Token Launches · resolved market
Bitway FDV above $100M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbaee4973805851567c20a8f3f4fb48712fbdf09d027a0b0290397e7036ae06b3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $133,291
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $138,514
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $133,291 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 131 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x64d9…46e6backed No | 79c | 11,959$9,506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,506.26 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 0c | 8,400$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 206 | 1.9%4 W · 202 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa1…c691backed Yes | 15c | 5,000$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,250 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +4.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x11e9…4136backed Yes | 32c | 3,894$1,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,643.76 | 86 | 30.2%26 W · 60 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6138…97a0backed Yes | 22c | 3,724$811 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,913.3 | 159 | 41.5%66 W · 93 L | +9.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe51e…5e7fbacked Yes | 30c | 3,710$1,105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,605.32 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e27…c659backed Yes | 26c | 3,522$921 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,601.48 | 61 | 14.8%9 W · 52 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18e4…e2bbbacked No | 59c | 2,874$1,684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,683.78 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e37…cccbbacked No | 75c | 2,669$1,995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,995.33 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 3c | 2,611$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.75 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 22c | 2,606$573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$573.27 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | +128.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe267…86e4backed Yes | 78c | 2,565$1,994 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570.99 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1549…46f6backed Yes | 28c | 2,486$691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,794.45 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +6.9wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe6de…12f7backed No | 1c | 2,293$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf17…6cc6backed Yes | 24c | 2,285$557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,728.51 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +8.4wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x0d06…ec01backed Yes | 22c | 2,000$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,560 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42e0…ff53backed Yes | 18c | 1,897$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,563.45 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa3…1b5fbacked Yes | 52c | 1,817$938 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$879.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +93.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 35c | 1,782$632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$632.3 | 254 | 22%56 W · 198 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60d1…0c8fbacked No | 61c | 1,700$1,041 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,041 | 155 | 39.4%61 W · 94 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a97…593dbacked Yes | 54c | 1,688$915 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$773.18 | 87 | 28.7%25 W · 62 L | -14.9wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked Yes | 27c | 1,543$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,127.51 | 141 | 41.8%59 W · 82 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 25c | 1,541$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,150.96 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 75c | 1,364$1,025 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,025.09 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -5.9wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x31ba…9255backed Yes | 23c | 1,289$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$988.6 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 12c | 1,211$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.22 | 233 | 3.4%8 W · 225 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bb7…dad6backed Yes | 19c | 1,200$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$969.19 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabbd…f261backed Yes | 65c | 1,142$738 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.19 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.31per pick | 42cpaid | -82.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7748…58d7backed Yes | 20c | 1,081$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$863.43 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 29cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbebf…4e07backed No | 78c | 1,071$838 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$838.17 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | +6.3wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x12d9…f992backed Yes | 41c | 1,044$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$611.71 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x42c4…93a7backed Yes | 30c | 1,000$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$700 | 61 | 27.9%17 W · 44 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…dc98backed Yes | 24c | 920.08$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$699.44 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +23%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3491…bb86backed Yes | 22c | 895.73$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$698.91 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 14cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd61e…c34fbacked Yes | 27c | 883.59$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$646.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44fc…9728backed Yes | 41c | 763.58$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.86 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c90…5bacbacked No | 36c | 731.31$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.27 | 53 | 20.8%11 W · 42 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9fa…c365backed No | 3c | 704.47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4e…1f10backed Yes | 56c | 628.24$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.84 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa135…68b8backed Yes | 28c | 617.92$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.52 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fdf…9d95backed Yes | 21c | 615.13$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.04 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x776b…7251backed Yes | 17c | 500$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | +3.8wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x00da…2fe4backed No | 75c | 500$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +3.1wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +70.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6a…be7ebacked No | 74c | 500$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeae5…0720backed No | 78c | 472.96$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.04 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b5f…1d83backed Yes | 29c | 457.46$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.01 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e8…904cbacked Yes | 22c | 450.15$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.41 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7371…cadebacked Yes | 57c | 443.05$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.63 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e3…2c54backed Yes | 49c | 441.14$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.73 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +61.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d32…0fb9backed Yes | 24c | 415.72$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.76 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +3.8wins | +0.35per pick | 56cpaid | +82.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 24c | 403.1$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.63 | 357 | 12.9%46 W · 311 L | -29.9wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 77c | 400$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306 | 167 | 40.7%68 W · 99 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed No | 8c | 391.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dfc…df63backed Yes | 30c | 387.71$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.51 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x726b…3d01backed No | 69c | 304.14$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.63 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae5…4f22backed Yes | 45c | 300.37$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.99 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaec3…22dfbacked No | 80c | 300$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -6.3wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd57f…8966backed No | 76c | 300$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae03…378cbacked Yes | 34c | 293.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +193.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a70…2828backed Yes | 17c | 293.36$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.36 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98f9…3386backed Yes | 30c | 269.63$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.62 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 21c | 263.26$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.08 | 349 | 5.7%20 W · 329 L | -25.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x87f4…9ed0backed No | 59c | 261.16$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.91 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e53…6ba9backed No | 70c | 235$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.5 | 77 | 45.5%35 W · 42 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x196c…0ffdbacked Yes | 30c | 235$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.5 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda4a…2184backed Yes | 26c | 224.71$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +91.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 28c | 215.78$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.54 | 179 | 48%86 W · 93 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93b7…7d51backed No | 6c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 205 | 51.2%105 W · 100 L | +13.3wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4fc…a926backed No | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…8748backed Yes | 23c | 200$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +8.2wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x321d…ed56backed No | 73c | 200$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Yes | 38c | 199.99$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed No | 21c | 166.46$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.74 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72ae…1dbabacked No | 72c | 161.39$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.11 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd77e…6adcbacked No | 78c | 158.42$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.57 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 68cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 61c | 157.77$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.25 | 333 | 29.7%99 W · 234 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa372…88fdbacked Yes | 51c | 152.95$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.13 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0822…84e5backed No | 65c | 152$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.08 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +6.3wins | +0.21per pick | 42cpaid | +206.5%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0e4c…c962backed No | 70c | 150$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.5 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 69c | 136.71$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.78 | 111 | 45.9%51 W · 60 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e3f…c3dbbacked Yes | 28c | 133.8$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.7 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 30c | 133.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.02 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +4.3wins | +0.17per pick | 14cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x88a4…510cbacked No | 78c | 127.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72b0…b9ccbacked Yes | 36c | 127.51$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe281…f411backed No | 72c | 124.68$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.95 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.17per pick | 44cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf6cb…3f69backed No | 58c | 121.19$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 131 | 34.4%45 W · 86 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 74c | 120.31$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.57 | 193 | 36.3%70 W · 123 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe41e…b257backed Yes | 42c | 113.35$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +136.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7491…ada0backed No | 79c | 108.85$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.99 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb272…958fbacked Yes | 46c | 106$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +119.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90b9…1951backed Yes | 54c | 103.52$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c04…03dfbacked Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec4…ce94backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1861…fa95backed No | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f9c…6eeabacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.03 | 463 | 20.5%95 W · 368 L | -68.1wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa29d…6d1ebacked Yes | 27c | 97$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.81 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +7.0wins | +0.27per pick | 31cpaid | +87.3%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x46b2…eccabacked No | 34c | 90$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad70…4ccfbacked No | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 58 | 22.4%13 W · 45 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8c…ad4bbacked No | 46c | 66.78$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.93 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bitway FDV above $100M one day after launch?this page
- Bitway FDV above $10M one day after launch?Yes won
- Bitway FDV above $200M one day after launch?No won
- Bitway FDV above $20M one day after launch?Yes won
- Bitway FDV above $50M one day after launch?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.