TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Venezuela · resolved market

Will Maduro's rule survive a US military engagement?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$189,924
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$173,024

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $189,924 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 192 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Venezuela
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x662c…bfe7backed No74c9,807$7,276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,530.586100%6 W · 0 L+2.0wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+51%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes18c6,028$1,067 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,067.275219.2%10 W · 42 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-35.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes2c5,123$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.77319.7%3 W · 28 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick3cpaid-50%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes17c4,930$833 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$832.582245.5%10 W · 12 L+3.2wins+0.14per pick31cpaid+118.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x0673…2e81backed Yes9c4,316$379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379100%0 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc021…1fa8backed Yes27c4,210$1,139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,138.892941.4%12 W · 17 L+3.3wins+0.11per pick30cpaid-8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf7e2…b2afbacked No80c4,185$3,336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$849.31333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-58.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes1c4,000$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.25313.2%1 W · 30 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick2cpaid+61.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60a9…5a71backed Yes15c2,861$439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$439.396836.8%25 W · 43 L+5.0wins+0.07per pick29cpaid+15.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7744…999ebacked Yes4c2,675$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.751315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-73.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5666…c630backed Yes27c2,500$685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6852030%6 W · 14 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick21cpaid-5.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x17ce…beecbacked Yes4c2,482$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.1540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-26.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes9c2,312$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.322714.8%4 W · 23 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick11cpaid-43.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0bfb…26a7backed Yes2c2,300$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.6650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-10.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01a4…0064backed Yes4c2,035$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.58425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-59%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes7c1,917$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.661644.9%8 W · 156 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick6cpaid-75.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed Yes7c1,916$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.7260%0 W · 6 L-2.6wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0f2a…fbccbacked Yes37c1,910$715 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$715425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-37.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed Yes19c1,898$354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353.931729.4%5 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-31.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c83…72bebacked Yes7c1,812$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.97450%2 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.34per pick16cpaid+102.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed Yes9c1,769$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.561540%6 W · 9 L+2.0wins+0.14per pick26cpaid-7.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x83a2…9452backed Yes3c1,630$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.412365.2%15 W · 8 L+5.1wins+0.22per pick43cpaid+51.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes6c1,482$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.14633.2%2 W · 61 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick7cpaid-79.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x000d…758ebacked Yes11c1,465$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.25475%3 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.45per pick30cpaid+153.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes3c1,413$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.38595.1%3 W · 56 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick3cpaid-10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc412…592dbacked No77c1,368$1,059 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$308.95333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick62cpaid-56.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf3d…56b9backed Yes15c1,343$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x47ca…88dbbacked Yes14c1,337$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick24cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf6e…b45bbacked No77c1,320$1,014 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$305.76540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-48.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes5c1,301$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.38326.3%2 W · 30 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-18%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes3c1,274$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.33330%0 W · 33 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x807c…f1e3backed Yes2c1,250$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes5c1,211$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.04614.9%3 W · 58 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-27.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes5c1,200$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.6474.3%2 W · 45 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9238…b73ebacked Yes13c1,101$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.82238.7%2 W · 21 L-2.5wins-0.11per pick19cpaid-84.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x357e…2a0cbacked Yes15c1,096$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.331978.9%15 W · 4 L+5.5wins+0.29per pick50cpaid+81.9%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes4c1,075$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.82320%0 W · 32 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes4c1,072$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.622619.2%5 W · 21 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-27.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2200…0f2dbacked Yes7c992.05$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.9166.3%1 W · 15 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick12cpaid-88%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed Yes29c966.72$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.754126.8%11 W · 30 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-27.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd950…ad1bbacked No70c961.94$677 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.31936.8%7 W · 12 L-2.0wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-29.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x90be…c800backed Yes30c949.99$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.52119%4 W · 17 L-3.1wins-0.15per pick34cpaid-61.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x8920…bdb2backed No72c849.53$609 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.96757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes6c775.39$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.13449.1%4 W · 40 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick4cpaid+50.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5927…7cacbacked Yes9c757.64$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.2530%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x017b…1ef4backed No66c691.95$459 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.77714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick27cpaid-78.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb214…44aabacked Yes13c629.19$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.8110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x08c8…1da2backed Yes31c617.99$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.96666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick61cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc909…d4a4backed Yes4c585.73$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ede…b67bbacked No69c580.12$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.12425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-63.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ca1…13b5backed Yes9c566$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.941241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x008d…6958backed Yes21c561.95$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.39450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-32.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8593…c931backed No79c555.15$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.03540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-43%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x588c…1bf4backed No68c548.8$373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.891931.6%6 W · 13 L-3.5wins-0.18per pick50cpaid-47.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7bb3…2682backed Yes26c530.8$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.54837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-35.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedd1…b571backed Yes29c510$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0989…1b82backed Yes40c502.47$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-31.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b76…bf1dbacked No75c500$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a91…5267backed Yes17c500$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$851428.6%4 W · 10 L+1.5wins+0.11per pick18cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked Yes12c476$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6000…4a5ebacked Yes38c462.87$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.89450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-14.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c7b…2a87backed Yes32c450.83$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.65837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-11.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes16c419.93$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.46521.5%14 W · 51 L-3.8wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-14.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6e14…3003backed No71c405$287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.45475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick62cpaid+25.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdcef…7388backed Yes9c400$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352010%2 W · 18 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick5cpaid+54.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe52…32c5backed Yes13c400$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$521827.8%5 W · 13 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-38.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac06…f4f0backed Yes21c398.93$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x846d…4ab2backed Yes25c389$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes10c389$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.683321.2%7 W · 26 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-22.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd45…59b2backed Yes5c373.58$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.982030%6 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-38.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1af5…89babacked Yes15c329.71$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.12850%4 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+24.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcd96…cbdcbacked No60c320.39$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.731625%4 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-51.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc0f…0522backed No78c301.31$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.95475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.14per pick61cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28a6…86a7backed No73c300$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.1wins+0.27per pick61cpaid+57.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc5e4…28aabacked Yes14c300$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes40c300$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1206841.2%28 W · 40 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf416…6ec9backed No77c296.6$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.062842.9%12 W · 16 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+47%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe434…a77abacked Yes5c284.05$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2230%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcfdc…5a2ebacked No77c280$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.05366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.25per pick42cpaid+41.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes5c278.6$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3214.8%1 W · 20 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick10cpaid-71.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes21c261.18$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.06633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-56.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x23d8…710cbacked No65c259.91$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.17966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick65cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b93…9ec4backed No70c250$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$752100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+82.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5885…6562backed No75c250$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.5333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-55.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5880…a675backed Yes18c241.68$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.5710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x72ab…1a3ebacked No73c238.67$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.552867.9%19 W · 9 L+3.0wins+0.11per pick57cpaid+25%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x91c7…b576backed Yes15c218$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.691040%4 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick47cpaid+0.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x195d…446abacked Yes14c214.84$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a0f…859abacked No70c214.29$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.29366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9deb…8108backed Yes14c214.29$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5fc5…610ebacked Yes13c202.02$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.95147.1%1 W · 13 L-3.3wins-0.23per pick30cpaid-90.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed No72c200.01$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.65121.6%11 W · 40 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-36.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes27c200$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$544641.3%19 W · 27 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes16c200$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-13.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x28f3…af5ebacked No76c200$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$481100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad52…11acbacked Yes9c200$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.82828.6%8 W · 20 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick20cpaid-4.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x437d…d079backed Yes10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9722…5304backed No69c198.25$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.68366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5567…aeedbacked No77c194.44$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.331850%9 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes8c180.72$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.468013.8%11 W · 69 L-6.7wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-52.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.