Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 140+ tweets from January 3 to January 5, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb94cd8e8ea2d69b303cf0dda25762a24d0bff4d5c39050761df9cc71ccad2aa3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $116,763
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $143,866
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $116,763 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 150 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1355…6591backed No | 20c | 4,502$882 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$881.88 | 235 | 9.4%22 W · 213 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x585d…ff6dbacked Yes | 67c | 1,904$1,267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$637.19 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 7c | 1,740$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.46 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 9c | 1,731$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.95 | 434 | 5.1%22 W · 412 L | -13.5wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf243…5fb4backed Yes | 68c | 1,519$1,034 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485.02 | 64 | 15.6%10 W · 54 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 60c | 1,500$907 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$593.62 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x303c…4487backed No | 21c | 1,226$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.37 | 47 | 27.7%13 W · 34 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 21c | 1,169$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.68 | 315 | 65.1%205 W · 110 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 23c | 1,149$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.97 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d9…4c05backed No | 12c | 1,116$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 22c | 900.57$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.81 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa9…c8e8backed Yes | 67c | 799.98$535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.39 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +89.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3d…6850backed No | 20c | 790.52$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -57%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 18c | 784.67$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.23 | 261 | 67%175 W · 86 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed No | 13c | 727.77$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.35 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15c2…ebc0backed Yes | 67c | 713.92$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.23 | 212 | 11.8%25 W · 187 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec0c…8589backed No | 41c | 709.96$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.02 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked No | 6c | 700$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.8 | 182 | 4.9%9 W · 173 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb79f…d749backed No | 2c | 674.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f8…98e1backed No | 36c | 617.55$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.6 | 218 | 18.3%40 W · 178 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c29…8c43backed Yes | 74c | 598.62$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.62 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x265f…a448backed Yes | 73c | 554.27$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.85 | 285 | 34.4%98 W · 187 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf667…2abcbacked Yes | 73c | 551.24$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.42 | 126 | 19%24 W · 102 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Yes | 74c | 541.37$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.88 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +43%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dfa…7fc6backed Yes | 73c | 517.03$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.94 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 23c | 510.8$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.73 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f0…25d2backed No | 13c | 468.43$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 384 | 4.7%18 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 27c | 461.8$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.89 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed No | 38c | 403.1$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.75 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 7c | 400$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 691 | 5.5%38 W · 653 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked No | 7c | 399.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 259 | 5.4%14 W · 245 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x380f…8229backed Yes | 71c | 357$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.53 | 177 | 22.6%40 W · 137 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab02…f76bbacked Yes | 51c | 323.94$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +97.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9416…5a15backed No | 34c | 323.22$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 40 | 20%8 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed No | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 279 | 4.7%13 W · 266 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 9c | 300$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 1,053 | 5.6%59 W · 994 L | +20.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed No | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 261 | 5.4%14 W · 247 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7290…b1b3backed No | 30c | 299.99$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa59c…bb62backed No | 36c | 299.99$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 174 | 19%33 W · 141 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x844a…5f53backed No | 21c | 298.33$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.98 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e3…c9d0backed Yes | 65c | 265$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.06 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27c8…2257backed Yes | 66c | 250$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.25 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3481…6b3cbacked Yes | 63c | 239.78$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.78 | 89 | 15.7%14 W · 75 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…b722backed Yes | 61c | 239.29$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.66 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c6…6d71backed Yes | 64c | 235.51$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.51 | 97 | 23.7%23 W · 74 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed No | 23c | 215.12$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.37 | 102 | 7.8%8 W · 94 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef0f…1dc9backed Yes | 66c | 206.06$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.18 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +388.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5153…af7dbacked Yes | 70c | 204.93$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.96 | 97 | 30.9%30 W · 67 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -25%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe23d…3c72backed Yes | 61c | 200$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 202 | 26.7%54 W · 148 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x962c…bcd6backed Yes | 74c | 180$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6185…f60fbacked Yes | 55c | 175.74$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.73 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41c0…f469backed Yes | 68c | 171.49$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.83 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x276c…05a9backed Yes | 72c | 170$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.26 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08ea…f3f2backed Yes | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.67 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc2…c55dbacked Yes | 62c | 160.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.1 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5c…4568backed Yes | 63c | 159.99$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +146.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6467…7cadbacked Yes | 64c | 157$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc7…68a3backed Yes | 65c | 155.02$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.02 | 52 | 13.5%7 W · 45 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd93…a22bbacked Yes | 71c | 151.44$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.26 | 198 | 19.7%39 W · 159 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed No | 27c | 150$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 412 | 30.8%127 W · 285 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c77…2365backed Yes | 69c | 145.15$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.15 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d6b…75eebacked Yes | 74c | 142.22$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -55%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fba…1404backed Yes | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf2a…5d4abacked Yes | 75c | 133.36$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.36 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked No | 27c | 123.2$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 627 | 13.2%83 W · 544 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb392…0b80backed No | 17c | 118.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 74 | 31.1%23 W · 51 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f1…def9backed No | 35c | 117.64$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd1…0a73backed Yes | 70c | 114.79$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.79 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7483…1f07backed No | 70c | 110.5$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6e…54cfbacked Yes | 68c | 108.56$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.09 | 412 | 20.6%85 W · 327 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97d5…a007backed No | 37c | 108.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce1…1209backed No | 33c | 106.19$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe267…86e4backed Yes | 61c | 103.75$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.75 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f8…97b3backed Yes | 67c | 101.56$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.56 | 221 | 42.5%94 W · 127 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3b…500abacked No | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8be9…ddc3backed Yes | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cbe…d93bbacked Yes | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7529…5cd7backed No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 147 | 18.4%27 W · 120 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6496…8e19backed Yes | 75c | 99.96$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.96 | 178 | 17.4%31 W · 147 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe87b…6c02backed Yes | 68c | 97.76$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.41 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53f8…dd75backed No | 39c | 95.03$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -42%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbef7…0b4dbacked Yes | 63c | 94.86$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.86 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 58c | 91$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.39 | 122 | 13.9%17 W · 105 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e9…fd2dbacked Yes | 78c | 89.44$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc66e…61d9backed No | 33c | 87.88$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe85f…7f69backed Yes | 71c | 80$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.95 | 76 | 26.3%20 W · 56 L | +5.7wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…47eebacked Yes | 38c | 78.61$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…76eebacked No | 16c | 76.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 94 | 40.4%38 W · 56 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd979…d8a0backed No | 42c | 75.8$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.54 | 86 | 16.3%14 W · 72 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5e…2a5cbacked Yes | 63c | 73$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.94 | 51 | 19.6%10 W · 41 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07c1…e23cbacked No | 42c | 72.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.22 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf730…8a0abacked Yes | 74c | 67.77$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.77 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f89…55debacked Yes | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +85.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 57c | 66.76$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 592 | 25.3%150 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2db7…a027backed Yes | 77c | 65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 76c | 64.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.42 | 292 | 25%73 W · 219 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f7e…d49bbacked No | 41c | 63.88$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.04 | 72 | 15.3%11 W · 61 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1d…69b0backed No | 40c | 62.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +105.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d8…ebe1backed No | 41c | 60.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc419…e588backed Yes | 64c | 60.02$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.59 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 140+ tweets from January 3 to January 5, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 100-109 tweets from January 3 to January 5, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 110-119 tweets from January 3 to January 5, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 120-129 tweets from January 3 to January 5, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 130-139 tweets from January 3 to January 5, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-49 tweets from January 3 to January 5, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 50-59 tweets from January 3 to January 5, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 60-69 tweets from January 3 to January 5, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 70-79 tweets from January 3 to January 5, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 80-89 tweets from January 3 to January 5, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-99 tweets from January 3 to January 5, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from January 3 to January 5, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.