Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 110-119 tweets from January 3 to January 5, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x73970aae64ca6b415b70ce0679b3d949e1a482184f6c73ae3123ce5c6e1dd7cb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $188,636
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $144,797
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $188,636 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xddd8…e6f7backed Yes | 0c | 41,486$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.49 | 72 | 16.7%12 W · 60 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee21…e2febacked Yes | 0c | 26,600$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…34a7backed Yes | 0c | 10,474$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 7cpaid | -66%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 10,312$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.03 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a0d…54f7backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa20…9262backed Yes | 1c | 4,441$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.54 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…2f27backed Yes | 4c | 1,510$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.66 | 241 | 15.4%37 W · 204 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 3c | 999.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5dd…af6dbacked Yes | 4c | 999.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 57 | 0%0 W · 57 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65d3…471cbacked Yes | 2c | 858.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f8…98e1backed Yes | 3c | 624.74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 218 | 18.3%40 W · 178 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 2c | 616.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 434 | 5.1%22 W · 412 L | -13.5wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked Yes | 4c | 492.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 3c | 399.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 182 | 4.9%9 W · 173 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 360.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 1,053 | 5.6%59 W · 994 L | +20.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 5c | 300$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 259 | 5.4%14 W · 245 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 9c | 200$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 510 | 18.2%93 W · 417 L | -89.7wins | -0.18per pick | 36cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xebe7…068abacked Yes | 14c | 72.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 52 | 11.5%6 W · 46 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 110-119 tweets from January 3 to January 5, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 100-109 tweets from January 3 to January 5, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 120-129 tweets from January 3 to January 5, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 130-139 tweets from January 3 to January 5, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140+ tweets from January 3 to January 5, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-49 tweets from January 3 to January 5, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 50-59 tweets from January 3 to January 5, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 60-69 tweets from January 3 to January 5, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 70-79 tweets from January 3 to January 5, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 80-89 tweets from January 3 to January 5, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-99 tweets from January 3 to January 5, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from January 3 to January 5, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.