Middle East · resolved market
US x Iran meeting by February 28, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3f5983ccea68ad5a67f7f75823e68812ff9f4e6050bb7bf753efc17c1325d658
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $208,361
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $213,715
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $208,361 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 193 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4497…979dbacked No | 60c | 11,625$6,998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,998.33 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75d4…9b2ebacked No | 2c | 8,402$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9e7…045abacked No | 8c | 8,098$631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 37c | 6,674$2,457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,456.95 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x96ef…5523backed Yes | 76c | 6,004$4,577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,427.02 | 118 | 42.4%50 W · 68 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x198a…3ca3backed No | 65c | 5,416$3,499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,499.39 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda9e…ac09backed Yes | 77c | 4,478$3,460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,018.84 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 39c | 4,377$1,712 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,665.55 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5436…e25dbacked Yes | 73c | 3,834$2,814 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,019.73 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 41cpaid | +34%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 39c | 3,752$1,468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,283.61 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc406…07d9backed No | 3c | 3,302$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.4 | 103 | 54.4%56 W · 47 L | +7.3wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 28c | 2,832$791 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,040.69 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed No | 21c | 2,574$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550.86 | 486 | 30.5%148 W · 338 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked Yes | 39c | 2,317$895 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,421.66 | 409 | 39.6%162 W · 247 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 25c | 2,271$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$574.66 | 36 | 0%0 W · 36 L | -5.2wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0c…146fbacked No | 4c | 2,270$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes | 24c | 2,211$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,691.21 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | +77.8wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 76+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed No | 2c | 1,992$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 6c | 1,897$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.03 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeafc…0d5cbacked Yes | 20c | 1,848$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,479.03 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed No | 4c | 1,839$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.85 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 1,767$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.66 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e4…5bbcbacked No | 13c | 1,588$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.28 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +71.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 6c | 1,561$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.44 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40ac…b57fbacked No | 45c | 1,510$684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$683.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 46c | 1,500$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690 | 212 | 59.9%127 W · 85 L | +21.8wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8fec…b6b0backed No | 48c | 1,435$689 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$688.86 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 36c | 1,410$509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$901.15 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 45c | 1,409$638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$770.61 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 6c | 1,250$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.62 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd42…8895backed Yes | 27c | 1,184$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$864.32 | 74 | 39.2%29 W · 45 L | +15.0wins | +0.20per pick | 19cpaid | +102%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7a…565dbacked No | 9c | 1,164$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeec5…b6febacked Yes | 78c | 1,135$880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.58 | 123 | 62.6%77 W · 46 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed No | 5c | 1,096$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.15 | 247 | 6.9%17 W · 230 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550 | 264 | 29.2%77 W · 187 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddf…2c83backed No | 3c | 999.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 281 | 26.3%74 W · 207 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x278c…9817backed Yes | 20c | 995.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$795.67 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.32per pick | 23cpaid | +126.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 10c | 985.09$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.46 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0159…4f56backed Yes | 15c | 945.6$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$804.85 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +101.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked No | 6c | 908.19$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.54 | 113 | 20.4%23 W · 90 L | +10.2wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 18c | 888$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$728.16 | 156 | 25%39 W · 117 L | +17.9wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +79.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb04a…acfcbacked No | 20c | 853.04$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.87 | 290 | 27.9%81 W · 209 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaadc…d8efbacked Yes | 47c | 794.81$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.01 | 66 | 36.4%24 W · 42 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ec2…532abacked No | 6c | 718.43$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked No | 6c | 714.13$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.91 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5060…a780backed Yes | 25c | 683.9$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513.9 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d3c…07aebacked No | 3c | 674.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 8cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 70c | 656.84$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.27 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfca7…52e3backed No | 15c | 647.73$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 55c | 646.19$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.34 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf769…0114backed No | 53c | 603.62$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.99 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | +5.6wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x46f2…e1dcbacked No | 13c | 602.86$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 27cpaid | +1,401.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe5e…8054backed No | 17c | 600$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 55 | 25.5%14 W · 41 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd86e…ee3ebacked No | 15c | 589.96$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.49 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | -8.3wins | -0.24per pick | 42cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd447…34eabacked No | 7c | 577.52$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.35per pick | 55cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6992…6c1dbacked No | 19c | 572.11$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.16 | 222 | 27%60 W · 162 L | +17.8wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf100…2fcabacked No | 78c | 556.8$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.3 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8241…f368backed Yes | 14c | 535.62$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.62 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd84b…0df3backed No | 15c | 514.95$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.97 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +9.2wins | +0.19per pick | 34cpaid | +82.2%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xaa64…a43dbacked No | 10c | 513.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | +8.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 34c | 506.84$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.55 | 93 | 53.8%50 W · 43 L | +12.3wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 61 | 29.5%18 W · 43 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x748a…3c56backed No | 37c | 499.99$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183 | 185 | 31.9%59 W · 126 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf49…6cfebacked Yes | 22c | 448$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.44 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10d7…eb3bbacked Yes | 73c | 442.56$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.13 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked No | 11c | 424.98$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 156 | 26.9%42 W · 114 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -38%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 6c | 416.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 272 | 33.8%92 W · 180 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35b2…8abdbacked No | 71c | 406.32$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.36 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…7cd3backed No | 18c | 400$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 90 | 31.1%28 W · 62 L | -7.6wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +69.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…f17abacked Yes | 26c | 400$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295 | 98 | 55.1%54 W · 44 L | +24.9wins | +0.25per pick | 30cpaid | +76.8%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed Yes | 10c | 395$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.65 | 382 | 47.6%182 W · 200 L | +37.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 14c | 352.4$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.33 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x450e…80aebacked No | 24c | 348.59$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.86 | 128 | 30.5%39 W · 89 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5baf…0cfcbacked No | 14c | 347.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbef7…0b4dbacked Yes | 14c | 343.11$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.45 | 77 | 27.3%21 W · 56 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa89e…4ab4backed Yes | 80c | 338$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.6 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -5.2wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x52a1…8af8backed No | 5c | 331.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x171e…e046backed No | 15c | 326.68$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5930…236abacked Yes | 24c | 325$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.25 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f98…8aa8backed No | 12c | 324.97$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5059…720cbacked No | 69c | 304.75$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.35 | 60 | 68.3%41 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb25f…a460backed Yes | 20c | 300.44$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.45 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x557e…5007backed No | 11c | 300.22$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.78 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | +8.4wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +92.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed No | 11c | 291.33$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.96 | 140 | 36.4%51 W · 89 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2641…062fbacked No | 13c | 285.4$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1bc…5814backed No | 16c | 272.32$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe91e…256abacked Yes | 15c | 258.95$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.95 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.40per pick | 20cpaid | +215.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd581…bd3bbacked No | 15c | 256.74$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.64 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 29cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…5aa0backed No | 16c | 256.25$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 219 | 26.5%58 W · 161 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8212…5933backed No | 22c | 250$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.05 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89d5…b232backed No | 12c | 250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd12b…43a9backed No | 16c | 250$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -43%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x419f…e853backed No | 8c | 231.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -89.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe267…86e4backed Yes | 14c | 222.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.23 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd18d…fc51backed No | 8c | 221.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa3…ea8dbacked No | 5c | 203.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 18cpaid | +164.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca5…3af6backed No | 12c | 201.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed No | 19c | 200.45$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.67 | 174 | 49.4%86 W · 88 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed No | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 148 | 27%40 W · 108 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 20c | 200$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.45 | 360 | 35.3%127 W · 233 L | -30.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US x Iran meeting by February 28, 2026?this page
- US x Iran meeting by February 21, 2026?No won
- US x Iran meeting by March 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.