Movies · resolved market
Will A Minecraft Movie be the third highest grossing movie of 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x48349298477ffaa19884fb9af9969d289549b7f8a37bab32d97abde35f0ff6c3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $580,272
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $253,598
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $580,272 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2436…1858backed Yes | 0c | 95,387$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdadf…b1edbacked Yes | 0c | 69,859$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.86 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 0c | 52,599$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.37 | 140 | 15%21 W · 119 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…33a1backed Yes | 0c | 40,753$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.48 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57b3…6661backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00ee…1128backed Yes | 0c | 12,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f5…6a9abacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7002…1be1backed Yes | 1c | 8,089$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.81 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 7,891$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.1 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0918…ce53backed Yes | 0c | 7,052$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5073…59f0backed Yes | 8c | 6,766$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547.52 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -87.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa266…87e3backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f0…583dbacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd1…9c20backed Yes | 43c | 4,459$1,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,899.54 | 76 | 27.6%21 W · 55 L | -6.9wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -43%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 18c | 4,443$788 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$788.1 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe504…70efbacked No | 61c | 3,317$2,032 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,284.88 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad87…6a86backed No | 78c | 3,162$2,466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$695.92 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x740b…1d47backed Yes | 1c | 2,784$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -52%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd778…58f5backed Yes | 0c | 2,691$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x357e…2a0cbacked Yes | 25c | 1,985$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.21 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 28cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ce…9811backed No | 78c | 1,652$1,283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.84 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -28%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f5b…b598backed Yes | 19c | 1,495$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8957…e18abacked Yes | 28c | 1,438$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.53 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 2c | 1,230$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a2…599ebacked Yes | 1c | 978.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d4a…6cb1backed Yes | 24c | 813.08$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.17 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x063a…eb4bbacked No | 68c | 500$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 50c | 499.94$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.97 | 53 | 7.5%4 W · 49 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf503…39e2backed Yes | 7c | 459.17$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.01 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed Yes | 5c | 451$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.21 | 74 | 31.1%23 W · 51 L | -7.1wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4fab…3c98backed Yes | 25c | 350$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.5 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b26…57e9backed Yes | 4c | 270.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 8c | 262.61$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 21c | 212$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.86 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 73c | 200$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.8 | 131 | 35.1%46 W · 85 L | -14.0wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5299…045abacked Yes | 8c | 181.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 16c | 178.01$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.28 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7544…060fbacked Yes | 37c | 107.25$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a6…2ab9backed Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 198 | 36.4%72 W · 126 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 78c | 104.92$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 129 | 23.3%30 W · 99 L | -7.3wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2aac…dfadbacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | -78%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x416b…bad6backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 55 | 23.6%13 W · 42 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x245c…2486backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed Yes | 31c | 83.87$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.12 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c27…1555backed No | 68c | 82.08$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.27 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fd…5b3cbacked Yes | 32c | 78.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9244…4b6ebacked Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 71c | 28.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x210c…2edabacked No | 76c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c39…3cc7backed No | 78c | 20.8$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5e…5c24backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will A Minecraft Movie be the third highest grossing movie of 2025?this page
- Will Avatar 3 be the third highest grossing movie of 2025?No won
- Will Jurassic World Rebirth be the third highest grossing movie of 2025?No won
- Will Lilo and Stitch be the third highest grossing movie of 2025?No won
- Will Superman be the third highest grossing movie of 2025?Yes won
- Will Wicked: For Good be the third highest grossing movie of 2025?No won
- Will Zootopia 2 be the third highest grossing movie of 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.