Middle East · resolved market
Khamenei public appearance by February 21, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbf4a96cf45ce11e3ccfb15d1337df645553f37f515dcef169a5bd85551d04f97
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,691
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,467
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,691 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcb58…6a91backed No | 10c | 6,008$601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf041…dde5backed No | 71c | 3,513$2,505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,505.34 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +93.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 28c | 998$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$715.13 | 54 | 14.8%8 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 7c | 956$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.2 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 16c | 554.37$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.5 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…b5b5backed Yes | 35c | 552.05$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.29 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x557e…5007backed Yes | 23c | 543.96$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.28 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | +8.4wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +92.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0218…52c0backed No | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -3.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbef7…0b4dbacked Yes | 28c | 379.27$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.74 | 77 | 27.3%21 W · 56 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe267…86e4backed Yes | 37c | 271$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.73 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf79f…662ebacked Yes | 38c | 260.47$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.47 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xceb5…4438backed Yes | 37c | 251.53$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.16 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 12c | 251.08$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.86 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd246…fec7backed Yes | 70c | 236.82$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.67 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf83…3016backed No | 43c | 231.92$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.79 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed No | 6c | 217.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 139 | 18.7%26 W · 113 L | -13.9wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x36da…8218backed Yes | 45c | 209.42$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.1 | 95 | 32.6%31 W · 64 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes | 34c | 164.61$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.28 | 159 | 51.6%82 W · 77 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x287c…c71dbacked No | 10c | 155.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b60…49bfbacked Yes | 33c | 148.82$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.22 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 42c | 140$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.68 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccd…1ec9backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x483a…8832backed No | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | -21%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0bc…5601backed No | 60c | 90$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.25per pick | 61cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 22c | 86.63$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.32 | 292 | 54.8%160 W · 132 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x952b…edfabacked Yes | 47c | 72.77$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.87 | 64 | 75%48 W · 16 L | +12.3wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +50%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 34c | 60$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 323 | 45.2%146 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…5066backed Yes | 35c | 54.36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.54 | 132 | 28%37 W · 95 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb8…cf89backed Yes | 37c | 53.05$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.64 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x455f…518abacked No | 50c | 40.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed No | 53c | 35.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 97 | 39.2%38 W · 59 L | +9.5wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x18c7…77b2backed No | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x300f…d366backed No | 59c | 32.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47e7…7c61backed No | 49c | 32.51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 115 | 54.8%63 W · 52 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 41c | 26.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.83 | 114 | 52.6%60 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed No | 45c | 22.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 124 | 33.1%41 W · 83 L | -12.5wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc346…345fbacked No | 60c | 18.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Khamenei public appearance by February 21, 2026?this page
- Khamenei public appearance by February 28, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.