Token Launches · resolved market
Bitway FDV above $50M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeab9184cf28a104a3726bdf95efbe812021bbc6b947275c4e109453df3366614
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $100,069
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $85,192
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $100,069 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 0c | 6,321$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.34 | 206 | 1.9%4 W · 202 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64d9…46e6backed No | 26c | 6,104$1,604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,604.22 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa1…c691backed Yes | 62c | 5,172$3,207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,965.4 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +4.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd61e…c34fbacked No | 9c | 3,757$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.69 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e9…63d0backed No | 36c | 3,190$1,138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,138.22 | 178 | 59.6%106 W · 72 L | +18.3wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +21%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe6de…12f7backed No | 0c | 2,572$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee1…16debacked No | 38c | 2,500$950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$950 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed No | 1c | 2,101$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 1c | 2,100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 233 | 3.4%8 W · 225 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e4…5bbcbacked No | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 61 | 23%14 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 10c | 1,850$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.71 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…33fbbacked Yes | 79c | 1,793$1,416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2647…d6e7backed Yes | 78c | 1,617$1,266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.83 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…476cbacked No | 1c | 1,590$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c90…5bacbacked No | 1c | 1,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 53 | 20.8%11 W · 42 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 2c | 1,344$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.56 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…0523backed Yes | 80c | 1,250$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.18 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd221…54fdbacked No | 1c | 1,084$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6138…97a0backed Yes | 76c | 1,075$821 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.02 | 159 | 41.5%66 W · 93 L | +9.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d4d…b3f4backed No | 18c | 1,016$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.36 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +10.3wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x197c…9b94backed No | 19c | 999.99$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 130 | 23.8%31 W · 99 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e37…cccbbacked No | 11c | 999.99$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab1c…35a7backed No | 3c | 999.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60d1…0c8fbacked No | 16c | 999.99$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164 | 155 | 39.4%61 W · 94 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00da…2fe4backed No | 15c | 999.98$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +3.1wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +70.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9d32…0fb9backed Yes | 59c | 969.59$571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.49 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +3.8wins | +0.35per pick | 56cpaid | +82.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b2…26b9backed No | 35c | 940$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3491…bb86backed No | 9c | 895.8$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 14cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x776b…7251backed Yes | 67c | 877.1$584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.63 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | +3.8wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf25…da09backed No | 29c | 681.11$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 8c | 639.97$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.3 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x598e…6640backed No | 47c | 633.66$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.25per pick | 40cpaid | -79.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa94…3601backed Yes | 79c | 630.23$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.23 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6cb…3f69backed No | 17c | 597.63$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.61 | 131 | 34.4%45 W · 86 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c25…8d52backed No | 12c | 542.35$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.38 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…03c5backed Yes | 62c | 509.78$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.81 | 76 | 57.9%44 W · 32 L | +8.9wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa3…3044backed No | 20c | 500.89$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedaa…5786backed No | 16c | 500.38$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.88 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93b7…7d51backed No | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 205 | 51.2%105 W · 100 L | +13.3wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 7c | 500$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 244 | 2%5 W · 239 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x731f…1246backed No | 15c | 499.97$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +5.5wins | +0.26per pick | 21cpaid | +125.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 12c | 495.76$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.12 | 357 | 12.9%46 W · 311 L | -29.9wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b5f…1d83backed No | 5c | 413.49$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.67 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 5c | 409.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 254 | 1.6%4 W · 250 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e3…5889backed No | 40c | 400$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bb7…dad6backed Yes | 58c | 399.99$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x151d…4497backed No | 19c | 399.97$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.99 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e53…6ba9backed No | 29c | 379.98$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 77 | 45.5%35 W · 42 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c4d…78e9backed Yes | 62c | 359.24$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fdf…9d95backed No | 32c | 348.02$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.37 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44fc…4d42backed No | 20c | 300$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36ce…daddbacked Yes | 79c | 300$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e0…d94abacked No | 43c | 225.99$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.18 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b92…5ba3backed No | 19c | 215.78$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 22cpaid | +51.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked No | 6c | 203.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25dc…e33bbacked No | 36c | 200.31$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.45 | 145 | 48.3%70 W · 75 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d6d…5144backed No | 28c | 200$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae7…9603backed No | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | +9.0wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc7…116fbacked No | 39c | 200$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd57f…8966backed No | 38c | 200$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc4…b15dbacked No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…59c5backed Yes | 78c | 193.14$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.27 | 24 | 83.3%20 W · 4 L | +3.2wins | +0.13per pick | 70cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…5066backed No | 17c | 147.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.06 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad70…4ccfbacked No | 9c | 123.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 58 | 22.4%13 W · 45 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 22c | 109.75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.33 | 349 | 5.7%20 W · 329 L | -25.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 20c | 108.96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 111 | 45.9%51 W · 60 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf4…2e25backed Yes | 57c | 105.26$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.26 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +82.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes | 55c | 104.6$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.07 | 83 | 44.6%37 W · 46 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ac9…30c7backed No | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbef7…0b4dbacked No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7633…1a22backed No | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeae5…0720backed Yes | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 17c | 99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 237 | 7.2%17 W · 220 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca6…73e3backed Yes | 50c | 98.16$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.08 | 83 | 27.7%23 W · 60 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8587…88f9backed Yes | 75c | 97.8$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.45 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +58%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fa9…526abacked Yes | 74c | 95$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 63cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98f9…3386backed Yes | 77c | 92.08$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.89 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c5…7b85backed No | 34c | 88.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe281…f411backed No | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.17per pick | 44cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde01…5ffdbacked Yes | 77c | 70$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -56%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb45c…9cf5backed No | 43c | 69.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x47e7…7c61backed No | 22c | 68.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f90…cc98backed No | 38c | 65.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 66c | 56.73$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.17 | 463 | 20.5%95 W · 368 L | -68.1wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x29a9…4fb7backed Yes | 71c | 56.34$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6684…95d1backed No | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd02…6bbdbacked No | 30c | 49.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 42c | 42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7781…ea23backed Yes | 79c | 33.21$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1b5cbacked Yes | 66c | 30.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.52 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +140.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 130 | 54.6%71 W · 59 L | +10.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46cf…f8f4backed Yes | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…cf43backed Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bitway FDV above $50M one day after launch?this page
- Bitway FDV above $100M one day after launch?Yes won
- Bitway FDV above $10M one day after launch?Yes won
- Bitway FDV above $200M one day after launch?No won
- Bitway FDV above $20M one day after launch?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.