%3 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-46.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3cd1…9249backed Yes4c1,600$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8674…0d1ebacked Yes4c1,535$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$612729.6%8 W · 19 L-3.4wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-49.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x00c8…a75fbacked Yes4c1,510$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.28520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-45.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c33…bc5cbacked Yes3c1,502$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.850%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90d6…997abacked Yes5c1,500$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$711435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-40.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x990a…7b16backed Yes5c1,447$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.19110%0 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x178c…5ac6backed Yes3c1,432$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.0290%0 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xfea9…f124backed Yes4c1,425$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick23cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfde5…676cbacked Yes6c1,402$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.27per pick40cpaid+17%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0342…023abacked Yes1c1,392$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf921…94dbbacked Yes8c1,334$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.051926.3%5 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick26cpaid-50%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c43…626dbacked Yes4c1,253$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.18616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick13cpaid-57.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x541f…5fa5backed Yes3c1,236$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.270%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6467…7cadbacked Yes4c1,234$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick55cpaid-39.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x42a9…2253backed Yes3c1,173$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes3c1,159$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.1217010%17 W · 153 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-36.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ca0…32a7backed Yes9c1,144$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.20per pick42cpaid-66.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x28b2…eb4fbacked Yes8c1,134$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.98728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-56.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcff8…737bbacked Yes3c1,110$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3550%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5073…59f0backed Yes7c1,096$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.58119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick20cpaid-87.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ee8…d249backed Yes3c1,083$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.93110%0 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.