Middle East · resolved market
US x Iran meeting by March 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3a10862d5141b1176adc5f85cfd19f7fe962b55358ebf248e5dfce4d8531ad76
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $68,580
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $66,248
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,580 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 7c | 3,103$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.98 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5060…a780backed Yes | 66c | 2,547$1,688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$859.31 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed No | 18c | 2,470$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.4 | 486 | 30.5%148 W · 338 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed No | 13c | 2,419$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.82 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 16c | 2,148$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.5 | 36 | 0%0 W · 36 L | -5.2wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x198a…3ca3backed Yes | 76c | 1,700$1,293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.24 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 6c | 1,332$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 272 | 33.8%92 W · 180 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed No | 14c | 1,224$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.88 | 140 | 36.4%51 W · 89 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 4c | 1,219$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.91 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 18c | 1,005$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.66 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f8…8520backed No | 36c | 971.57$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.3 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce6…16a3backed No | 6c | 954.32$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.12 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 26cpaid | +104.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 25c | 947$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.88 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x563a…f578backed No | 6c | 869$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.45 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 5c | 796.18$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.61 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0b21…deb6backed No | 42c | 756.28$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.79 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 4c | 699.73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked No | 7c | 677.48$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.58 | 156 | 26.9%42 W · 114 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -38%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1847…6a63backed No | 9c | 649.97$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.1 | 38 | 5.3%2 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -88.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57b0…76f4backed Yes | 63c | 572$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.06 | 100 | 45%45 W · 55 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…38efbacked No | 19c | 562.23$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.37 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -5.1wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6992…6c1dbacked No | 9c | 558$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 222 | 27%60 W · 162 L | +17.8wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaadc…d8efbacked No | 37c | 525.31$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.87 | 66 | 36.4%24 W · 42 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed No | 3c | 450$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed No | 8c | 421$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.34 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x540a…64c9backed No | 42c | 420$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.4 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | -8.8wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed Yes | 61c | 400$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 154 | 36.4%56 W · 98 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf19…6402backed Yes | 60c | 400$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158 | 103 | 35.9%37 W · 66 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf3…57f7backed No | 4c | 398.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…5d99backed Yes | 58c | 386$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.12 | 127 | 44.9%57 W · 70 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +91.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd47…805abacked Yes | 75c | 365.38$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.78 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x450e…80aebacked No | 19c | 339.76$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.62 | 128 | 30.5%39 W · 89 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7022…f64ebacked No | 7c | 337.04$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.13 | 99 | 42.4%42 W · 57 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +23%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked No | 33c | 320$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.6 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0159…4f56backed Yes | 60c | 299.83$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.11 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +101.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf769…0114backed Yes | 76c | 299.52$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.62 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | +5.6wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5059…720cbacked Yes | 78c | 295.87$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.1 | 60 | 68.3%41 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 12c | 284.4$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.79 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb04a…acfcbacked No | 25c | 278.44$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.26 | 290 | 27.9%81 W · 209 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 8c | 265.27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.49 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2863…9d03backed No | 24c | 250$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd12b…43a9backed No | 5c | 242.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -43%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7593…e677backed No | 23c | 233.7$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.7 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac6a…2ed3backed Yes | 78c | 224.14$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.56 | 90 | 68.9%62 W · 28 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 41c | 222.29$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.31 | 207 | 49.3%102 W · 105 L | -23.0wins | -0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 71 | 31%22 W · 49 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde87…11a2backed Yes | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 118 | 33.9%40 W · 78 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf4…59b4backed No | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 200 | 35.5%71 W · 129 L | -11.0wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 26c | 200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35b2…8abdbacked Yes | 59c | 200$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x520b…100abacked No | 40c | 196$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.58 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -6.1wins | -0.47per pick | 62cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked No | 8c | 174.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 109 | 13.8%15 W · 94 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…7cd3backed No | 8c | 150$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 90 | 31.1%28 W · 62 L | -7.6wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +69.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8081…6d62backed Yes | 62c | 145.25$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.68 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97c7…db3fbacked Yes | 72c | 144.77$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.21 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4262…abaabacked Yes | 70c | 137.69$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.93 | 45 | 66.7%30 W · 15 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaacc…0dc6backed No | 9c | 116$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 15cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…688ebacked No | 14c | 105.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 30c | 99.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.35 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x88bb…8d2cbacked No | 35c | 98.48$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.95 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c65…3e45backed Yes | 72c | 95.93$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.94 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +81.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked No | 23c | 94.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 41c | 89.09$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 159 | 51.6%82 W · 77 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x083f…a55fbacked No | 31c | 80.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47ff…916fbacked No | 44c | 80$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0671…962dbacked No | 21c | 68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +210.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x173a…eb85backed No | 37c | 66.38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.56 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed No | 40c | 59.79$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 139 | 35.3%49 W · 90 L | -14.4wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2796…e282backed No | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51ec…05fdbacked No | 23c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 60cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab78…fac0backed Yes | 65c | 36.54$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +91.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 33c | 31.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 114 | 52.6%60 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x526e…3bd0backed Yes | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5e…5c24backed Yes | 70c | 17.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 36 | 77.8%28 W · 8 L | +6.2wins | +0.17per pick | 60cpaid | +38%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US x Iran meeting by March 31, 2026?this page
- US x Iran meeting by February 21, 2026?No won
- US x Iran meeting by February 28, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.