Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 120-129 tweets from January 3 to January 5, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbe27cce0f193b57b24abec1ed999206b39053d45dfd2fe3ba5d9275b036953f4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $103,262
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $73,916
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $103,262 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 1c | 14,514$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.65 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 5,746$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.17 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00dc…d521backed Yes | 0c | 4,670$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…6591backed Yes | 10c | 3,623$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.89 | 235 | 9.4%22 W · 213 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x265f…a448backed Yes | 8c | 2,243$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.78 | 285 | 34.4%98 W · 187 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…2f27backed Yes | 4c | 2,003$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.6 | 241 | 15.4%37 W · 204 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf667…2abcbacked Yes | 3c | 1,477$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.74 | 126 | 19%24 W · 102 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 7c | 1,473$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.36 | 434 | 5.1%22 W · 412 L | -13.5wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e4…d1f7backed Yes | 5c | 1,188$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.38 | 267 | 22.8%61 W · 206 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5dd…af6dbacked Yes | 4c | 999.96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 57 | 0%0 W · 57 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 4c | 912.28$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.37 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb364…d7a3backed Yes | 2c | 692.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked Yes | 4c | 635.87$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x844a…5f53backed Yes | 12c | 550.37$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.61 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 3c | 510.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 259 | 5.4%14 W · 245 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 2c | 487.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 261 | 5.4%14 W · 247 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 5c | 483.57$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 182 | 4.9%9 W · 173 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 472.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 1,053 | 5.6%59 W · 994 L | +20.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 9c | 429.29$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.02 | 122 | 13.9%17 W · 105 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a0d…54f7backed Yes | 13c | 427.16$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.04 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec6…f325backed Yes | 14c | 403.4$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.91 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes | 6c | 401.28$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 384 | 4.7%18 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 3c | 399.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 279 | 4.7%13 W · 266 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 10c | 394.26$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.74 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 4c | 390$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 4c | 344.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd93…a22bbacked Yes | 3c | 303.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 198 | 19.7%39 W · 159 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…7e5abacked Yes | 10c | 302.81$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.54 | 291 | 13.1%38 W · 253 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1db9…a43bbacked Yes | 5c | 299.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 238 | 19.3%46 W · 192 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -25%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15c2…ebc0backed Yes | 12c | 226.59$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 212 | 11.8%25 W · 187 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbef7…0b4dbacked Yes | 14c | 212.26$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb56a…a485backed Yes | 14c | 211.31$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.43 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 8c | 186.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 510 | 18.2%93 W · 417 L | -89.7wins | -0.18per pick | 36cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 11c | 183.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 412 | 30.8%127 W · 285 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x404f…f2a1backed Yes | 7c | 155$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 43 | 9.3%4 W · 39 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1c…aebebacked Yes | 11c | 146.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 131 | 21.4%28 W · 103 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb000…713fbacked Yes | 14c | 137.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -90.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c00…4b34backed Yes | 10c | 133.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedf0…1d06backed Yes | 16c | 126.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25af…298bbacked Yes | 9c | 120$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -71%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x729e…e23ebacked Yes | 15c | 119.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 238 | 31.1%74 W · 164 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca3f…0f89backed Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 79 | 16.5%13 W · 66 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f8…97b3backed Yes | 19c | 104.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 221 | 42.5%94 W · 127 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe267…86e4backed Yes | 15c | 102.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21cc…2024backed Yes | 13c | 83.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf975…bd15backed Yes | 13c | 79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +3.5wins | +0.12per pick | 23cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebe7…068abacked Yes | 15c | 67.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 52 | 11.5%6 W · 46 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 120-129 tweets from January 3 to January 5, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 100-109 tweets from January 3 to January 5, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 110-119 tweets from January 3 to January 5, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 130-139 tweets from January 3 to January 5, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140+ tweets from January 3 to January 5, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-49 tweets from January 3 to January 5, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 50-59 tweets from January 3 to January 5, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 60-69 tweets from January 3 to January 5, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 70-79 tweets from January 3 to January 5, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 80-89 tweets from January 3 to January 5, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-99 tweets from January 3 to January 5, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from January 3 to January 5, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.