TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 130-139 tweets from January 3 to January 5, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$92,539
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$63,165

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $92,539 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x037b…47f4backed Yes1c5,876$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.774165.3%22 W · 394 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick3cpaid+158.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe130…2f27backed Yes5c5,442$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.1924115.4%37 W · 204 L+0.9wins0.00per pick15cpaid-31.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17a5…e00abacked Yes3c3,876$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.6119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick20cpaid-51.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes7c2,995$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.4662412.3%77 W · 547 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1355…6591backed Yes8c2,914$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.632359.4%22 W · 213 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick7cpaid+19.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes5c2,150$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.952,1603.9%85 W · 2,075 L+5.9wins0.00per pick4cpaid-35.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes2c2,051$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.2738811.9%46 W · 342 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick10cpaid+51.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes5c1,756$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.584345.1%22 W · 412 L-13.5wins-0.03per pick8cpaid-33%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xddd8…e6f7backed Yes2c1,547$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.627216.7%12 W · 60 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-69.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x66d8…8258backed Yes24c1,321$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.195541.8%23 W · 32 L+7.1wins+0.13per pick29cpaid+68.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes2c1,159$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5640%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes11c1,079$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.381,7807.4%132 W · 1,648 L-23.1wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes3c1,076$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.6184616.4%139 W · 707 L+24.6wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee21…e2febacked Yes13c1,000$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1301020%2 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-34.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb392…0b80backed Yes1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107431.1%23 W · 51 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick34cpaid+6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd5dd…af6dbacked Yes5c999.98$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50570%0 W · 57 L-4.5wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x265f…a448backed Yes2c960.61$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.0628534.4%98 W · 187 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-19.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x15c2…ebc0backed Yes16c667.7$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.9821211.8%25 W · 187 L-8.2wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-31.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf243…5fb4backed Yes15c642.56$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.716415.6%10 W · 54 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick20cpaid-57.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f1f…feaebacked Yes12c623.53$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.712218.2%4 W · 18 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-50.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x27c8…2257backed Yes27c600$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.53625%9 W · 27 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-34.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7529…5cd7backed Yes21c527.68$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11014718.4%27 W · 120 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick19cpaid+5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x585d…ff6dbacked Yes25c519.42$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.543818.4%7 W · 31 L-3.5wins-0.09per pick28cpaid-13.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes5c493.13$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.241824.9%9 W · 173 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick4cpaid+28.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa7fe…1f3ebacked Yes24c444.87$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.779740.2%39 W · 58 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9416…5a15backed Yes29c432.58$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.084020%8 W · 32 L-2.9wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-17.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4fc2…c55dbacked Yes23c432.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002615.4%4 W · 22 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick16cpaid-18.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a0d…54f7backed Yes27c417$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.670%0 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x856b…d53cbacked Yes3c399.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121838.9%7 W · 11 L+2.7wins+0.15per pick24cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1db9…a43bbacked Yes12c399.99$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5023819.3%46 W · 192 L-6.2wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-25%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes11c390$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.8176821.7%167 W · 601 L-2.0wins0.00per pick22cpaid-49.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd93…a22bbacked Yes6c341$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2019819.7%39 W · 159 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x256b…e0d3backed Yes4c305.56$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111056.7%7 W · 98 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick10cpaid+36%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa110…78fabacked Yes8c303.73$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.4610631.1%33 W · 73 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-21.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes6c299.99$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181,0535.6%59 W · 994 L+20.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes17c294.45$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.412213.9%17 W · 105 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-63.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes7c288.49$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.962794.7%13 W · 266 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes4c288.41$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.52595.4%14 W · 245 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-13.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x58cd…775abacked Yes17c287.71$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5038614.2%55 W · 331 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-33.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes5c272.61$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.036915.5%38 W · 653 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7e4…d1f7backed Yes13c269.99$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.126722.8%61 W · 206 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-17.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3904…b722backed Yes19c239.99$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.62015%3 W · 17 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick14cpaid+54.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed Yes10c227.25$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.6656817.4%99 W · 469 L+18.3wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-17.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3481…6b3cbacked Yes26c200$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$528915.7%14 W · 75 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick17cpaid+7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes6c199.88$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.992615.4%14 W · 247 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4c7…c6bdbacked Yes6c190.06$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick44cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d1c…aebebacked Yes11c189.68$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.3913121.4%28 W · 103 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-36.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes13c185.36$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.3178811.5%91 W · 697 L-33.7wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-42.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x958e…e9dfbacked Yes8c182.5$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1410131.7%32 W · 69 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick28cpaid-13.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3592…c81abacked Yes14c181.36$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.263212.5%4 W · 28 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick12cpaid+11%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5c77…2365backed Yes27c177.14$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.282520%5 W · 20 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6185…f60fbacked Yes19c175.69$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.381540%6 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c03…d9bcbacked Yes11c174.78$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204619.6%9 W · 37 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick17cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x430e…ed6dbacked No75c174.36$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.5920973.2%153 W · 56 L+16.3wins+0.08per pick65cpaid+3.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4703…ce7fbacked Yes7c171$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.97616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick12cpaid-62.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd93…55b4backed Yes16c160.67$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.0920%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4dbd…f10dbacked Yes11c160$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.356212.9%8 W · 54 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick9cpaid+63.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3f8…98e1backed No78c150$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.521818.3%40 W · 178 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8eab…a56dbacked Yes9c147$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.532785%14 W · 264 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-89.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8de9…3171backed Yes12c143.65$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.4460%0 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca3f…0f89backed Yes15c130.93$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.997916.5%13 W · 66 L-5.5wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-30.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6496…8e19backed Yes16c127.71$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2017817.4%31 W · 147 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-12.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3a8…ec7dbacked Yes10c124.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x844a…5f53backed Yes14c117.42$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.885225%13 W · 39 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick26cpaid+50.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb8b…5672backed Yes15c115.44$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1330%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d6e…54cfbacked Yes9c114.66$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0641220.6%85 W · 327 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick19cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ec7…a9edbacked Yes15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-34.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc24a…fdbcbacked Yes12c100$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124112.2%5 W · 36 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick10cpaid+39.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes12c100$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8451018.2%93 W · 417 L-89.7wins-0.18per pick36cpaid-49.7%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x1fa6…4094backed Yes27c84.1$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2330714%43 W · 264 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-33.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x729e…e23ebacked Yes23c77.59$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1823831.1%74 W · 164 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-19.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3103…ea70backed Yes25c75$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1913926.6%37 W · 102 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-23.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8975…ffe6backed No78c72.55$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.233762.2%23 W · 14 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick67cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x41c0…f469backed Yes22c69.01$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.86425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-63.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes28c66.76$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.4959225.3%150 W · 442 L+2.3wins0.00per pick25cpaid-42.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa805…8622backed Yes23c53.32$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-22.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc01e…f717backed Yes20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x25af…298bbacked Yes22c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.81811.1%2 W · 16 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick18cpaid-71%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x625b…812bbacked Yes20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10147.1%1 W · 13 L-3.1wins-0.22per pick29cpaid-83%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xebe7…068abacked Yes23c43.2$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105211.5%6 W · 46 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-31.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6709…9fd1backed Yes27c36.53$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10175.9%1 W · 16 L-1.8wins-0.11per pick17cpaid-90.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked No79c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.24568.3%38 W · 418 L+1.3wins0.00per pick8cpaid-20.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.